Two-way fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate will become the norm

Experts said that it is necessary to establish the concept of “risk neutrality” in exchange rates, and actively manage foreign exchange risks based on their own characteristics.

　　Our reporter Liu Qi, trainee reporter Yang Jie

　　After a previous wave of appreciation, the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has been corrected recently.

According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar was reported at 6.3572 on June 1, and at 6.3773, 6.3811, and 6.4072 from June 2 to June 4, respectively.

At the same time, the onshore renminbi-to-dollar exchange rate and the offshore renminbi-to-dollar exchange rate have also been adjusted to varying degrees recently. The unilateral appreciation of the renminbi has been significantly weakened, and the two-way volatility has been strengthened.

　　Regarding the recent correction of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, Wen Bin, the chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that this was mainly affected by the trend of the US dollar index.

Changes in the US dollar index have a lot to do with the Fed’s monetary policy expectations, and the Fed’s monetary policy is mainly affected by macro data.

On June 3, the ADP employment data released by the United States exceeded market expectations.

The Fed stated that it will gradually reduce or even cancel the secondary market's purchase of corporate bonds, which has caused the market to expect the Fed to reduce its bond purchases in advance, which has led to a rapid rise in the US dollar index.

　　Zhang Yu, assistant to the director of Huachuang Securities Research Institute and chief macro analyst, also believed that the recent decline in the RMB exchange rate was mainly affected by the rebound of the US dollar index in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily.

On the whole, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar showed two-way fluctuations.

　　In fact, the recent supervisory authorities have repeatedly emphasized that renminbi exchange rate fluctuations will become the norm.

Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, stated on May 23 that “the future trend of the RMB exchange rate will continue to depend on market supply and demand and changes in the international financial market, and two-way fluctuations will become the norm.”

The seventh working meeting of the national foreign exchange market self-discipline mechanism held on May 27 also pointed out that “in the future, there will be many market and policy factors that affect the exchange rate, and the renminbi may appreciate or depreciate”.

　　"Securities Daily" reporter noted that on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange interactive platform, investors continue to ask A-share foreign trade companies about exchange rate fluctuations.

In response, some companies replied, “The company’s main business income is relatively sensitive to the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the renminbi. If the exchange rate changes significantly, it will directly affect the cost of the company’s imported raw materials and the selling price of exported products, resulting in exchange gains and losses, which will affect the company’s net Profit. The company mainly adopts the method of rationally arranging the structure and quantity of foreign currency and balancing foreign currency revenues and expenditures to control exchange rate risks, and arranges the term structure of foreign currency deposits and loans according to exchange rate market trends, and appropriately conducts foreign exchange derivatives transactions to lock in costs, avoid and prevent Exchange rate or interest rate risk, reduce the adverse impact of exchange gains and losses on business performance."

　　In response to the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, the above-mentioned staff stated, “The company has handled forward foreign exchange purchases and avoided exchange rate risks by locking in the cost of foreign exchange purchases, but we will not make unilateral appreciation or depreciation direction judgments, nor Will speculate in foreign exchange. At the same time, the company is also working hard in developing high-end products and optimizing product structure. After all, after the increase in operating efficiency and product gross profit margin, the ability to resist rising production costs can be significantly improved."

　　International students and purchasing agents are also very concerned about exchange rate fluctuations.

Zhou Xi (pseudonym), who is currently in the third year of university in the United States, told the Securities Daily reporter, “I and my classmates of international students will remind our parents that they can exchange a small portion of U.S. dollars for reserve when the exchange rate is right. Because the exchange rate has two-way fluctuation characteristics, we Currency exchange is based on the principle of'small amount and many times', and each time you don't exchange too much, just satisfy your study abroad life.

　　A person with 8 years of U.S. purchasing experience told the "Securities Daily" reporter, "Exchange rate fluctuations in both directions are normal. The adjustment of commodity link prices is the true reflection of exchange rate and counter discount fluctuations. Before customers place an order, I will ask them to carefully Read the purchasing instructions on the product page in the store."

　　"From the perspective of the next stage, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will maintain a two-way volatility at a reasonable equilibrium level, because from a fundamental point of view, the RMB exchange rate does not have a basis for a substantial appreciation or devaluation." Wen Bin said that on the one hand, Continue to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy adjustments, which have a direct impact on the trend of the US dollar exchange rate, and will also have an external spillover effect on non-US dollar currencies, including the RMB.

On the other hand, domestic market players should establish the concept of "risk neutrality" in exchange rates, and should not bet on the appreciation or devaluation of the renminbi, and should actively manage foreign exchange risks based on their own characteristics.