• At the end of April, the EU incorporated its new greenhouse gas reduction target for 2030 into its Climate Law. From - 40% until then, to - 55% now.

    On Wednesday, Germany in turn announced that it wanted to set a more ambitious 2030 target.

  • If the two announcements are not completely linked, Germany anticipates what its neighbors will have to do in the coming months.

    Because if the new objective is set in stone, it remains to distribute the efforts between the Twenty-Seven.

  • Increase national targets, create new carbon markets, toughen European directives… Several levers are on the table.

    It remains to find the right distribution.

    One thing is certain: France will have to revise its 2030 target upwards.

After the European Union, Germany.

The last few days have been marked in Europe by strong announcements of an upward revision of climate targets for 2030.

Brussels is now targeting - 55% of greenhouse gas emissions [compared to the 1990 level], against - 40% until then.

At a European Council in mid-December, the leaders of the 27 Member States had already agreed on this ambition.

"But it was only a political agreement," recalls Neil Makaroff, responsible for European policies at the Climate Action Network (RAC).

Two weeks ago, this target of -55% was written into the European climate law, which now makes it a binding legislative agreement.

"

Is Germany taking the lead?

Berlin's decision to accelerate in turn is more unexpected. On Wednesday, the German Minister of Finance announced that his country now intends to reduce its emissions by 65% ​​by 2030 compared to 1990, against the 55% he was previously targeting. "There has been a lively debate around the climate law (in Germany), which the Constitutional Court challenged at the end of April, judging it too unambitious," begins Nicolas Berghmans, senior researcher in Energy-Climate policies at the Institute for Sustainable Development of international relations (Iddri). Added to this is the campaign for the legislative elections next September, for which the Greens are leading the polls. In this context, the CDU and the SPD, currently in government, undoubtedly wanted to show, through this - 65%,that they too were ambitious on climate issues. "

However, by setting this new goal today, Germany is anticipating what its neighbors will have to do in the months to come.

Because we are there: the new European objective being engraved in legislative marble, it remains to define the way in which the additional efforts will be distributed to reach these - 55%.

Negotiations already underway?

"On July 14, the European Commission will put on the table thirteen directives, that is to say thirteen changes to European laws, the first step towards achieving this new objective," indicates Pascal Canfin, chairman of the "environment" commission. of the European Parliament. We must expect a revision of the rules of the European carbon markets [which today cover the sectors of industry and energy - see box], a change in CO2 standards for cars, a revision of the guidelines of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)… ”. "In addition, there are sectors not covered by the European carbon market, and for which there are, instead, national greenhouse gas reduction targets," adds Nicolas Berghmans. This is the case for transport, construction or agriculture.Once again, they will have to be reviewed. "

So much for the main levers.

It remains to agree on the distribution, knowing that pressing a particular button will be in the interests of some, but will cause an outcry in others.

Enough to promise tough negotiations between the Twenty-Seven.

They will not wait for July 14.

"They have already started, and the next European Council on 25 May should focus, in large part, on this subject," says Pascal Canfin.

Three possible scenarios

Neil Makaroff of the RAC sees three possible scenarios. "The first would consist in proposing a very strong revision of the European carbon market," he begins. This amounts to focusing most of the additional efforts on the energy and industrial markets. This option would do the business of France to the detriment of Germany and the other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, today the most industrialized and still using coal.

The second scenario would aim to play on two tables, by distributing the efforts between the sectors regulated by the European carbon market (industry and energy, therefore) and those regulated by national objectives (transport, buildings, agriculture, etc., mentioned above). "But that would imply a sharp increase in these national objectives", warns Neil Makaroff. Nothing to delight Paris, especially since the current rule, in the sharing of efforts, is to ask more of the countries which have the highest GDP per capita.

The third scenario, pushed by Germany, consists of creating “new European carbon markets, in particular for transport and construction,” continues Neil Makaroff.

Thus, we would not touch the national objectives, but we would focus the efforts on European companies in these sectors, subjecting them to emission quotas.

"

Between - 43 and - 50% for France?

This last option is not favored by the Climate Action Network.

"The risk is that the efforts will be transferred to European consumers, with price increases for gasoline or heating," fears Neil Makaroff.

Which could lead us straight to a new “yellow vests” movement.

It ticks just as much on the position of France, "which pushes, without hiding, for the option" one ", in order to have the least possible additional efforts to provide".

There is only one certainty: whatever the scenario adopted, France will not cut it;

it will have to revise its own target upwards.

It is currently -40%.

The new should be “between - 43% and - 50% depending on the options selected,” it was indicated on Monday at the Ministry of Ecological Transition.

And why not - 65%, like Germany?

"It would not be logical to ask France to align itself, knowing that the gains in additional emissions will be more difficult to seek in particular because we have already left coal", explains Pascal Canfin.

"Germany can almost achieve its objective of - 65% by only advancing its exit from coal from 2038 to 2030", confirms Nicolas Berghmans.

"Floor on a new climate law in 2022"

“We would still have liked France to set a target of -55%, slips Neil Makaroff, for the RAC.

And that it anticipates at least the inevitable increase in these climate objectives.

What it does not do in its Climate & Resilience bill [under review], where the objective to be achieved remains - 40% in 2030. "

A criticism that Pascal Canfin does not make: "It is difficult to anticipate future European objectives without knowing the rules of the game which will be chosen by the Twenty-Seven to achieve them," slips the MEP.

But once this is clarified, we will indeed have to work on a new climate law in 2022. "

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* The carbon markets establish an emissions trading system in the sectors concerned, namely energy and industry so far in Europe.

Clearly, a ceiling on greenhouse gas emissions (quotas) is set for industries participating in this market, and at a level lower than their actual emission level.

If the operator reduces his emissions, he can resell his unused emission rights.

Otherwise, he must buy some, according to the polluter pays principle.

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