Iranian negotiators: "This is more than we expected"

Negotiations for a return to the nuclear deal are ongoing in Vienna and, despite huge efforts to undermine it, seem to be moving forward at a good pace.

For example, Negar Mortazavi, a well-known Iranian journalist based in Washington (166 thousand subscribers on Twitter), writes: “What the US put on the negotiating table was a very serious economic proposal, this is more than the Iranians expected, and the Iranians were very surprised, said one of Tehran's officials. "

Officially, Washington continues to speak of its readiness to lift all sanctions that are not directly related to the JCPOA 2015 nuclear deal. And one of the most important measures that await in Iran is the lifting of oil sanctions.

For oil is Tehran's quick way to replenish its depleted economic reserves and freely trade huge volumes with China and India.

And it looks like Rouhani's negotiating team has reached important agreements in this direction. 

For on May 5, 2021, at a meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, the President of Iran made an optimistic statement that "the sanctions against Iran have been destroyed and if the Iranians unite (personal telegram to the IRGC generals -

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.

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), Then the sanctions will soon be lifted."

During this speech, Rouhani raised the topic of Iran's dependence on oil sales: "Iran's economy has been dependent on oil since the discovery of this fossil energy in the country."

Further, the president boasted that he "managed to reduce the dependence of the budget on oil to 8% and this is a historic record." 

We have written more than once in what a deplorable state the Iranian economy is from Trump's sanctions, therefore, with all due respect to Mr. Rouhani, “8% of the economy's dependence on oil exports” sounds cheerful, but politically optimistic.

However, the emphasis on the oil dependence of the economy was not accidental by Rouhani - so that some of his most important listeners would understand that the Iranian economy will not start without lifting the oil sanctions. 

And this agreement, it seems, is already in his pocket.

Rouhani and his team are accelerating as they have less time each day.

On June 18, let me remind you, the presidential elections in Iran, after which the transit of power will begin, which will last until August. 

So the end of July is a red line for Rouhani, Zarif and their team of negotiators to celebrate complete victory on the battlefields of the JCPOA in Vienna or embrace the bitterness of defeat (the stakes are high, and for some, even at a cost to life).

This is well understood by those whom the Western press calls hardliners, the Russian press calls conservatives, and I call them hawks.

Therefore, in Iran itself, a real political drama is blazing (the leaking of audio files of Zarif's interview is one of its most striking episodes): hawks against pragmatists and their successes in Vienna.

Sabotage in Natanz, killing Fakhrizadeh, draining audio files with Zarif, increasing uranium enrichment - everything works against the pragmatists. Another nuisance that fell out of nowhere: on May 4 in the morning in the north of Tehran (an elite district of the city) in the courtyard of a residential high-rise, the body of a 52-year-old woman was found, who turned out to be the first secretary of the Swiss embassy, ​​who for some unknown reason fell out of a window or fell from balcony of his home on the 17th floor of a skyscraper. The incident looks extraordinary, because Switzerland is a traditional mediator in negotiations and transactions between the United States and Iran, and this employee, according to The Independent, led just the "American sector" at the Swiss embassy in Tehran.

The entire regional press in Switzerland writes about this incident, but at the global level, the scandal is not yet inflated: the Tehran police are investigating the incident.

The hawks against the pragmatists have the most powerful weapon in their hands - practically all media, state television and, of course, cinema.

A dream factory with writers, directors, actors (and actresses) is a tender and sensitive place of one of the most formidable generals, so cinema is also included in the battle against Rouhani.  

For example, in a feature series recently shown on a state channel, the country's Foreign Ministry is presented as a nest of Western spies trying to steal "nuclear secrets" (did you imagine this on Russian TV channels? Thank God I have not. -

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.

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.).

In another documentary, Iranian negotiators remind Dunno on the Moon, such simpletons who now and then fall into the traps of treacherous Americans.

The film, titled Game's End, explains in an ominous voice that "America plans to lift sanctions only on paper and force Iran to reduce nuclear activity in exchange for nothing," and this, too, on the state channel, by the way.

It is difficult and ungrateful, gentlemen, to be president in Iran. 

Using their control over the Iranian ether, the hawks are swinging a club at the Iranian negotiators.

At this point, the reader can feel the degree of intensity of the political intraspecific struggle of the Iranian political establishment. 

In 2019, in the first season of the TV series Gando (Iranian state television, yes, you understood that correctly), Guard Corps agents root out corruption and betrayal in a government reminiscent of the Rouhani government. 

The Washington Post devoted a long and fascinating article to this film war, and Ali Vaez, director of Iranian direction of the International Crisis Group ICG (the same one from where Biden's special envoy to Iran Rob Malley came straight to the White House), commented on what is happening as follows: that opponents of the JCPOA in Iran orchestrated an onslaught against the renewal of the deal under the Rouhani administration.

The surge in attacks is driven by the hardliners' fear of the upcoming presidential election, as successful negotiations could push a moderate candidate like Javad Zarif to run. ”

Here I agree with Mr. Vaez and write about this in every second column of my own about Iran: the conservatives are not against the nuclear deal, they are against Rouhani or a person from “that camp” getting it.

They want to get it themselves.

That's all.

As if having heard my words, one of the candidates who announced their participation in the presidential elections, "hardliner" Rostam Gasemi (former oil minister in the government of Ahmadinejad) nods happily in response from the pages of Tehran Times: "If I am elected president, I myself will lead the negotiations and lead them! " 

Ah, Vienna, Geneva, how beautiful you are in the spring!

I fully approve of Mr. Gasemi's decision, moreover, if I were in his place, I would drag out the negotiations for several years and conduct them on a daily basis in Vienna to the accompaniment of Mozart's symphonies.

But jokes aside.

Negotiations to return to the JCPOA are closely linked to the start of the presidential campaign in Iran.

Next week, May 11, 2021, according to the election schedule, the registration of candidates begins and it will last five days. 

Further, the Council of Guards (mostly representatives of the IRGC, but headed by Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, 94-year-old influential elder, protege of former President Ahmadinejad). 

The names of the registered candidates who passed the sieve of the Guardian Council and who were allowed to participate in the elections, we will learn from 26 to 28 May.

And this is where the fun begins.

Because it is clear that the list of names will reflect the successes or failures of Rouhani's team in Vienna.

So far, the alignment is as follows: among the supporters of the hard line, the number 1 candidate in mentioning is the cleric Ebrahim Raisi, the head of the Iranian judicial system, punishing the sword of a specific Iranian justice, who traditionally prefers to touch the necks of pragmatists and dissidents.

Among the pragmatists, Foreign Minister Javad Zarif was and remains number 1 in popularity and mention ratings.

But so far no one knows if they have applied for participation in the elections. 

Which, however, does not prevent us from starting an introductory series of articles about the most likely participants in the Iranian presidential race - 2021.

The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.