The Minister of Health has made his calculations concerning the number of daily contamination of the coronavirus and they are optimistic.

“We were at 40,000 cases per day, we are at 20,000 cases per day and the epidemic is falling by 20 to 25% per week, Olivier Véran explained Monday in an interview with Sciences Po TV.

In 15 days we should therefore be somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000 cases per day.


A situation which according to him would allow "to regain control over the epidemic", but also a return to (almost) normal life. “What we are also seeing is a decrease in the number of hospitalized patients and fewer patients in intensive care. However, we know that today's resuscitation corresponds to the contamination of three weeks ago. So we know that in three weeks, there will be fewer patients in intensive care and that we will have been able to resume the programming of care ", continued the Minister, explaining that this configuration would lead to the" lifting of the constraints "which" weigh very heavily. on the French ”.

The Minister of Health, Olivier Veran, estimates that we will have “between 10,000 and 15,000 cases per day” on May 19, at the time of stage 2 of deconfinement.

We are currently at 23,457 on average smoothed over 7 days (-20% in one week).

(Interview with Sciences Po students)

- Michael Bloch (@Micbloch) May 3, 2021

The number of patients in intensive care up slightly, however

In two weeks, we will be May 19, the date on which health restrictions should be relaxed with a curfew shifted to 9 p.m., the reopening of shops in museums, cinemas, theaters, sports establishments or even terraces.

On Monday, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care units, which had slowly decreased for several days in a row, again increased to 5,630, according to figures from Public Health France.

The total of Covid patients in the hospital is also up slightly, to 28,950, against 28,818 the day before.

In 24 hours, the number of new confirmed positive cases is 3,760, a figure still lower on Monday after the weekend when fewer tests are carried out.


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  • Deconfinement

  • Covid 19

  • Coronavirus

  • Health

  • Olivier Véran