Every morning, Nicolas Beytout analyzes political news and gives us his opinion.
This Tuesday, he is interested in the study of the Elabe polling institute which estimates that the left would have lost eight points since the regional ones of 2015, to the benefit of the right.
Another study conducted at the national level by a think tank, Fondapol, shows that the French are only 18% to declare themselves on the left.
They are twice as likely to say they are right wing, almost 40%.
We must always be wary of polls but, study after study, we can see a real development in French public opinion.
A slide to the right.
The country has probably never been so right wing in 50 years.
If we except, of course, the voices which were directed towards Jacques Chirac vis-a-vis Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2002. And naturally, this rightisation of the country is done first to the detriment of the left.
The Elabe polling institute, for example, measured that between the last regional elections in 2015 and today, the left could have lost eight points, to end up at a tiny 26% of voting intentions.
Whatever the configuration?
Whether there are one, two, three or sometimes four lists?
Absolutely.
And that too is bad news for the left.
In Hauts-de-France, the only region where the left is united, polls place it at only 20%.
A historic stronghold has collapsed.
Does this movement of opinion benefit La République en Marche?
Yes, it feeds this vote, even if it is difficult to compare 2021 with 2015 since at that time, Emmanuel Macron's party did not exist.
But beware, the right-wing also affects En Marche.
Elabe points out, for example, that in Normandy, 20% of Macron voters in 2017 will vote for Hervé Morin, the outgoing center-right president.
Another fascinating study, carried out at the national level by an excellent think tank, Fondapol, shows a startling phenomenon.
When people are asked to place themselves on a scale from left to right, only 18% of the French say they are left.
They are twice as likely to say they are right wing, almost 40%.
And those who declare themselves at the center?
They are 16%, almost as much as the French on the left.
It is a historical phenomenon which, moreover, is accelerating.
The same Fondapol measured that the left has gone from 22 to 18% in just 18 months.
The right, which had only 12 points in advance, has today 20. A chasm.
And, an aggravating circumstance, the younger the voters, the faster they slide to the right.
The National Rally also benefits?
Largely, yes.
For example, in Normandy, 25% of François Fillon voters in 2017 announced that they would vote in the regional elections for Nicolas Bay, the head of the National Rally list.
And it will be even clearer in Paca where 40% will vote Mariani.
It is true that, in this region, En Marche and the Republicans did what was necessary to disgust their constituents.
The slope to the right will be all the more steep.