Recommendations on the risk of spreading new coronavirus infection associated with the 2020 Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games
June 18, 2021
Hideaki Anan Akifumi Imamura Keihiro Ota Takao Omagari Takeshi Kosaka Nobuhiko Oshiya Hitoshi Oshiya Shigeru Omi Kama Takutoshi Kawaoka Yoshihiro Kawana Akihiko Kawana Ayumi Kiyoko Yoshihiro Takayama Kazuhiro Tateda Kiyoshu Taniguchi Kazunori Asano Yoko Nakazawa Kazutoshi Nakajima Hiroshi Nishiura Hideki Hasegawa Yuki Furuse Hideo Maeda Masaki Yoshida Takashi Wakita Koji Wada (in alphabetical order)
Gist
1. After June 20, when the state of emergency is lifted in many areas, the effects of the vaccine can be expected to suppress the severely ill, including during the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games (hereinafter referred to as the main competition). Until then, it is necessary to prevent the spread of infection and medical tightness. Even if vaccination goes well, there may be a re-increase in infected and severely ill from July to August. It is also necessary to assume the effects of mutant strains.
2. The scale and social attention of this tournament are different from those of ordinary sporting events, and the period of the tournament overlaps with summer vacation and Obon festival. There is a risk of spread of infection and tight medical care due to increased opportunities.
3. Depending on the method of accommodating the spectators, there is a risk that people all over the country watching the game on TV will get a contradictory message that "infection measures may be relaxed". We would like the organizers of the tournament to take this into consideration when deciding the number of spectators.
4. It is desirable to hold an unattended event because it has the lowest risk of spreading infection in the venue. If you are accommodating an audience, please consider the following three points.
(
B)
Adopting stricter standards for the number of spectators than the current standards for holding large-scale events
(b) Audiences should be limited to those at the venue in order to curb the flow and contact opportunities of people across prefectures. In addition, limit to people who can take measures against infection including movement routes
(c) When a sign of infection spread or medical tightness is detected, do not miss the time so that the situation does not become serious To do
5. The tournament organizer cooperates with government agencies to cancel support events where an unspecified number of people gather, request refraining from supporting a large number of people at restaurants, etc., and at the same time, make full use of various latest technologies for "sports under a pandemic". I would like Japan to propose a style of watching and cheering.
6. The government is prepared to take necessary measures (such as issuing a state of emergency) without hesitation, even if it is being held, when a sign of spread of infection or tight medical care is detected. Please do not miss the timing.
7. The tournament organizers and the government should promptly inform the public of their thoughts on how to recognize the risks mentioned above, how to mitigate them, and under what circumstances strong measures should be taken. I would like you to be convinced.
8. The organizer of the Games is requested to convey the content of this opinion to the IOC (International Olympic Committee).
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1.First of all
・ We are volunteers of experts who have advised the government and prefectures on measures against the new coronavirus infection (hereinafter referred to as the new corona) since the beginning of 2020.
・ We are not in a position to judge or decide whether or not the 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games (hereinafter referred to as the main competition) will be held and how it should be.
・ However, in addition to the risks of infection spread and medical tightness that already exist in Japan, if this tournament is held, there is a possibility that domestic medical care will be further burdened.
For this reason, we believe that it is our duty to evaluate the risks related to this competition and to state our thoughts on minimizing those risks, and we have compiled the recommendations.
・ The purpose of this proposal is twofold.
First, after June 20, when the state of emergency is lifted in many areas, the spread of infection and the spread of infection will continue until it is expected that the number of severely ill patients will be suppressed due to the effects of vaccines, including during the Games. It is to make recommendations to avoid medical strains.
Then, evaluate the direct and indirect risks so that the organizers and related parties can make appropriate decisions regarding this event.
2 World infection status
・ Looking at the infection status of the new corona in the world, it is still reported that about 400,000 people are infected and about 10,000 people die per day.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the number of infected people is increasing rapidly, especially in countries in Asia where the number of infected people has been low.
