• Each year, the Global Footprint Network calculates the day of the global overshoot, the date on which humanity has consumed the natural resources that the Earth can renew in a year, whether to meet our needs or absorb our CO2 emissions.

  • Last year, in connection with the Covid-19, this day of the overrun had moved back three weeks to fall on August 22.

    The revival, marked by an upward restart in CO2 emissions, brings us back to 2019 levels this year.

  • But WWF draws attention to a second factor explaining this new plunge: the degradation of tropical forests, which impacts their capacity to absorb our greenhouse gas emissions.

    And the EU has its share of responsibility.

*Back to square one.

World's “Overtaking Day” falls this year on Thursday, July 29.

Either the same day as in 2018 or 2019, the last two years pre-Covid-19.

This day of the exceedance, calculated each year by Global Footprint Network, an international research institute established in California, corresponds to the date on which humanity has consumed all the natural resources that the planet can renew in a year.

In other words, humanity will live the last five months of 2021 on credit, and we would need the equivalent of 1.7 planet Earth to meet our current needs.

"A constant methodology which makes it a relevant indicator"

To determine this date, the Global Footprint Network relies on three million statistical data from 200 countries, specifies WWF France. On the one hand, the think-tank looks at the ecological footprint of humanity. “That is to say the quantity of natural resources [agricultural land, fish reserves, forests…] which are necessary, on a global scale, to satisfy our food needs, our wood needs, to ensure the development of cities… And, above all, absorb all the greenhouse gas emissions that humanity produces each year, ”begins Arnaud Gauffier, WWF program director. On the other hand, Global Footprint Network is interested in the real biocapacity of the Earth, that is to say the quantity of renewable resources that it is able to regenerate in a year.

All these indicators are reduced to a common unit, expressed in global hectares.

By dividing the biocapacity of the Earth by the ecological footprint of humanity, then by multiplying the result by the number of days in a year, we come across this "overshoot day".

“The method is not perfect, which is normal for an indicator that aggregates so much data,” continues Arnaud Gauffier.

On the other hand, its strength is to apply the same methodology from one year to the next, which makes it a very interesting indicator for seeing trends.

"

An ephemeral decline in 2020

In short: are we on the right track? No, if we judge by this long tumble on the day of the overtaking, "a sign that we are always consuming all the resources that the planet can produce in a year", recalls Véronique Andrieux, director of the WWF. In 1971, this red line was crossed on December 22, a few days before the end of the year. It was November 4 in 1980, October 4 in 1995, August 7 in 2010 ... before stabilizing around late July-early August since 2017.

Only the year 2020 came out of this curve.

The day of the overrun had moved back three weeks, to fall on August 22.

A historic reversal.

And for good reason: "It is the only time that the day of the overtaking has moved back in the calendar", indicates Véronique Andrieux.

But difficult to congratulate.

"We suspected that this decline is only ephemeral, strongly linked to the drop in greenhouse gas emissions during the pandemic," continues the director of WWF.

It was therefore essential that the recovery plans, at the global level, be aligned with our climate objectives and give pride of place to renewable energies.

It was an opportunity to "reset" our economy so as not to return to pre-Covid levels.

"

CO2 emissions which are on the rise and forests are worrying

Magnifying glass ? On July 20, the International Energy Agency (IEA) launched the alert after calculating that only 2% of post-Covid recovery plans have so far been devoted to sustainable energy projects. The agency anticipates a new record of CO2 emissions in 2023. And these are already on the rise with the recovery, which largely explains this return to square one of the "day of the exceedance". The carbon footprint [the amount of greenhouse gases generated by human activities] alone represents 60% of humanity's total ecological footprint, we remind WWF. The Global footprint network indicates that at the end of 2020, the total greenhouse gas emissions reported were 5.8% lower than in 2019.Taking into account the most recent data from the Global Carbon project, the think-tank anticipates a 6.6% increase in the carbon footprint for 2021 compared to last year.

Beyond this unscrewing global ecological footprint, WWF draws attention to other indicators that are not looking good. On the side, this time, terrestrial biocapacities. More specifically forests, essential natural carbon sinks since they absorb part of the CO2 emissions emitted by human activities. But they do so less and less as the rate of deforestation accelerates. At the end of March, the annual Global Forest Watch report, based on satellite data, recorded, for 2020, the destruction of 4.2 million hectares of tropical primary forests, or 12% more than the previous year. "These losses were especially recorded in the Amazon, especially in its south-eastern part," explains Véronique Andrieux. If we take only Brazil, 1,1 million hectares were destroyed in 2020, a record since 2008. ”Arnaud Gauffier lists other fronts with high rates of deforestation last year. “The Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, Bolivia. "

The European Union has its share of responsibility

European forests are not at their best either, "even if the forest area has increased in recent centuries," continues the program director of WWF.

But we also have to talk about quality.

However, we have planted many forests which are natural in name only.

These are monocultures of trees, focused on economic exploitation, which do not have much interest in terms of carbon capture, since these forests are cut very quickly and are not well armed in the face of climate change. .

"At the end of June, in its last report, the High Council for the Climate (HCC) was thus concerned about the poor condition of French forests, which" have only captured three quarters of the quantity of CO2 that the National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) between 2015 and 2019. ”

Finally, the European Union is also helping to accelerate deforestation in the tropics through its imports.

These account for 16% of deforestation linked to world trade, which makes the EU the second global destroyer of tropical forests behind China and ahead of the United States, the WWF calculated in a report in mid-April.

“The crops most at risk of deforestation that we import into France are soybeans [imported mainly from Brazil for animal feed], palm oil [increasingly imported to be transformed into fuel *], cocoa, rubber, coffee… ”, explains Arnaud Gauffier.

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* 75% of the volume of palm oil consumed in France is used to make agrofuels (kerozene or diesel), specifies Arnaud Gauffier.

It's 50% in Europe.

The EU in search of better forests?

The European Commission is trying to act both to preserve its forests and to fight imported deforestation. On the first part, "a few days ago it released its strategy for the preservation and exploitation of its forests," recalls the WWF program director. It is rather ambitious and aims in particular to prevent the development of monocultures. But this text sparked an outcry from eleven ministers from different EU states in charge of forests, including Julien Denormandie [Minister of Agriculture] in France. "

Brussels will also present, in September, a draft legislation aimed at preventing the placing on the market of products resulting from deforestation.

This time around, WWF expects France to play a key role in bringing this subject to the fore.

“We are hosting the IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature) World Conservation Congress from September 3 to 11 in Marseille,” recalls Véronique Andrieux.

Above all, France will take over the presidency of the EU in the first half of 2022. "

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