At the beginning of the week, tankers of the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan advanced 200 km inland from the Tajik Liaur to the Harb-Maidon training ground bordering Afghanistan (according to the press service of the Central Military District).

Now the Russian military is separated from the Afghan Taliban by only about 80 km.

Here is what the Tajik edition of ASIA-Plus writes about the transfer of Russian military tanks: “During the march, the crews of the T-72 tanks worked out the issues of convoy security, overcoming the conditionally contaminated areas of the terrain, repelling the attack of sabotage and reconnaissance groups and air strikes of the“ enemy ”... Currently, servicemen are deploying command posts, carrying out engineering equipment for firing positions and camouflaging equipment. "

Doctors disinfect field camps, check the condition of the water and develop measures to prevent infections - in short, everything suggests that Russia and its CSTO partners are ready for a pessimistic turn of events.

Uzbekistan also sends combat aircraft, armored vehicles and special forces to the border with Afghanistan.

All together - Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan - from 5 to 10 August will conduct joint exercises at the Harb-Maidon training ground in case terrorists from Afghanistan enter Tajikistan.

The Russian Federation does not even think about military intervention in Afghanistan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov assured in an interview with Interfax on July 21, 2021.

And he urged not to confuse the Russian Federation with the USSR or the United States.

Nevertheless, on July 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Tajik President Emomali Rahmon discussed the situation in Afghanistan.

And the Russian Foreign Ministry: "Military exercises in Tajikistan are a signal to Central Asian partners against the backdrop of escalation in Afghanistan."

If Russia is not going to invade Afghanistan (and I am sure that it is not, and Lavrov is telling the truth: getting into Afghanistan a second time is much worse than stepping on the same rake the second time), then what are the heads of state discussing and why are they? getting ready?

And they are getting ready.

Mohammad Mohakik, a presidential adviser and representative of the Hazara community of Afghanistan, explains a little: “Along the northern border, militants from Central Asia, China, North Africa, the Middle East and other countries are gathering to the Islamic State *” (RIA Novosti).

Deputy Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Andrei Rudenko confirmed that the northern provinces of Afghanistan are turning into a hot spot and IS and Al-Qaeda militants are strengthening there **.

  • Servicemen during joint exercises of the 201st Russian military base and the forces of Tajikistan

  • RIA News

  • © Iskandar Aminov

And now attention, a question: why are they being drawn precisely to the northern border, which borders on Central Asia?

Where the CSTO military exercises are already in full swing and the Armed Forces of Tajikistan, Russia and Uzbekistan are pulled together?

Simply put, are all the terrorist rabble of the world being pulled up to where they are already awaited and ready to meet with him?

I have my own version, which I will voice below, but you can write your opinion in the comments.

On July 20, during an online discussion at the Valdai International Club, Director of the Second Asian Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation Zamir Kabulov said that India could not take part in the extended troika format, since it had no influence on the Taliban ***. and “the format of the expanded troika with the participation of Russia, the United States, China and Pakistan was convened solely to facilitate the launch of inter-Afghan negotiations leading to national reconciliation.

Only countries that have an unequivocal influence on both sides (of the conflict -

Yu

.

Yu.

)

Participate there

. "

Zamir Kabulov, the leading Russian negotiator on Afghanistan, considers it more pragmatic to negotiate with Pakistan, which, in fact, spawned and runs the Taliban.

“The Indians suspect the Pakistanis of trying to place Afghanistan at their service as a strategic rear.

The Pakistanis, on the other hand, suspect India of wanting to use Afghan territories to harm Pakistan's interests.

God is their judge.

As the saying goes, the plague is on both your houses, ”Kabulov summed up in a not diplomatic manner.

The day before yesterday, when I, somewhat puzzled by the statements of Mr. Kabulov, was preparing for this column, which was already titled as you see, I came across an news feed of the Iranian newspaper Tehran Times, in which the last two news reports were devoted to the inclusion of Iran and India into the expanded "Moscow troika" (China, the USA, Pakistan + Russia as the initiator), leading its own line of the Afghan negotiation process.

So so so.

