• Science 2020 equaled 2016 as the hottest year

There is a 40% probability that, in at least one of the next five years, the average annual temperature of the planet will exceed 1.5 degrees above

pre-industrial levels

for the first time

.

This new climate prediction is contained in an annual to 10-year global climate bulletin, produced by the

United Kingdom

Met Office, the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) main center for such predictions.

It is a publication that is updated every year based on the knowledge of renowned climatologists and the best computer models of climate centers around the world.

In addition, there is a 90% probability that at least one year in the five years between 2021 and 2025 will become

the warmest ever recorded,

which would unseat 2016 from the top position.

Between 2021 and 2025, high-latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to receive more rainfall, and

the number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic

is more likely to

increase

compared to the recent past (value defined as the mean of the period between 1981 and 2010).

"These are not mere statistics," said WMO Secretary General

Petteri Taalas,

who added: "Rising temperatures mean more thaw, higher sea levels and more heat waves and extreme weather events of various kinds, as well as greater impact on food safety, health, the environment and sustainable development. "

Taalas pointed out: "This high-level scientific study shows that we are getting quantifiable and inexorable

towards the less ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement

on Climate Change. It is a new wake-up call on the need to accelerate the adoption of commitments. to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. "

"The newsletter also highlights the need to work for climate adaptation. Only half of the 193 WMO members have state-of-the-art early warning services. Countries should continue their efforts to develop services which will be essential to promote adaptation in climate-sensitive sectors - such as health, water, agriculture and renewable energies - and promote early warning systems that reduce the negative consequences of extreme phenomena, "he said.

In addition to limitations in early warning services, there is a serious lack of meteorological observations, particularly in Africa and island countries, which greatly impairs the accuracy of early warnings not only in these areas, but throughout the world. world, according to Taalas.

1.2 DEGREES IN 2020

In 2020 - one of the three warmest years on record - the global average temperature was

1.2 ° C above pre

-

industrial

benchmark

levels

, according to the WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2020, published last April.

It highlights the accelerated deterioration of climate change indicators, such as the

rise in sea level, the melting of sea ice and extreme weather events,

as well as the worsening of their repercussions on socio-economic development.

Data published in the Met Office newsletter confirms that trend.

The possibility of transient temperature values ​​reaching 1.5 ° C above the reference values ​​has almost doubled compared to last year's predictions.

Adam Scaife,

head of 10-year seasonal forecasting at the UK Met Office, indicated, regarding the publication of the bulletin, that "when assessing the increase in global temperature in the context of climate change, the average temperature of the planet is analyzed. in the long term, not the average values ​​of specific years or months. "

"However, it may be that in some moments in the next few years the level of 1.5 degrees will be temporarily exceeded," he said.

The aim of the Paris Agreement is to keep the global temperature increase this century well below 2 ° C relative to pre-industrial levels and to continue efforts to

limit this increase to 1.5 ° C.

However, national emission reduction commitments are currently well below what is necessary to achieve that goal.

The year 2021 and the crucial negotiations on climate change to be held in November in the framework of the 26th Climate Summit have been described as a "decisive" opportunity to prevent climate change from spiraling further out of control.

In addition, the fight against climate change is high on the agenda of the G-7 leaders' summit to be held in the United Kingdom from June 11 to 13.

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