[Explanation] How important is weather forecasting?
It not only affects whether people will add or remove clothing and carry rain gear tomorrow.
It also affects agricultural production and transportation.
Even before the advent of extreme weather, it is an outpost to protect people's lives and property.
In the weather station, all kinds of complex information and data are collected, and decisions are made based on their own experience. The person who forecasts the weather in the next 24 hours or even the next few months is the chief forecaster.
Often their decisions affect all weather-related activities in a province or even a region.
Lu Jinglong is the chief forecaster. Recently, the reporter walked into the Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory to explore how this young man became a "forecaster" who dared to predict changes in "the heavens".
[Explanation] As a "man in science and engineering", Lu Jinglong's preferences are both special and logical, and that is the formula.
He told reporters that it was precisely because of this that he followed the principles of atmospheric science and used mathematical formulas to break the fog of the weather every day, allowing Lu Jinglong to enjoy it, especially when he made a breakthrough, the refreshing feeling reminded him. You can laugh all the time.
After finishing graduate school and becoming a forecaster, another attribute of weather fascinated him.
[Concurrent] Lu Jinglong, Chief Forecaster of Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory
My feeling is weather. The reason why it is so attractive and bigger is because of its unknown nature.
Because, the weather, as the ancients said, the weather is unpredictable, so no matter who you are, no one can accurately predict what the future will be like before the weather is out.
So we can only say that through the current technical means, to gradually approach its real situation.
But we cannot fully grasp it.
So, I think the biggest attraction of meteorology is its unknown, which requires us to continue to explore.
[Explanation] Lu Jinglong is fascinated by the uncertainty of the weather, but he is indeed "injured".
As the final decision maker of a weather forecast, the negative impact of forecast errors is extremely great.
Faced with this situation, Lu Jinglong has his own ideas, not being discouraged, and daring to take responsibility is his consistent style.
[Concurrent] Lu Jinglong, Chief Forecaster of Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory
In the past, it may be a long time to let go, but with more contact, I feel that the forecast has failed. What we will do in the future, and more consideration is the future, that is, how I learn from failures and learn from failures. It gradually compensates for the shortcomings of its own knowledge, and gradually says that it can complete a chain of its own knowledge.
[Explanation] Lu Jinglong, who appears weak in a plaid shirt, thick glasses, and focused eyes, is actually a "man".
He is bold in his work, and he is extremely careful, because the part he is responsible for often involves disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural production and other work in Liaoning Province. A decision may even affect everyone living in Liaoning Province.
[Concurrent] Lu Jinglong, Chief Forecaster of Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory
If the amount of rain we report is too large, we might say that the water conservancy department may release water, causing water from the reservoir. After the release, after the flood season is over, there may be no water, and the reservoir will have no water.
In addition, if the report is too small and a disaster occurs, it may not be beneficial to disaster prevention. Therefore, the overall precipitation forecast is under great pressure.
[Explanation] A strong heart requires superb skills to support, Lu Jinglong explained this point.
Not only did he do well in weather forecasting, he also taught himself programming and wrote a weather information processing system with his colleagues.
Helped Liaoning Province's grid forecast of meteorology to be accurate to five kilometers.
Can quickly filter hundreds of G information, so that forecasters can quickly and accurately make judgments.
And, with the continuous improvement of this system, many old weathermen's decades of experience are being incorporated into it, and the prototype of a new forecast system that combines experience and technology is taking shape.
[Concurrent] Lu Jinglong, Chief Forecaster of Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory
Subjectively and objectively, gradually merge into one, and finally form a set, which we call intelligent grid forecasting.
In the future, it may gradually develop and eventually become called digital forecasting, because as the whole society is calling for a digital society, it is possible that our forecasting will gradually develop towards digitization.
[Explanation] As we all know, with the influence of climate warming and many other factors, the weather is changing more and more.
However, with the joint efforts of Lu Jinglong and his colleagues, the forecast has become more and more accurate.
Lu Jinglong said frankly that the complexity of weather often requires the joint efforts of many generations to make a breakthrough possible. He hopes that he can connect the past and the next to open a new chapter in weather forecasting.
Reporter Yu Ruizhai from Shenyang
Editor in charge: [Wu Qingcai]