So, after all, the partnership between Washington, New Delhi, Moscow and Tehran is not just my analytical speculation?

"On Wednesday, July 21, Russia supported the inclusion of India and Iran in the expanded troika talks on Afghanistan."

And also: "The representative of the Russian embassy in New Delhi Dmitry Solodov said that the inclusion of Tehran and New Delhi" will further enrich the potential of the negotiating group. "

Further, my optimism was shared by The Economic Times - India's # 1 business newspaper.

In her July 22 issue, she writes: “Russia has invited India for the first time to a troika plus meeting to discuss the role of the Taliban and the future of the landlocked country.

Besides, as it is known from reliable sources, Iran has been invited to the meeting ”.

This alleged event happened after the visit of Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to Moscow, Tehran and Central Asia.

“At the SCO meeting in Dushanbe last week, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar advised the Taliban to adhere to the Moscow format and the Doha and Istanbul processes.

Russia remains a key player in breaking the stalemate in Afghanistan against the backdrop of an influx of Taliban and is deeply interested in the stability of the country, since any spread of terror and extremism affects the Central Asian states with the possibility of spreading to the Russian Caucasus region, ”writes The Economic Times.

And not only Caucasian, we add.

Therefore, the serious role of Moscow and the inclusion of Russia in the global negotiation process with the involvement of influential countries in the region involved in Afghanistan cannot but rejoice.

The activity of the Indian Foreign Ministry is connected with the fact that Kabul has officially called on Russia, India and China to help in the fight against terrorism.

And now on July 21, the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Javad Zarif, is holding talks with the head of the Indian Foreign Ministry, the topic is a peaceful settlement in Afghanistan (Iranian news agency IRNA).

Prior to that, in early July, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar visited Tehran to convey a message from Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to the newly elected Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi.

India is an economic partner of Iran, it has invested and is completing the construction of the Iranian port of Chabahar, which, by the way, is a competitor to the Pakistani-Chinese Gwadar.

At a conference in Tashkent on July 16, Jaishankar noted the importance of the Iranian Chabahar as a key transport transit hub - it is Iran and its logistics that connect India with Afghanistan and further - with Central Asia (except for Afghanistan, India and Iran, Uzbekistan will actively use the port).

For a landlocked Afghanistan, this Iranian port is an important gateway to world markets.

Chabahar currently sends cargo to India, China, Thailand and Malaysia.

In my previous column, I wondered who would help Kabul contain the Taliban if the Americans cover the Afghan armed forces from the air until August 31, and that's it.

The picture looks clearer today.

And I invite you to take a look at the "non-obvious" constructs of the Taliban's military-political containment and a real peace settlement, which is being created in parallel with brilliant diplomatic rounds and tribunes.

It has slightly different participants - not the ones you most often hear about on the Afghan topic in the news.

First,

the US itself and the Afghan government

.

Washington has pledged $ 3.3 billion annually to aid Afghan security forces and the army (The Print).

Secondly,

Russia

: it will support the north of the country, together with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, with the forces of the CSTO and will probably help in the disposal of the most radical contingent, be it IS, Al-Qaeda or the most radical elements of the Taliban.

Since the scale of preparations for protecting the borders is so impressive, and the mobilization of reservists in Tajikistan is 20 thousand people, I have no other thoughts, except that the CSTO is preparing specifically for the military scenario of deterrence.

It seems that it is Tajikistan (under the supervision of the Russian Federation) that is preparing to take a serious blow and open the "northern Afghan front" for terrorists and radicals squeezed out of Afghanistan.

Yes, formally, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation and the representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Afghanistan are working with the Taliban and Pakistan, believing that the Taliban will abide by the agreements and will not cross the borders with the Central Asian states.

This is a correct and beautiful diplomatic line: we talk with those who are capable of dialogue.

But we remember that at the same time, our Security Council is working with the Afghan government and adviser to the Afghan president, Mohib, who are actively bombing the north and mobilizing the local population for "local resistance."

This is an option for those, obviously, who are not inclined towards a peaceful dialogue, but towards a "world caliphate."

They are expected at the border.

