Strengthen population monitoring to implement comprehensive three-child and supporting measures

  The implementation of the comprehensive three-child policy and supporting measures requires strengthening population monitoring and forecasting, scientific research and judgment on population trends, scientific demonstration and full-process monitoring of the implementation of supporting fertility policies, and monitoring of the economic, social, and social issues that affect population changes and the implementation of supporting fertility policies. The resources, environment and other factors are closely monitored and forecasted, so as to implement the comprehensive three-child policy and supporting measures to achieve results.

The population change in the three-child era is unprecedented, and it is more necessary to improve the population monitoring and forecasting system

  Population monitoring and forecasting is the cornerstone of scientific decision-making.

Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the Party Central Committee and the State Council have made scientific predictions of my country's population development based on scientific population monitoring data and population mathematical models, and adjusted the birth policy in a timely manner.

In 2013 and 2015, major decisions were made to implement "two children alone" and "two children comprehensively".

The population change sampling data, birth population monitoring data and population prediction models of the National Health Commission and the National Bureau of Statistics have played an important role in decision-making support for the adjustment of the fertility policy.

In 2017, 2018, and 2019, the National Health Commission has successively implemented a series of population monitoring surveys across the country, including fertility status surveys, fertility willingness surveys, and childcare service status surveys, and timely grasped population changes and family policy needs. It provides important data support for the implementation of the comprehensive three-child policy.

In the seventh national census conducted in 2020, the ID number was entered for the first time, and data was collected in an electronic manner. The census object networked and self-filled App channel was added to better satisfy people's flexibility and privacy in the census work. It also makes full use of the administrative record data of the public security department and the mobile phone signaling big data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to verify and check for missing vacancies. It is the census with the lowest underreporting rate and the highest quality in the history of China's census.

The seven-person population data provides critical data support for the Party Central Committee's implementation of the comprehensive three-child policy.

  During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, a comprehensive three-child policy and supporting measures must be implemented, especially population monitoring and forecast data.

Therefore, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is important to improve the population monitoring and forecasting system. On the basis of population censuses and sample surveys, it is necessary to improve the population dynamics monitoring and forecasting system, and scientifically monitor and evaluate the total population, women of childbearing age, Establish a normalized population monitoring and forecasting mechanism for population changes such as the birth population, working population, the elderly population, and the floating population, regularly publish national population forecast reports, and promote population forecasts by region, education level, and employment status by industry Forecast work.

Comprehensive family policy needs in the three-child era are complex and diverse, and a complete family policy evaluation and monitoring mechanism is particularly needed

  In the new era when family policy needs are becoming more complex and diverse, the arrival of the comprehensive three-child policy seems to be a simple change in quantity, but it actually adds more difficulty to the comprehensive three-child policy and supporting measures.

Although from a scientific point of view, it is a great challenge to accurately assess the net effect of a family policy on fertility and birth population, because family policy is often a social experiment lacking a control group, and it is necessary to simulate and simulate the effect of a counterfactual model. There are many inherent shortcomings in the demographic changes in the implementation of this family policy scenario.

However, with the accelerated development of human digitization and intelligence and the rapid development of causal reasoning models, various modelling of family policies have also been developed rapidly, and many research institutions have begun to pay attention to household macro-policy databases and household micro-levels. The construction of the tracking survey database not only evaluates and monitors the implementation progress and effects of family policies at the macro level in a timely manner, but also evaluates and monitors the implementation effects of family policies through continuous tracking surveys of micro-family of a certain scale, and discovers families in time Practical problems with policies.

  Therefore, drawing on international experience, combining with the specific situation of China’s further optimization of fertility policies, and finding out the specific needs of families for policy supporting measures, it is necessary to establish and improve the evaluation and monitoring system of fertility supporting policies, and to provide for marriage, family, childbirth, and childcare. Carry out regular monitoring and evaluation of family policies related to childbirth, holidays, maternity insurance, tax reductions and exemptions, establish a macro-policy database for human marriage and family maternity and a micro-database for family tracking surveys, monitor the effect of policy implementation in a timely manner, and find outstanding problems in the implementation of family policies, thereby Further optimize the supporting policies for childbirth.

The overall three-child era population decision-making environment is undergoing major changes, especially the need to innovate the population management decision-making paradigm

  The population issue has always been a fundamental, long-term, and strategic issue closely related to politics, economy, society, culture, resources, and the environment.

The key to population issues is often hidden in all aspects of the economy and society, especially closely related to housing, education, and technology.

High housing prices and high education costs have affected people's willingness to have children.

Digital technologies such as the Internet and artificial intelligence have fundamentally changed the way of life of human beings, and even shifted human pursuit and experience of pleasure and fun, which in turn changed the concept of marriage and childbirth, lowered the level of marriage and childbearing, and became invisible and intangible. Of invisible contraceptives.

The most important thing is that digital technologies such as the Internet, big data, and artificial intelligence have not only changed human life styles, but also enriched big population data, including Internet-based population behavior big data, mobile phone signaling-based travel big data, and Internet of Things. Big data on economic and social resources of the world, big data on medical care based on the medical network, etc.

Increasingly rich population big data and increasingly complex model algorithms are changing the theoretical paradigm and technical means of population decision-making and the ecological environment, which in turn puts forward higher requirements for the comprehensive population decision support system.

  During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, on the one hand, it is necessary to strengthen interdisciplinary and cross-disciplinary strategic research in the field of population, innovate population management decision-making and research paradigms, firmly grasp the cutting-edge technology and methods of world population monitoring and forecasting, and closely integrate China's digital and intelligent development trends. , Research and develop population prediction technologies and models based on digital technologies such as the Internet, big data, and artificial intelligence, integrate economic, social, cultural, resource, and environmental factors that affect population changes, and study the effects of population changes on the economy, society, resources, environment, etc. The impact of factors; on the other hand, it is necessary to study the impact of economic, social, resource, environmental and other factors on population development, and improve the overall digital and intelligent level of population development mathematical models and comprehensive decision support systems, and fully realize population, economy, The intelligent interconnection of social, resource, environmental and other elements will provide scientific, intelligent, timely and convenient decision-making support for further optimizing fertility policies and achieving long-term balanced population development.

(Author: Huang Kuangshi, associate researcher of China Population and Development Research Center)