Well, here's what we can say: the gas issue is becoming almost the mainstream for most of the serious European media for a reason - the situation there is now really developing extremely unpleasant.
If the European markets are not already shaking, then they are palpably shaking.
No wonder: on the one hand, the gas price on the spot markets in Europe has renewed its maximum and exceeded last Friday, August 6, in the EU's largest gas hub TTF in the Netherlands, the level of $ 540 per 1,000 cubic meters.
m. If you are interested in details, then by 11:30 Moscow time, September gas futures on the TTF index (once again: the most liquid hub in Europe) rose to $ 546.3 per 1,000 cubic meters.
m. At the same time, at the opening of trading, the price was $ 542.6, and then dropped to $ 535.
At the same time, the trend for price growth itself is quite long-term and obvious, and even the most conservative analysts do not expect any significant decrease at least until the middle of next winter.
And even then it is unlikely.
But this, as they say, is only the first half of the question.
To be honest, many experts were quite expecting such a price increase, but the fact that some Western wholesale buyers tied long contracts with a Russian supplier also for the spot, believing that in this way they twisted the hands of the Russian "Gazprom" - so, excuse me, lived -there was a girl - herself, a fool, and to blame.
Nobody forced me.
Even, in general, the opposite ...
Much worse is the other.
If you believe the statistics from Bank of America (and they are deep enough in this topic, even if from another continent), then underground gas storage facilities (UGS) in Europe today are not just at five-year lows. They are specifically less than 60% full, with a seasonal rate of at least 10% more. Well, the most important trouble for both European UGS facilities and for spots came from the place where for some reason it was not expected at all: LNG imports to Europe this year not only did not grow, but this summer it has completely dropped by almost a quarter. by 24% - and this is compared to last year, when the European economy was interrupted from lockdown to lockdown, for a second.
At the same time, despite the fact that many Western media out of habit blame Russia for what is happening, in particular the accident and fire at the largest Gazprom enterprise for the processing of hydrocarbons in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which led to a decrease in pumping through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, -First, let us note that no long-term obligations of Gazprom on supplies were violated.
And secondly - yes, the accident is certainly serious, but we also observed a trend of rising prices and decreasing reserves in European UGS facilities before it.
And there is almost no doubt: we will observe after the elimination of the consequences.
It was just that one thing was superimposed on the other, which created an additional effect - and nothing more.
Another thing is more interesting: despite the obviously unpleasant and almost pre-crisis situation in Europe (just to illustrate how gas markets affect adjacent ones: Bloomberg writes that in Germany wholesale electricity prices have added more than 60%, and the BBC informs that the British national regulator in Since August 6, Ofgem allowed to increase tariffs by 10% - then it will go along the chain, there is no doubt about it), not only the Russian Gazprom, which is supposed to do this, but also the largest energy concerns in Europe who are his partners. This means that they are at least informed about the current state of affairs and fully agree with the new transport strategy of the Russian gas giant - and it would somehow be extremely naive not to understand.
We emphasize: exactly "at least".
It is most likely that this change of strategy by the Russian gas giant was, as they say, agreed in partnership with European concerns.
And there is almost no doubt with whom exactly there was a direct and direct conversation.
As a matter of fact, everything is quite simple: the European energy markets are being reformatted for a new basic transit country, which, after the soon commissioning of Nord Stream 2 (try not to certify it in such extreme conditions, by the way), it is clearly Germany.
Already right now, consolidating for itself such transit capacities of Russian gas, which Ukraine once had in its best times.
Therefore, in fact, Germany does not bother: it, in principle, is happy with everything.
And the current high prices in the spot markets as well.
And they, together with Gazprom, will begin filling UGS facilities immediately after the launch of Nord Stream 2: this is, in general, an everyday matter. At the same time, by the way, it quite vividly illustrates how the European markets "desperately need" the competitive Alpine, German and Austrian UGS facilities ex-Soviet UGS facilities located in Western Ukraine. With whom, like a village idiot with candy wrappers, the current Ukrainian "gas experts" and the very mysterious Kiev authorities in this regard, rush about. Guys, you, in fact, are nothing more than competitors to European UGS facilities. And the same Germans and Austrians can buy them in Western Ukraine for the sole purpose of shutting them up and never opening them again. Although what is the point of paying money, if the Ukrainians themselves cope with everything perfectly for free, is also, in general, not an idle question. And in order to understand this,there is no need to be seven spans in the forehead, it is enough to look at the current statistics on the occupancy of European UGS facilities (also to me, Newton's binomial): they cannot fill their own for objective and subjective reasons.
Your “idle power” to them, excuse me, why?
Well, as for our own country and Gazprom, it’s corny for us now, too, a little not up to all this.
And that is why the current state of affairs is quite satisfactory for us: the Russian gas giant is now simply indicated a different priority direction - not just long-awaited by a decent part of the population, but also banally more reliable.
These are, excuse me, domestic markets - and these are now not just declarations, but real deeds and real investments.
Investments, by the way, are truly colossal, but so that it is not boring at all, plus all other "amenities" - direct presidential control.
Especially you will not clear up.
At the same time, of course, the Russian gas giant (there is such a suspicion) is by no means going to object to the rise in prices for its products in Europe.
Yes, and the German partners are behaving, despite all the current difficulties, much more adequately than the previous "transients" from the young European democracy.
Well, why not support them in such a good endeavor then?
And this is all despite the fact that, in fact, the record rise in spot prices in the TTF gas hub in the Netherlands will not have any effect on the domestic Russian markets.
Everything is simple here: in contrast to the domestic oil industry with its “tax maneuver,” which maximally binds domestic Russian prices for oil and oil products to world prices (which is why there are endless “gasoline crises”), we managed to maintain a two-circuit pricing system on the gas markets.
And the domestic gas prices in Russia, any movements on the spot markets in Europe, fortunately for us, do not have anything to do with it.
Nevertheless, watching what is happening there, of course, is very, very interesting.
The most important thing is not to get carried away too much.
The European gas equations are certainly very elegant and instructive, including for you and me.
But the country, even in the energy sector, now (either unfortunately, or fortunately, but in any case, in reality) faces a lot of much more urgent and mundane tasks.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.