On the 29th, 3865 people were confirmed to be infected, and Tokyo reached a record high for the third consecutive day.
What will happen to the infection situation in the future ...?
Experts have simulated that if the infection continues to spread at the current pace, the number of newly infected people will exceed 5,000 a day in the middle of next month, about two weeks later.
On the 29th in Tokyo, it was confirmed that 3865 people, the highest number ever, were infected with the new coronavirus.
Infections were confirmed in 2848 people on the 27th and 3177 people on the 28th, but the number was even higher on the 29th, a record high for the third consecutive day.
In addition, 3865 people have nearly doubled from Thursday a week ago, and the infection is spreading at an unprecedented rate.
Tokyo What is the future infection situation?
What will happen to the infection situation in Tokyo in the future?
If a group of Professor Hiroshi Nishiura of Kyoto University and others conducted a simulation and the infection continued to spread at the current pace, the number of newly infected people in Tokyo per day would exceed 5,000 by the middle of next month. rice field.
Estimated. <Number of newly infected people> Over 5,000 on the 11th of next month
This was presented by Professor Nishiura at an expert meeting of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare on the 28th.
It is estimated that the number of newly infected people in Tokyo per day will continue to increase at a pace of 1.4 times compared to the same day of the previous week with reference to the current level, but in Tokyo on the 11th of next month. The result was more than 5,000 people, 5027 people a day.
If the same pace continues after that, it will reach 16,43 people a day on the 26th of next month.
Estimated. <Number of inpatients> Over 6000 on the 9th of next month
We also made a trial calculation of future trends in inpatients in Tokyo based on the data up to the 21st of this month.
In the estimation, the effective reproduction number, which indicates how many people one person spreads to, is assumed to be "1.5" at this point in consideration of the infectivity of the mutant virus, etc., and the effective reproduction number will be increased in the future. If it decreased by only 10%, the number of inpatients in Tokyo would exceed 6000 as of the 9th of next month.
Furthermore, even if the number of effective reproductions in the future decreases by 30% assuming the same effect as the state of emergency issued in April, the number of inpatients will not be on a downward trend. On the 10th of April, the number of people exceeded 4,000.
In the group, if the current pace of infection spread continues, the number of hospitalizations for people in their 40s and 50s will increase, and general beds will become tighter than the beds for the severely ill, and it may be difficult to balance with medical care other than the new corona. I point out.
Professor Nishiura said, "The increase in the number of infected people is accelerating due to the influence of the Delta strain, and it is becoming more severe than ever. At present, the effect of the state of emergency is not visible and immediate measures are required. I want each and every one of us to cooperate, such as not meeting people who we don't usually meet even if we are vaccinated. "
"Toward the spread of explosive infections that we have never experienced" Tokyo Metropolitan Monitoring Conference
A monitoring meeting was held in Tokyo, and experts pointed out that "they are heading for an explosive spread of infection that they have never experienced." "The number of inpatients has doubled in about a month, and the medical care provision system. The tension has begun. ”He expressed a strong sense of crisis.
During the meeting, experts maintained the infection status and medical care provision system in Tokyo at the highest alert level of the four levels.
The 7-day average of new positives has quadrupled to about 1936 on the 28th in less than a month, experts say, "we are heading for an explosive outbreak that we have never experienced." Did.
And if the current growth rate continues, the 7-day average is
predicted to reach about 2962 people, 1.53 times the current level, on the 4th of next month, one week later.
Furthermore,
two weeks later, on the 11th of next month, it is predicted that the number will increase to about 4532, which is 2.34 times the current number, and he said,
"The medical care provision system is in crisis, so we must avoid it immediately." Was shown.
Expert "It's an unusual increase"
After the monitoring meeting, Takao Oomagari, director of the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, told reporters, "The average number of new positives for 7 days is 2000, which I have never seen or experienced. It's an unusual increase. "
On top of that, "When so many patients come out, there will be a huge number of people who will be treated at home. Among them, when medical care is not available, people who cannot be hospitalized immediately or who have not been diagnosed will suddenly suffer. In some cases, you may not be able to be hospitalized. To prevent this, you must immediately stop the growth rate from increasing. "
Governor Koike "The game is until the vaccine is distributed"
Governor Koike told reporters, "Vaccination is in the middle of the road and has not yet reached young people. I would like to share the sense of crisis that Delta strains are tough to fight unprotected."
