On July 15, Turkey commemorated the fifth anniversary of the failed coup attempt in 2016, the day it later turned into the "Day of Democracy and National Unity", and declared it a national day and an official holiday;
An expression of its importance and exceptionality.
different coup
The importance of the event stems from its difference from previous coups on the one hand, and the important changes it contributed internally and externally on the other hand.
The 2016 coup differs from its four predecessors in terms of the party that carried it out, which is the parallel entity or the Gülen group, not the leadership of the military establishment or the Kemalist movement in it, and its bloodiness on the night of its implementation;
More than 250 Turkish citizens died that night, and certainly his failure compared to the success of his predecessors, as well as large numbers of citizens to participate directly in refuting him along with the security and military institutions that confronted the putschists.
The failure of the coup also contributed - with other factors - to important changes in Turkey, such as the transition to the presidential system, the dependence of its foreign policy on hard power more, and its direct involvement in regional crises, in addition to the most important variable, which is the difficulty of the possibility of another coup - in the near future at least. Estimate- and narrow the margins in front of him.
Among the things that contributed to this, which were to a very large extent the product of the failed coup and the lessons learned from it;
Turkish foreign policy is shifting from almost exclusively reliance on soft power to increasingly embracing hard power.
This is clearly evident in the military operations outside the borders in Syria (Operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Spring of Peace, Spring Shield), Iraq (Operations "Claw"), and Libya in support of the Government of National Accord.
The last coups
Before 2016, Turkey experienced 4 direct coups, in addition to several times in which the army intervened in the country's political life.
These coups were ostensibly "constitutional";
The constitution granted the military institution powers and tasks related to "protecting the principles of the republic", especially secularism, which is the pretext used by those coups and facilitated its mission.
On the contrary, it can be said that the failed attempt in 2016 narrowed - to a very large extent - the possibility of another coup in the foreseeable future, for many reasons; In the first place, the first July 15 coup, in which the masses of the people participated - even partially - in bringing down hundreds of martyrs for this, in addition to the participation of the intelligence services, the police and some groups of the army, which means that the cost - especially humanity - of any upcoming coup It will be very high, which will increase the possibility of its failure and thus make you think a thousand times before doing it.
On the other hand, the many reforms carried out by the Justice and Development Party - since it took power - have limited the military establishment's domination of political life in the country and subjected it to the decision of the elected leadership, including amending its powers in the constitution and limiting them to facing external threats, and amending the structure and powers of the Security Council The nationalist (the army’s tool in politics), which became an advisory body with non-binding decisions, as well as the structure of the Supreme Military Shura Council, which became a civilian majority.
In addition to this, the changes that have occurred in the prevailing culture within the military institution, so that it has become more receptive to the people’s religion and culture, including the opening of mosques and the establishment of prayers in the military barracks, after that was previously a reason for expulsion from the army.
As well as the absence of any justification or pretext for the coup in recent years, such as political blockage, economic collapse or internal strife.
But all this does not mean that the absence of a coup in the future is 100% guaranteed. Politics does not know stability, but rather it is in constant change, and there are always loopholes that may be implemented from it.
The government says that the fight against the Gülen organization has not reached its desired goal yet, and the United States and some Western countries continue to bet on it.
The army’s guardianship doctrine has not disappeared and is not expected to do so in less than 20 years, and those who were dismissed from the military establishment from those affiliated with Gülen left their places to officers from other currents, especially the Kemalists, who were accused of carrying out all the previous coups.
important variables
In 2015, the Justice and Development called for the transition to a presidential system, but the voter did not give him the necessary parliamentary majority for that. However, the failed coup and the subsequent developments prompted an alliance between the ruling party and the Nationalist Movement Party, and with this alliance the decision was passed in Parliament and approved in a popular referendum in 2017, before it took effect with the elections of 2018. Many consider the transition to the presidential system the biggest change in the Turkish Republic since It was established in 1923, and as a prelude to larger changes under the title of "The Second Republic", as well as a key factor in the other changes that occurred after the failed coup, which will be mentioned later.
One of the important variables is the transformation of Turkish foreign policy into a more active and proactive policy, and even involvement in a large number of regional and international crises and issues.
After the Korean War and then the intervention in Cyprus in 1974 were two examples that are mentioned as an exception to Ankara’s regression against itself, the latter is now present in direct and indirect forms in several countries and conflicts, foremost of which are Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Southern Caucasus and the Eastern Mediterranean.
One of the things that contributed to this - which was very much the product of the failed coup and the lessons learned from it - was the shift in Turkish foreign policy from relying almost exclusively on soft power to the increasing adoption of hard power.
This is clearly evident in the military operations outside the borders in Syria (Operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch, Spring of Peace, Spring Shield), Iraq (Operations "Claw"), and Libya in support of the Government of National Accord.
Also mentioned here are military bases outside the borders in Iraq, Somalia and Qatar, and possible future ones in Azerbaijan and Libya.
In addition to the rapid growth of the Turkish military industries sector in the last few years, which has become the backbone of Turkish weapons used in foreign operations, and moved Turkey to the ranks of arms-exporting countries, especially drones.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the failed coup attempt in 2016 is a milestone in Turkey's modern history and an important turning point that contributed to pushing for important changes in the country and its internal and external policies, regardless of how some of them are evaluated negatively or positively.
But the biggest gain from the failed coup is that it has greatly reduced the possibilities of future coups, which can protect political life and the democratic experience in it, and open the doors of reform and change for the better, if there is the will to do so.
All of this increases the importance of addressing crises that may be taken as an excuse by some party in the future to interfere in political life away from the election box and the people's decision. It is imperative in this context to consolidate the culture that rejects coups between the political elites and the people alike, and this is perhaps one of the most important reasons why the anniversary of the failed coup continues to be commemorated annually with the same momentum. As well as strengthening the internal unity and reducing the level of polarization in the country, enhancing freedoms and returning to the path of reforms, addressing existing crises (particularly economic) and preventing any new crises.