Third,

India

: The Indian Armed Forces is 1.4 million active military personnel, the second largest army in the world and the third largest military budget.

A very strong army with active combat experience in the jungle, in the Kashmir highlands and plains.

Afghanistan-India - 2011 Defense and Strategic Cooperation Plan.

At the meeting in Tashkent, which I wrote about in the previous column, the Indian Foreign Minister met not only with our Sergei Lavrov, but also with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

After that, it became known that the commander-in-chief of the Afghan army, General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai, will visit India from July 27 to 30, 2021.

During a three-day visit, the head of the Afghan army will meet with his counterpart, General M.M.

Narvan and National Security Advisor Ajit Doval.

  • National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister of India Ajit Doval

  • Reuters

  • © Maxim Shipenkov

It is noteworthy that Ahmedzai is the new commander-in-chief, he was appointed by the president a month ago in response to the strengthening of the Taliban and the new international situation around Afghanistan.

His visit will include an assessment of the security situation, talks on military cooperation and training of Afghan regular forces by India (currently about 300 Afghan cadets are training in India and Ahmedzai is expected to travel to Pune, where the National Defense Academy is located, to meet with Afghan cadets).

India also hosts and treats Afghan soldiers injured in fighting the Taliban (Dopolitics.in)

And then (well, wow!) It was on these days, from 27 to 28 July, that US Secretary of State Tony Blinken was arriving in India for a two-day visit.

His meeting with the head of the Afghan army has not been announced, but you and I understand that this is one of the goals of the visit of the US Secretary of State.

How could it be otherwise against the backdrop of the withdrawal of American troops?

In New Delhi, the format of support for the regular army, security services and the legal government by the Americans will most likely be discussed.

If they do not want the fall of Kabul and the capture of the entire country by the Taliban.

(In addition, Blinken is coming to discuss preparations for the Narendra Modi and Joseph Biden summit at the end of the year and the political-military cooperation between New Delhi and Washington on the Quad.)

Fourthly,

Iran

: through its media ("Mehr", "Jomhuri Eslami") reports that a new brigade of "Shiite militia" "Haashd al-Shiei", created by Iran in the image and likeness of the famous Iraqi "Hashd al-Shaabi".

Behind the Afghan clone of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces is the current head of the IRGC's Quds Force, Ismail Kaani.

As a deputy of Suleimani, he just specialized in Afghanistan and Pakistan, so Afghanistan with Iranian-speaking tribes, Tajiks, Shiite groups, the same Hazaras is his "kingdom".

Mehr writes that the core of the Afghan proxy will be the Fatimiyun brigade, which Suleimani and Kaani collected from Afghan Hazaras and trained in real combat conditions in Syria, where they are on the ground, and Russia from the air helped the Alawite Bashar al-Assad to retain power.

  • Shiite brigade "Fatimiyun"

  • © Wikimedia Commons

Iranian proxies, if you look at Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and even Yemen, can be effective.

After all, we remember that the very same "Hashd al-Shaabi" were created by the Iranians in Iraq in 2014 under Democratic President Barack Obama.

In one day, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, in his modest house in Iraqi Al-Najaf, in cooperation with Suleimani, "mobilized" about 200 thousand Shiites to fight IS in Iraq and Syria in 2014.

The military registration and enlistment offices are resting!

In Afghanistan, the same Hazaras are the third largest ethnic group living mainly in the center of the country.

And only the general staff of the IRGC knows how many "pro-Iranian" Tajiks, lured Pashtuns and others are there.

Therefore, the "Iranian" reserve in Afghanistan may well be involved in putting things in order.

In addition, Russia, Iran, India, Afghanistan and Central Asia are part of the North-South corridor (an alternative to China's One Belt One Road) - 7200 km of transport and transit routes.

But this, however, is already a somewhat different story.

So, despite all the paradox, such an unusual triangle in the Afghan settlement, albeit not publicly advertised as a "troika" with Pakistan, may actually work.

* "Islamic State" (IS, ISIS) - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014.

** "Al-Qaeda" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.

*** "Taliban" - the organization was recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated 02.14.2003.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.