He added, "I would like to ask you to continue to control the flow of people and thoroughly implement basic measures. The game is until the vaccine is distributed."
In addition, Governor Koike said, "The targets of countermeasures are gradually being narrowed down. People in their 50s should be vaccinated as soon as possible, and young people should follow the basics such as wearing masks thoroughly. At the same time, we will put in place a system that allows vaccinations to be given. We would like to take this as the last summer when we will continue to take measures against corona while accumulating various experiences and knowledge so far. " ..
On the other hand, reporters asked, "Isn't the ongoing Olympics hindering people from understanding that we must reduce the flow of people?" Governor Koike said, "The Olympics are the opposite. I think that the rate of stay homes is increasing very much. The TV audience rating is clearly showing. The flow of people is also decreasing, and I would like further cooperation. "
Analysis. The decrease in the number of people in the downtown area is smaller than the previous “declaration”.
At the monitoring meeting, the number of people has decreased in downtown Tokyo since the state of emergency was declared, but the rate of decrease is smaller than at the time of the previous and third declaration, and it is necessary to further reduce the number of people. It was reported.
Atsushi Nishida, director of the Center for Social Health Medicine, Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Research, analyzed the number of people who stayed in seven downtown areas in Tokyo for more than 15 minutes outside of their homes and workplaces as the "resident population."
According to this, in the week from the 18th of this month, which is the second week after the fourth emergency declaration was issued, it decreased by 13.7% in the daytime and 18.9% in the nighttime compared to the week before the declaration. did.
However, the rate of decrease is only about 40% of the previous and third declarations from April to last month, both during the day and at night.
In particular, the rate of decrease in the midnight hours from 10 pm to midnight, which Director Nishida said was "increasing the risk of infection," was 12.7% this time, compared to 48.5% at the time of the previous declaration. ..
Director Nishida pointed out, "Given the impact of the highly infectious Delta strain, it is necessary to further curb the flow of people, aiming for at least the same level as at the time of the previous declaration."
Analysis. Infection status
In addition, it is the analysis result about the infection situation in Tokyo and the medical care provision system shown at the monitoring meeting.
As of the 28th, the average number of new infections confirmed for 7 days was 1936.4, an increase of approximately 766 from 1170.0 as of the previous and 20th of this month.
Experts pointed out that "the infection situation has increased significantly and exceeded expectations. From about 503 people on the 30th of last month to nearly 2000 people in less than four weeks."
The rate of increase was about 153% in the previous week, up 4 points from the previous week.
Experts expressed a strong sense of crisis, saying, "Two weeks later, about 4532 people, which is predicted on the 11th of next month, will be in danger of the medical care provision system and must be avoided immediately."
The percentage of people who were confirmed to be infected in the week leading up to the 26th of this month
was 33.3% in their 20s, exceeding 30% for 4 consecutive weeks.
Next is
▽ 30s 21.3%
▽ 40s 16%
▽ 50s 11.5%
▽ teens 8.1%
▽ under 10s 4.7%
▽ 60s 3%
▽ 70s 1.3%
▽ 80s 0.6%
▽ 0.2% were in their 90s or older.
Since the middle of last month, people in their 50s or younger account for more than 90% of the total, and experts said, "The age composition of new positives has changed to young and middle-aged people. We need to educate them to have a stronger one. "
On the other hand, the number of elderly people aged 65 and over is 309 this week, which is 23 more than the previous week and is on the rise.
Analysis. People who know the route of infection
In humans the infection route is known
▽ infection from people to live was the highest at 55.8%
followed by
▽ workplace 15.4 Pasento
▽ infection is 9.3% in nursery schools and schools it to the facility, such as nursing homes and hospitals
▽ dinner is 6.1% was.
This week, institutional infections increased by 1.5 points from the previous week, and many reports of infections in nursery schools, kindergartens, universities, etc. were reported. By age group,
▽ under 10 years old decreased by 0.5 points from the previous week to 26.9%
▽ For teens, it decreased by 0.4 points to 19.3%.
In addition, food-related infections occur in all generations except those under the age of 10.