In many countries in Africa and South America in the Southern Hemisphere, the number of infected people is increasing.
・ In the northern hemisphere, the number of infected people is decreasing in developed countries such as Europe and North America.
It is true that the promotion of vaccination contributed to the reduction of the number of infected people, but it is thought that various factors such as lockdown measures and climate taken in each country had an effect, so vaccination It should be noted that is not all.
Even in the United Kingdom, where vaccination is actually progressing to a considerable extent, the number of infected people has been confirmed to increase, so it is necessary to pay attention to future trends.
Even in the United States, the number of infected people tends to increase despite the high vaccination rates in some areas.
-Furthermore, there are many countries in Africa and Oceania that have not yet undergone a major epidemic of the new coronavirus and are hardly affected by the mutant virus.
It should be noted that many of these countries have scarce medical resources.
3 Domestic infection status
-Currently, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus per population in Japan is relatively small worldwide, but it has become difficult to balance with the provision of ordinary medical care, so June 2021 Until the 20th, emergency declarations were issued in 10 prefectures.
In one of these prefectures, the state of emergency was extended until July 11, and in seven prefectures, priority measures such as prevention of spread were taken.
・ Measures are still underway to reduce the number of newly infected people by reducing the number of people and contact opportunities by means such as requesting people to refrain from going out, restricting the provision of alcoholic beverages at restaurants, and requesting shorter business hours. is.
・ In Tokyo, which is the main venue for this tournament, the number of newly infected people is starting to stop declining, and there is a strong concern that the number of infected people will rise again as the number of people increases.
4 Risks related to infection spread and medical tightness after late June
(1) Risks that exist regardless of the holding of the tournament
・ When the number of newly infected people decreases and the state of emergency is lifted, the number of people in downtown areas will increase, and the number of newly infected people will be about 2. I have had the experience of starting to increase again in ~ 3 weeks.
・ The current infection situation may seem relatively calm, but despite the fact that an emergency declaration was being issued, the number of people in the metropolitan area is already increasing, so It is highly probable that the infection will spread again through July.
・ Especially in the summer, people travel long distances due to travel and homecoming, and the chances of contact with people who are not normally with them increase, and the infection spreads rapidly even in areas where the infection has been calm. The chances are high.
・ Furthermore, we have also experienced that when the infection spreads in the metropolitan area, the infection spreads nationwide over time.
Therefore, with the holding of the Olympic Games in late July, there is a risk that the infection will spread nationwide as people move across prefectural borders and increase the flow of people and contact opportunities.
By the time the Paralympic Games are held in late August, there is a risk that the number of critically ill patients will increase and that the medical care provision system will be burdened.
-As for the trend of mutant viruses, alpha strains are currently the mainstream in Japan, but delta strains are also increasing little by little.
It has been suggested that this delta strain is more infectious than the alpha strain.
Therefore, the effects of the mutant virus may increase the speed of spread of the infection.
・ Currently, vaccination is being promoted mainly by the elderly with the efforts of medical staff and local government officials. Since it is a vaccine that is considered to be effective in preventing the onset and aggravation, it is expected that the number of newly infected and severely ill elderly people will decrease by further promoting vaccination by the end of July. However, there is a certain risk of aggravation in the elderly who have not been vaccinated and the middle-aged who have not been vaccinated, and the rapid spread of infection may increase the number of severely ill people and impose medical pressure. If this happens, it could have a significant impact on the vaccination system.
(2) Risk of new spread of infection that may
occur with the holding of the Games ・ Risk of spread of infection that may occur with the holding of the Games includes a. Infection risk that the organizer of the Games responsibly controls and b. It can be divided into infection risk controlled by the organizer of the event, the government, and the local government of the venue.
・ Regarding a, discussions and preparations have been made by the organizers of the tournament. It is expected that the risk of infection will be controlled by the efforts centered on the organizer of the event.
