In Armenia, a high-risk election for Nikol Pachinian
Audio 02:28
Nikol Pachinian, in Yerevan, March 3, 2021. AP - Tigran Mehrabyan
By: Bruno Daroux Follow
6 mins
The early legislative elections are due to take place this Sunday in Armenia, a few months after the crushing defeat of the government of Nikol Pachinian during the conflict with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.
With this early poll, does Nikol Pachinian have a chance to stay in power?
Publicity
The answer is yes, but it promises to be tight.
Nikol Pachinian is clearly playing his political future with these early parliamentary elections that he had to resolve to call after his army's beating against that of Azerbaijan during the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh last fall.
A stinging defeat which caused Armenia to lose control of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia's intervention to put in place a ceasefire avoided the worst - the outright loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, this region officially in Azerbaijan but secessionist, populated mostly by Armenians, and controlled for thirty years by Yerevan.
Following this military rout, which left more than 3,500 dead in the ranks of the Armenian army, and caused the displacement of tens of thousands of civilians, the Prime Minister had to face popular anger and the forces of the opposition that demanded his departure.
He stood firm, explaining that only a ballot could decide whether or not the Armenians still wanted him.
His strategy was therefore to settle the quarrel, not in the street, but at the ballot box.
A criticized style and strained relations with the army
Pachinian, who came to power in 2018 denouncing the archaism and corruption of tired elites very close to Russia, had succeeded in smoothing out the political situation and even recorded some good economic results. But his style - too direct and, for some, too populist - will not have helped him in the conduct of the conflict with Baku. Not to mention strained relations with the army staff, which did not help matters.
It will be understood: for Nikol Pachinian, Sunday's poll is crucial. He remains the favorite according to the latest polls with his Civil Contract block. In front of him, no less than three former presidents - but the only one who represents a danger is called Robert Kotcharian, president of Armenia from 1998 to 2008. His formation has approached Civil Contract, to the point that the latest polls give them neck and neck. Between the two men, the campaign was tough. But the image of Nikol Pachinian remains more positive with voters: 40 to 45% good opinions for him, against barely 20% for his challenger.
But, in legislative, it will above all be necessary to monitor the result and possibly the alliances of the various blocs.
This is where the main danger lies for the Prime Minister: if all his opponents unite against him in the event of a second round.
Answer, or start of answer, this Sunday.
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Armenia
Nikol Pachinian
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