Experts said, "Infection caused by dinner can trigger infection at work or at home. Drinking parties such as summer vacation and watching the Olympic games require ingenuity such as using online. There are many opportunities to remove masks at gathering drinking parties and watching TV, and it is necessary to repeatedly raise awareness of the high risk of infection. "
Analysis. People who do not know the infection route
The 7-day average of those who do not know the infection route, which is considered to be an "index reflecting the spread of infection," was 1246 as of 28 days, an increase of about 525 from the previous week and an increase for 7 consecutive weeks.
In addition, the rate of increase was 157.4% as of the 28th, an increase of 7.7 points from the previous time, and increased for 8 consecutive weeks.
Experts said, "The infection is spreading at the same rate as just before the peak of the third wave. To prevent further spread, it is necessary to sufficiently reduce the flow of people and implement more thorough infection control measures than ever before. I called for caution.
The percentage of people who did not know the transmission route was about 63%, which was flat compared to the previous week.
Among people in their 20s and 60s, the percentage of people who do not know the infection route exceeds 60%, and the percentage of people in their 20s and 30s who are particularly active is as high as around 70%.
Experts point out that "the number of positive people who do not know when and where they were infected in the active epidemiological survey of the health center is increasing, and support measures are needed to reduce the heavy burden on the health center operations."
Analysis. Inpatients
The 7-day average test positive rate was 16.9% on the 28th, a significant increase from 10.2% on the 20th of this month in the previous week.
It has already exceeded the highest value at the time of the third wave of the new year and is rising further.
There were 2995 inpatients as of the 28th.
The number has increased by 607 since the 20th of this month.
It has also doubled in about a month since late last month.
"Medical institutions have been exhausted for about a year and a half, having been busy treating patients with the new corona and having a lot of talent for vaccination," said an expert.
Looking at inpatients by age group, it is said that those in their 60s or younger continue to rise, accounting for about 88% of the total.
By age group,
▽ 40s and 50s together
account for
about 42%
▽ 30s and under also account for about 36% of the total.
Experts pointed out that "the number of inpatients, mainly young and middle-aged, is increasing rapidly, and it is expected that the number of critically ill patients in this age group will increase later."
Analysis. Hospitalization adjustment
In addition, the number of requests from the public health center to the hospitalization coordination headquarters in Tokyo was 270 as of the 28th, and it has remained at a very high level due to the rapid increase in the number of new positives.
During the four consecutive holidays last week, hospitalization adjustments were extremely strict, and there were many cases in which hospitalization was carried over to the next day or later and forced to wait at home, experts said, "it is expected to be even more difficult in the future."
Analysis. Severely ill patients
In addition, the number of seriously ill patients as of the 28th, which was calculated based on the Tokyo standard, increased by 20 from the 20th of this month to 80, and experts pointed out that the number has "significantly increased".
By gender, there are 65 males and 15 females.
By age group, 30 people were in their 50s, followed by 17 people in their 40s, 15 people in their 60s, 14 people in their 70s, 3 people in their 30s, and 1 person in their 20s.
Experts said, "Approximately 83% of critically ill patients are in their 60s or younger. There are new serious cases this week in their 20s and 30s. People with obesity or smoking history are at risk of becoming severe even at a young age. Is expensive. "
In addition, there were 260 people on the 28th who were likely to need mechanical ventilation or ECMO treatment soon, an increase of 57 from the 20th of this month.
Analysis. Medical treatment status
When the medical treatment status of the people who were positive at 28 days when compared to the point in time this month 20 days
▽ people who are recuperating at home in addition to the increased 3691 people often 7348 people and more than doubled
and recuperation in hotels that were secured ▽ capital The number of people who are doing this increased by 60 to 1829.
In addition
, the number of people who are adjusting whether to be hospitalized at a medical institution or to receive medical treatment at a hotel or home has increased by 2501 to 4172, which is about 2.5 times higher.
All four items showing the status of medical treatment have increased, and the total number of "people in need of medical treatment" including inpatients has increased to 16,344. This is a 1.7-fold increase from 9485 as of the 20th of this month.
Experts pointed out that "it has increased significantly and is at a very high level."
Meanwhile, seven people infected with the new coronavirus died in the week leading up to the 26th of this month. Four of them were in their 70s or older.