・ However, b cannot be controlled unless the tournament organizer, the government, and the administrative organs of the venue work together. Furthermore, the risk of inducing the spread of infection and medical tightness of b is considered to be extremely high compared to a, but it can be said that there has been little discussion about b. Therefore, this document emphasizes the importance of b.
Infection risk controlled responsibly by the competition organizer
1 The
risk
of clustering
among athletes and the spread of infection among athletes is expected to be controlled by the efforts of the organizer. However, it should be noted that some people have not been vaccinated and the technical limitations of the test.
2 Outflow of infection from bubble to outside bubble
・ For tournament officials (sponsors, journalists, etc.) other than athletes, the risk of spreading the infection outside the bubble is considered to be relatively high compared to athletes. Measures are needed to ensure compliance with the playbook.
3 Spreading the infection in the venue
・ The risk of spreading the infection can be minimized by making the audience unattended.
・ When spectators are included, the upper limit will be significantly limited, and if the playbook playbook is strictly observed, infection in the venue can be controlled.
・ However, as the number of spectators increases, the number of required staff (volunteers, guards, etc.) also increases, making it difficult to thoroughly implement infection control measures and increasing the risk of infection spread.
・ Even with the same number of spectators, the risk of spreading the infection increases depending on the epidemic situation in the area.
4 Spread of infection to other countries triggered by the
tournament ・ If infection control within the bubble is not thoroughly implemented during the tournament, the infection will spread as athletes and tournament officials return to countries around the world after the tournament. There is also a risk of doing so.
b. Risks controlled by the organizer of the event, the government, and the local government of the venue
1
Risk
of increased people flow and contact opportunities due to the event held
・ This event is a normal sport in terms of its scale and social attention. It is different from the event.
・ According to the materials prepared by the Games Organizing Committee, the number of tickets sold per day at the venues of the three prefectures in Tokyo at the peak of the Games is about 430,000. On the other hand, for example, looking at the number of spectators mobilized per day in one of the three prefectures, professional baseball has about 47,000 and J League has about 7,000. This tournament is clearly large in scale, as competitions of various events are concentrated in a short period of time, mainly in Tokyo. It is expected that movements across prefectures for watching games will occur in a concentrated manner, and opportunities for people flow, contact, and eating and drinking will increase dramatically.
・ In the first place, from the experience so far, it is known that the increase in the flow of people and contact opportunities triggered by annual events and vacations will contribute to the spread of infection, but for many citizens, this tournament is once in a lifetime. It is an extraordinary event that is also a memorial and has a high degree of social attention. Therefore, if there are more opportunities to eat and drink at restaurants, at home, etc. with people who are not always with you or who you haven't met in a long time, there will be a high risk of spreading the infection.
・ Public viewing and support events are also expected to lead to increased opportunities for people, contact, and eating and drinking. There is also a risk that people who are uplifted by watching the game will take actions that are less alert to infection control, such as high fives among an unspecified number of groups on the street.
2 Risk of becoming a “contradictory message” for infection control in cooperation with citizens
・ If a game is held late at night in the presence of spectators, for citizens who are requested to shorten business hours or refrain from going out at night, etc. It will be a "contradictory message".
・ We are cooperating with infection control when images that invite an increase in people flow and contact opportunities, such as spectators with insufficient infection control, people who get excited while eating and drinking at cheering events and streets, etc., are shown on TV etc. It is a "contradictory message" for the citizens.
・ The arrival of such "contradictory messages" includes the risk of naturally diminishing people's alertness, the risk of making it difficult to obtain cooperation in infection control, and the risk of deepening the division of people. I think it's big.
5 Options to reduce the risk of spreading the infection
Japan's new corona countermeasures rely heavily on the voluntary cooperation of citizens.
Citizens' awareness has played an important role in the success or failure of infection control.
I believe that the government is required to explain future measures, including during the Games, and their necessity so that people can be convinced and sympathize with them.
And it is important that these explanations and requests for cooperation from people are presented as soon as possible.
