Ukrainian dead end

In fact, if we talk about the practical side of the issue, then there is nothing special about the Ukrainian GTS in particular and the independence of the Ukrainian territory in general, the completion of the construction of the Russian-European gas pipeline "Nord Stream 2", in general, as it did not threaten, and does not threaten ...

Whatever Ukrainian politicians say about this.

And Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, of course, usually has, according to the well-known Russian proverb, “there is not a word in simplicity,” here in his recent interview with an official Russian TV channel he was absolutely not cunning on this topic.

The Russian "Gazprom" really has a valid agreement with Ukrainian transit countries, moreover, concluded under the guarantees of the European Commission.

And Gazprom really intends to honor this agreement with all its considerable strength.

For this is stupid in his, Gazprom's interests, below we will explain why.

And all the hysteria of energy (from myself, I will add from my heart: and not only energy) parasites of the limitrophic type, which are currently the gas transportation systems of Ukraine and / or the same, for example, Poland, - at its origins lies in a slightly different plane.

The plane is purely geopolitical and only for political reasons has become financial and no other.

Now let's try to explain why - using the example of Ukraine, of course, because this is both clearer and more convenient.

And it's easier to understand who is to blame for this equation and for what.

Just a reminder.

According to the current gas agreement between Russia and Ukraine, starting from this year, 2021, and until the end of 2024, the Russian side undertakes to pump at least 40 billion cubic meters through the Ukrainian GTS. m per year. Now, please just take into account that domestic gas consumption in Ukraine itself is plus or minus 30 billion cubic meters for the same year. And there has never been a direct contract for the supply of gas from Russia to Ukraine. And consequently, out of 40 billion cubic meters, at least 20-25 (if not all 30, there are already very clever schemes for exporting "its own production") is selected by the transit country itself. It is only money that goes to Gazprom then in a roundabout way, through, say, Slovakia, following the world-famous anecdotal reverse. The gas itself remains on the Square. Moreover,there is not even a technical possibility to drive it back and forth in real life on the reverse.

Well, the rest of the remainder of the pumped volumes is Moldova and Transnistria.

Plus or minus different pennies - the same Slovakia for milk for harmfulness, or even just for tea.

And tell me, please, how can the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline running in the cold Baltic waters and therefore, apparently, harsh since its inception, the Russian-North European gas pipeline, affect all this unthinkable southern, almost operetta-Odessa-Moldavian beauty?

Who does not have a native southern sense of humor at all and which is why neither Moldovan, nor even more so, God forbid, Ukrainian volumes in general never and under no circumstances even claim.

And never, in general, did not pretend: the Germans habitually entrust their famous shepherd dogs to scratching behind their left ear with their right hind leg, their business does not need such balancing act.

And don't look for any, in general, politics in this: it's just that these southern guys have always had some problems with solvency and financial discipline, there is no big secret here.

And Russian patience and indulgence in the German national mentality, famous for the word ordnung, was not noticed when it was born.

In a word, it is not worth the trouble.

Such, excuse me, things.

But we are still not talking about that now.

Therefore, we simply state in order not to return to the above: the Ukrainian GTS, according to the current agreement with the Russian Gazprom, approved and endorsed by the European Commission, must be guaranteed to pump through its pipe, first of all, those conditional 30 billion cubic meters that go for domestic consumption.

Plus volumes for Moldova and Transnistria, plus insignificant welding.

Total 40 billion cubic meters.

And, in principle, everything.

The rest of the pumping is additional contracts, moreover urgent, most often on the so-called.

spots.

And no one is going to violate the body of the contract itself, even when it finishes operating: the Ukrainian GTS itself would have been alive at that time, and that is, there are certain doubts about its purely technical condition.

So where is it from then (we will involuntarily quote the British classic, because it is now fashionable and in trend) "this terrible howl in the swamps"?

An illustration of which, simply in the genre "you can't think of it on purpose," can serve at least, for example, yesterday's extravagant speech by the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Pan Kuleba, who demanded Crimea back, a block of shares in all passing the territory of Ukraine, gas pipelines, and even money, of course - and all this is for some reason from Germany, which Pan Kuleba not only did not win in the war (this is usually required exclusively from the opponents who signed the surrender), but, on the contrary, is from it to offensive dependent position.

It is difficult to explain it otherwise than hysterics - it is more difficult to understand the reason that caused it.

Well.

Now let's try to clarify.

It's actually pretty simple here.

If we consider Nord Stream 2, which is inexorably being completed right now in real time, simply as another commercial gas pipeline, as, in particular, Germany and Russia see it, then it is really unlikely to have any impact not only on the dying Ukrainian economy, but even on the current filling of the Ukrainian pipe. And Nord Stream 2 itself certainly does not pose any danger to this state-territorial entity. But if you look at Nord Stream 2 from the Ukrainian point of view - as part of a gigantic process associated with the development of Eurasian transport corridors controlled by Russia, then both Ukraine and Poland, and, God forgive me, the "Baltic republics" really have something different to be afraid or what to be afraid of - here, frankly,you just need to panic vigorously.

In short: the “containment zone” in trans-Eurasian logistics, carefully constructed in a purely British classical style (gas pipelines are only part of the problem), designed to complicate the movement of transcontinental commodity flows as much as possible, turned out to be completely meaningless with the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2: Russian transport corridors simply bypassed, even in such a specific and politicized area as energy trade.

Yes, it was not easy, extremely labor-intensive and all the time was perceived with hostility not only by Western partners, but also by a decent part of the Russian economic establishment inside the country.

But now, in fact, these corridors exist and bring real benefits: here you have the port infrastructure on the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea, here you have a railway line bypassing Ukraine in the south, plus colossal investments in the road network around St. Leningrad region. Here you have all sorts of energy flows: from Turkish to Nord Stream 2 discussed in this article.

But if from the point of view of big geopolitics, from the point of view of big players, this is, of course, a strategic, but quite local success, and the game on the “big chessboard” will undoubtedly be continued.

For the same unfortunate Ukraine, what is happening is a real disaster.

Because from her life, no less, no less, but one of the fundamental meanings of her, Ukraine, existence as a natural obstacle in the transcontinental Eurasian trade leaves.

For this territory is no longer something that is not capable of withstanding Russia from the point of view of "sticks in the wheels" on large transport corridors, even now it cannot just threaten Europe to close the valve - neither independently, nor even, which is especially important, by direct order of overseas "Curators", if the sudden itch.

In Europe, they will simply shrug their shoulders and say: "Well, close it."

And that's all.

The territory has simply lost a gorgeous resource for the usual logistic blackmail, and life without this resource causes real panic there, at the top.

Although who is to blame.

But most importantly, will they continue, without this very resource, to pay money to maintain this burned-out theater in a more or less efficient state?

No, there will be something, probably, of course.

But who and how much is a very big question ...

As a matter of fact, let us repeat: nothing unexpected has happened to Nord Stream 2 in recent months.

If only for Kiev, and even then hardly.

There are, in general, and there are smart heads, they could not have foreseen such a completely natural scenario.

And so, of course, this is a completely predictable endgame for one of the elements of one of the games of the big game: figuratively speaking, nothing special happened to the “train of young Ukrainian democracy”.

He was simply driven into a dead end, into a sump.

For some time, while other, more responsible people, apparently now definitely without the Ukrainians themselves, will decide the issues of arranging a future life on this unfortunate land.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.