This Monday, England decided to postpone the last stage of deconfinement by four weeks, due to a rapid surge in coronavirus cases.
A very early decision, as the country knows less than 10,000 cases per day and less than 10 daily deaths.
Is this the end of the European model which has been waiting until the last moment to act?
Due to the rise of the Delta variant, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday that the final stage of English deconfinement, initially scheduled for June 21, was postponed by four weeks to July 19. The rise in coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths over the past month justified his decision. Contaminations have increased from 2,000 to 7,000 per day in a few weeks, and are still increasing by 35% every seven days. Hospitalizations are also increasing, although the number of deaths per day remains below 10.
"We can not continue (...) when there is a real possibility that the virus outperforms vaccines and that thousands of additional deaths follow", pleaded the Prime Minister.
The decision may seem logical, but perhaps marks a turning point in the strategy of European countries in the face of the coronavirus.
The days of waiting are over
Never on the Old Continent had such a strong political decision been taken in “only” 7,000 cases and less than ten deaths per day. It suffices to make the comparison with the period of December-January, when the Alpha variant, which had become the majority, had brought the United Kingdom to the edge of the health precipice. It was not until more than 40,000 cases per day, more than 500 daily deaths and saturated hospitals to push the government to act, while the explosion of cases had been noted for a long time.
Same reasoning with France, Portugal, Spain and Germany during the second wave.
Each time, it was only at the foot of the wall that the countries decided to act, breaking with the Asian strategy, which consists in acting very strongly at the slightest quivering of the figures, even if it means confining entire cities because only one no one has tested positive.
Act fast to act well
However, “we have seen for a long time the limit of the European wait-and-see strategy on the health side.
It is good to see that prevention and anticipation are starting to enter their political culture, ”says Hélène Rossinot, doctor specializing in public health.
Longer confinements, much heavier human assessments, more exhausting measures and the appearance of variants favored by the high viral circulation, the list of reproaches is long.
For Hélène Rossinot, Boris Johnson's decision to put a stop to this early in the development of cases “looks like a turning point in European strategies, and this is good news.
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First wave trauma
This is because the British balance sheet has been particularly heavy.
With more than 128,000 deaths for 64 million inhabitants, the Kingdom has 198 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, much more than France (165), Spain (164) or Germany (111).
And the government's wait-and-see attitude deeply marked the first two waves.
As said previously, in December 2020, while waiting for the last moment to reconfigure, but also during the first wave, when the British first relied on collective immunity before changing their minds in the face of the health disaster of such a strategy.
"England has shown a delay in public decision-making in the face of the coronavirus, explaining its number of cases and deaths well above the European average", notes Laurent Chambaud, director of the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health.
In addition to the health assessment, the social cost was also very heavy: confinement starting in December-January and ending depending on the region until mid-March, and again, the first stage of deconfinement only concerned the reopening of schools. .
As a result of this wait-and-see attitude, according to a survey by the YouGov institute, 71% of English people questioned this week are in favor of this postponement of deconfinement.
The variant, the best justification
Another reason that may have allowed this change in policy is the appearance of variants. More uncontrollable, more transmissible, more contaminating, they in a way allow governments to revise their plans without admitting failure: how could they have anticipated a variant that did not yet exist? "But sincerely what matters is above all to do what is effective, regardless of the political justification", positive Hélène Rossinot.
"The Delta variant is more contagious and makes the first doses of vaccine less effective", raises Laurent Chambaud.
According to some studies, the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible than the Alpha variant, itself 50 to 74% more transmissible than the original strain of Covid-19.
At the same time, while a first-time vaccinated person had a 50% lower risk of contracting the original coronavirus, it would rather be 30% against the Delta variant.
Vaccines as an achievable horizon
This is another major change that justifies strong anticipation, vaccination, giving a real objective to these postponements of deconfinement. Four weeks gained, it is above all four weeks to be able to vaccinate, and especially in England, to vaccinate twice. Currently, almost 80% of adults have received one dose but only 57% have received two doses. The stated objective is to offer by July 19 a first dose to all adults and two doses to two-thirds of adults, including all over 50 and vulnerable. However, while the first injection only protects 30%, the double dose would achieve 90% protection against hospitalization. "Considering the time between two doses, a few weeks of time saving, it is really useful", pleads Hélène Rossinot.
The fact remains that in the face of the current viral outbreak, the government is not taking new restrictive measures, it is just delaying certain future lifting.
“Considering the level of circulation of the virus, I think that this may be sufficient, but I hope that they will be able to adjust quickly if this is not the case, considers Hélène Rossinot.
The opportunity to see if England has really entered into a strategy of anticipation.
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