Taliban slow down

The Taliban's lightning offensive had already covered half of Afghanistan, and there was a feeling that it was not long to wait for the day of their triumphant entry into Kabul.

But then the development of events slowed down.

It is not so soon that a fairy tale takes its toll on how things are done.

One of the reasons is that the United States, it would seem, is almost out, but keeps its foot in the door.

They continue bombing long-suffering Afghanistan, now not from the Bagram airbase, but from their bases in the Persian Gulf.

According to the Americans, they are bombing militants from both the Taliban * and the Islamic State ** and Al-Qaeda ***.

In short, they are bombing everyone and everything, and so they are going to continue until the end of August.

And from September they will stop bombing the Taliban and focus on other militants.

This is probably why the Taliban are in no hurry to launch a decisive attack on Kabul.

England is also bombing Afghanistan. The phantom pains of the British Empire: although England is far away, the desire to participate in the next turmoil is especially strong in London. It is not for nothing that their ships are tested for strength by both the Russian and Chinese maritime borders, and Afghanistan has always attracted the British.

Government forces in Kabul are not rushing into battle. Their units refuse to obey the orders of the command and wait for the development of events. The aviation of the official Kabul does not perform flights - the planes are worn out, the pilots do not want to risk it. American aviation received orders to fly higher so as not to be exposed to air defense fire. And the people vote with their feet. They queue up for passports and visas. A quarter of a million Afghans have already left the country. They flee to Tajikistan, Iran, Turkey; many want to go to Europe. The first preference is Germany, which continues to host refugees. But in Europe, many people don't like the idea of ​​becoming a new home for cocky Afghans, especially Austria. "Let them stay in their region!" - say the Europeans. “How to bomb us, the Europeans were the first, on a par with the United States,” say the Afghans, “but how to receive refugees - right away“ Don't!“These words have their own logic.

In the United States, they say that a large number of refugees need to be accepted, but even there the people are unhappy - a huge number of migrants from Latin America cross the border with Mexico every day, and now, in addition, Afghans will arrive in time.

Although the ruling Democratic Party stands for accepting migrants, it also needs to take into account popular discontent.

Therefore, the fate of the Afghan refugees has not yet been determined.

Apparently, a significant number of them will remain in Turkey, where there are already half a million inhabitants of Afghanistan.

Everyone would prefer Afghans to stay at home, and efforts therefore continue to delay the fall of the Kabul regime and bring about a smooth transition to the new order.

And Russia plays a significant role in this.

First of all, by strengthening the borders and armed forces of the Central Asian former union republics. President Putin handed over a lot of weapons to Tajikistan, and Russian assault planes were transferred to this republic. Joint exercises were held by the military of Russia, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Just in case: although there is no aggression from the south, so that such a thought does not appear in the minds of the Taliban field commanders.

Russia hopes to lead the parties in Afghanistan to a peace agreement and the creation of a coalition government. Do everything to ensure that the transfer of power goes relatively smoothly and that at this moment the frozen militants of the "Islamic State" could not strengthen their positions. You can talk with the Taliban and you can negotiate - this point of view has won today both in Russia and in the West. However, Kabulov, Russia's special envoy for Afghanistan, does not believe that the Taliban will be able to win a decisive victory and take the whole country into their own hands. Rather, he will become one of the leading forces in the new coalition in power. But if he wins, Russia is ready for such a scenario.

There is also a completely different concept. Activists believe that now the Overton window has emerged, when it is possible to redraw the borders in the region - after all, these borders were laid by the Russian and British Empires during the "Great Game" in the 19th century. Supporters of this concept call for "dismantling" Afghanistan into a Pashtun state in the south and a Tajik-Uzbek state in the north. The northern state would become a buffer between Central Asia and the Pashtuns or join Tajikistan. And the Pashtuns could erase the British-established border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and separate mountainous Pakistan from the plain. Plains will be able to return to Mother India, and a new Pashtunistan will arise in the mountains. However, in the Tajik north of Afghanistan, there is still no noticeable separatism, although it was strong before the American invasion,and to implement such plans, you need a daring mind and political will.

China does not stand aside from the shifts in Afghanistan. The Chinese Foreign Minister visited this country, met with the leaders of the Taliban, and was received with great honor. The Chinese are going to be friends with those who come to power in the country. Afghanistan is necessary for the creation of transport corridors, for the New Silk Road and for the security of China itself, so that jihadism does not come to Chinese East Turkestan, that is, Xinjiang. The West is trying to support the Uyghur irredent, and the Chinese need to negotiate with the Taliban so that they do not allow these Western plans to come true.

China is ready to invest in the reconstruction of the Afghan economy.

Although the Americans have been "reconstructing" Afghanistan for 20 years, the country has become even poorer than it was before this so-called reconstruction began.

Some experts fantasize that China will send its troops to stabilize Afghanistan, but neither Moscow nor Washington believes in such a turn.

The United States and Russia were positive about the Chinese interest;

apparently they do not believe that China will threaten their interests.

So August 2021, apparently, will be marked by the consolidation of positions.

* "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of February 14, 2003.

** "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

*** "Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.