This will be a very important foundation for infection control, which will continue for the time being after the Games.
(1) Recommendations to the government: Measures to reduce the risk of spread of infection that should be started from the end of June
・ Since June 20, when the state of emergency is lifted in many areas, the number of severely ill people due to the effects of the vaccine, including during the Games It is necessary to avoid serious medical strains due to the spread of infection by the time it can be expected to suppress the disease.
Therefore, I would like you to consider the following four points.
1 Continuation of infection control and financial support
・ Please continue to take strong infection control after the end of June.
At the same time, for the past year or more, voluntarily cooperate with infection control measures to promptly implement measures to help those who have been or are at risk of financial difficulties.
2 Preparations for the
event ・ If the state of emergency is lifted, there is a risk that the number of infected people will increase again.
Continue to monitor and evaluate the signs of rapid spread, and if there are signs of spread, promptly decide to strengthen your countermeasures and be prepared to implement them.
3 Response just before the event
・ If medical care is likely to be tight just before the event and it becomes necessary to declare a state of emergency, it will be extremely difficult to hold the event on schedule. I will. To prevent such a situation, if you detect a sign of the spread of infection, do not hesitate to take strong measures without missing the time and waiting for the imminent situation.
4 Responses during the period
・ If there is an increased possibility that medical care will be tight during the tournament, do not hesitate to take strong measures without missing a time and without waiting for the imminent situation. Please.
(2) Recommendations for the Games Organizer: Risk mitigation measures at the
Games 1 About reducing the scale of the Games
・ The Games Organizing Committee is already working to limit the number of members of the press and sponsors. .. It is important to continue to scale as much as possible.
2 Regarding the accommodation policy for spectators
・ From the results of risk analysis, it is natural that holding without spectators is desirable because it has the lowest risk of spreading infection.
・ However, if you want to include an audience, we would like you to consider the following points.
(B) This tournament is different from ordinary sporting events in terms of scale and attention. Therefore, when limiting the number of spectators, the current standards for holding large-scale events should not be applied, but should be based on stricter standards
(b) in order to curb the flow of people across prefectures. The audience is limited to the people at the venue. In addition, the audience should be limited to those who can take measures against infection, including the route of travel (for example, inviting elementary school students with the consent of the local government or parents is one option).
(C) When a sign of spread of infection or medical tightness is detected, keep the timely and unattended so that the situation does not become serious.
3 Statement of measures in response to the deterioration of the domestic infection situation
・ Domestic Please announce to the public as soon as possible about the measures that the tournament organizer should take promptly as the infection situation worsens.
4 Watching sports under a pandemic and advocating a support style
・ In cooperation with local government agencies, cancel support events where an unspecified number of people gather, including public viewing, cancel broadcasts on large-scale visions on street corners, and support Please discuss with the people involved in the event a request to refrain from watching the game at the intended restaurant.
・ For the people involved in the tournament and the press, people all over the world will be impressed by advocating a "style of watching sports and cheering under a pandemic" from Japan, making full use of various latest technologies. We request that you share.
6 At the end
・ The organizers of the event and the government should promptly inform the citizens of their thoughts on how to recognize the risks mentioned above, how to mitigate them, and under what circumstances strong measures should be taken. ..
・ The tournament organizer, the government, and the prefectures where the event will be held will continue to cooperate with infection control so that people do not waste the labor they have paid for infection control. Please.
・ From our experience so far, we believe that it is necessary to take strong measures in a timely manner when we detect signs of spread of infection and tight medical care.
We will continue to monitor the infection status as appropriate and propose necessary measures.
・ Please share this opinion with the IOC (International Olympic Committee) at the Games Organizing Committee.
Acknowledgments
We would like to thank Dr. Harumi Ishikawa, Dr. Taisuke Nakata, Dr. Atsushi Nishida, Dr. Kaori Muto (in alphabetical order), and many others for their efforts in formulating this proposal. I would like to thank you here.
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