The storm of falling Afghan districts into the hands of the Taliban, reaching half the number of Afghan districts, with the beginning of the US withdrawal from the country last May, clearly indicated the fragility of the Afghan government, especially as it was accompanied by the fall of most of the Afghan crossings with neighboring countries, such as Sherkhan Bandar with Tajikistan. Islam Qalaa is with Iran, Turgundy is with Turkmenistan, and Spin Boldak is with Pakistan.
But the chances of war, which some of them suggested with the rapid progress of the Taliban movement, came from hindering it in the face of the movement, so the latter curbed it as a result of the international mobilization against it, in order to avoid sanctions and consequences that may not be tolerated, so it resorted to negotiations and statements calling for a political solution, with visits to neighboring countries in the hope of easing international tensions Regional rights are right, but they are moves that have been questioned by their opponents in Kabul, such as government negotiator Nader Naderi when he said, "They want to kill time, and keep this process half-alive as a way to gain international legitimacy. They are not serious about negotiating."
Pakistan - which is fully aware of the magnitude of the risks as well as the magnitude of the benefits and benefits that awaits it in Afghanistan - is worried about the future, as it is fully aware that any military progress of the Taliban and its control of the reins of affairs will cause it enormous international pressures demanding it to rein in the movement affiliated with it
At a time when the movement was advancing in the north, south and center and controlling the crossings, its delegation headed by Shahabuddin Dilawar was holding talks with Russian envoy Zamir Kabulov and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, as well as with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, while the various Taliban spokesmen were sending signals. Reassurance about their preference for a political solution, without closing doors in the face of a military solution. The cities controlled by the government forces have become besieged and dismembered as a result of the movement’s control of the main roads between cities, and with the absence of the US Air Force from the battle, the Taliban forces advanced on the ground at first, and the noose increased On government forces in cities and barracks, with roads cut off and the loss of air cover capable of breaking the siege or of providing military and food support to the besieged forces.
Two days of intense negotiations ended in Doha in the presence of representatives of the Afghan government headed by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, and the Taliban movement headed by Abdul Ghani Baradar, which resulted in one important thing that the Afghan-Afghan negotiating sessions might not have seen before, a joint statement that emphasizes moving forward in Solve the Afghan issue peacefully.
It must be noted here that none of the problematic points between the two opposing sides were resolved during the two negotiating days, and in parallel with this Afghan-Afghan move, there is the movement of the four troika, namely America, China, Russia and Pakistan, which ended 3 intense meetings since last October. Its joint statement emphasized the political settlement, and the need for the Afghan parties to push for this option, with the troika's desire to involve Tehran with it, but the latter expressed its refusal to enter as long as America is leading the troika process.
Taliban leaders are fully aware of the sensitivity of the international reality to their military successes, and this is why the message of the movement's leader, Hebatullah Akhundzadeh, came on Eid al-Adha calling for a "political solution despite the military victories achieved by the fighters of the Islamic Emirate," according to the distributed message.
The statements of the movement's official spokesmen sought to emphasize the content of the Taliban leader's message, but it seems clear that the movement's strategy depends on "negotiating, pretending to be willing to negotiate, and on the ground he fought fiercely and gained geography."
On the other hand, the countries are not working on a single plan, but there are alternative plans to deal with the multiple scenarios that may surprise them in the Afghan scene. The war scenario is very likely, which means a regional game to fill the Afghan vacuum that appeared with the American withdrawal, and perhaps this is what prompted US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to head to India to meet his counterpart there, amid an American media talk about Washington's request from New Delhi to fill the Afghan vacuum in cooperation with Iran.
"India should cooperate with Iran to fill the void in Afghanistan," said Bruce Riedel, a former senior official in the "CIA" and an expert on the region, "especially since Iran and Afghanistan share a long border, which India lacks, so The latter has always been its gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia through the Iranian window, especially since Iran - according to Riedel - does not deal directly with America.
Pakistan - which is fully aware of the magnitude of the risks as much as the size of the benefits and benefits that awaits it in Afghanistan - is worried about the future, as it is fully aware that any military progress of the Taliban and its control of the reins of affairs will cause it enormous international pressures demanding it to rein in the movement calculated on it, which prompts it always to appeal to the movement To support the formation of a government agreed upon by all parties in order to avoid the civil war that certainly calls for a regional proxy war in Afghanistan, as well as to avoid the international pressures that it may be exposed to if its ally succeeds in resolving the battle, which may isolate it internationally and pay the price economically, which is economically fragile.
Islamabad knows perfectly well that Washington bears part or most of its failure in Afghanistan, and its former director of military intelligence, General Hamid Gul, had indicated this before his death in a television interview in 2014, “When history is written, it will appear how the Pakistani military intelligence, with American support, defeated the Soviet Union, and when you write The second sentence, the military intelligence, with the help of America, defeated America itself.
In addition to all this, Pakistan is fully aware that a Taliban military resolution will mean the societal “Talibanization” of Pakistan, even in the medium and long term, which means doubling international pressure on it.
Iran for its part - which enjoys strong influence among the Afghan government due to its historical relations with the ruling Northern Alliance made up of the Tajik, Uzbek and Shiite Hazara minorities - recalls its recent history with the Afghan Taliban movement when it killed 11 of its diplomats during its invasion of Mazar-i-Sharif, the stronghold of the Northern Alliance in 1996, and killed a leader The Shiite Unity Party, Abd al-Ali Mazari, when it took control of Kabul in the same year, and therefore Iran feels the danger of the Taliban, and seeks to avoid it through negotiations that may not produce anything but may prolong the confrontation, and it is preoccupied with more than one regional file, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tehran had called a while ago -Through the Afghan TV channel "Tolo", to integrate the "Fatimiyoun" Brigade - which is fighting in Syria with the Afghan army - in preparation for fighting the Taliban, and it has been reported for some time that a number of the brigade's fighters - who gained combat experience in Syria - went to Afghanistan.
According to Afghan historical experiences, the chances of war are still stronger than the chances of peace, and perhaps the American interest lies in the permanence of the war today more than the desire for peace, especially when it is looking forward to a proxy war between Russia, China, Iran, India and Pakistan whose theater Afghanistan distracts them all from it, and weakens them. The Chinese opponent, who is looking forward to a global economic Marshall Plan represented in the "One Belt, One Road" plan, is perhaps one of the most likely reasons behind the hasty US withdrawal.
Central Asian countries (Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan) are quarreling in the Afghan conflict with many problems and troubles. As much as they aspire to stability that provides them with the transportation of their gas trapped in their lands due to the Afghan war for decades, as is the case of Turkmenistan, nicknamed “Another Kuwait,” as much as it fears the transmission of fighting and chaos. In the event of a civil war erupting as a result of racial and ethnic extensions between it and Afghanistan, while Pakistan, India and Iran compete to access their markets through Afghan roads, which means that the Afghan game is great in both war and peace.