• Since the 3,000 resuscitations and 5,000 cases per day as the objective of the second deconfinement, the government no longer gave itself precise figures as the course to be reached.

  • This could change for the reopening of restaurants, which would depend on very specific health criteria, Emmanuel Macron said on Monday.

  • Should we be delighted with this big comeback in figures?

This Monday, Emmanuel Macron announced that the opening of restaurants would be done step by step and by departments between mid-May and the end of June. Territorialized stages, which will depend both on “the vaccination levels to be achieved in the country, but also on the incidence rate and the level of hospitalizations. Everything will depend on the results we have obtained at each stage, ”said the Head of State.

Before the return of happy days, there is the return of quantified objectives.

Since the second confinement and the stated objective of 3,000 coronavirus patients in intensive care and 5,000 cases per day - this last figure having never been reached - the figures and caps had completely disappeared from government communication.

When a measure was instituted, there was no figure - incidence, hospitalization, intensive care bed occupancy rate - to institute it and no fixed figure to withdraw it.

When the figures did not contradict each other, in particular the incidence of 600 which justified a weekend confinement in the Alpes-Maritimes when the same rate had not called for the same response in Ile-de-France.

Decisions finally objectified

Is the return of precise figures a good thing? For Marie-Aline Bloch, researcher in management sciences at the École des Hautes Etudes en Santé Publique, this is not a shadow of a doubt: “It is important to be able to objectify decisions. Of course, the figures can also appear arbitrary, and it will take education to explain why they were chosen, but they will always be less arbitrary and less vague than current visual navigation, ”she pleads. This visibility is all the more important if the measures are territorialized, which is mentioned both by Emmanuel Macron and by the Minister of Health Olivier Véran. To counter any feeling of injustice or incomprehension between regions, it is better to ensure a maximum of explanation around the criteria adopted.

Especially since Emmanuel Macron evokes several figures at the same time for the reopening, leaving the monopoly of the incidence rate.

And for the specialist, this is a very good thing: "We cannot bet everything on the incidence, which depends a lot on the number of tests carried out, and which risks drastically falling with the implementation of self-tests", not necessarily counted.

The last few weeks are a good illustration of the problem, with a drop in the incidence but also a drop in the number of tests (with schools closed, students have been tested much less).

It is therefore difficult to establish whether the drop in cases is due to the drop in tests or indeed to a better health situation.

Health criteria, really?

“In reality, the figures are complementary. With the incidence, we have a real-time estimate. Hospitalizations or resuscitations take several days or even weeks of delay, but make it possible to consolidate a situation and to have an objective point of view on the situation ”, advances Marie-Aline Bloch. For Dr. Corrine Delpagne, it is certain that it is better to have several indicators, even if for her, everything will not necessarily be readable: “With the number of transfers of intensive care patients between regions, the situation of a hospital is not always that of the territory. "However, for the doctor, it is essential to return to criteria of numbers:" This allows to set a course for the population and to better situate themselves. "

However, since we are talking about figures, note that France is preparing to deconfin with 30,000 new cases per day and 6,000 patients in intensive care, more than 1,000 more than at the peak of the second wave.

“We can see that decisions are motivated by something other than health indicators.

They may be back, but it will also be necessary to use them ”, pleads Corrine Delpagne.

Moreover, Emmanuel Macron did not communicate any precise figure, just that there would be.

And if it is a good thing to plan the reopening of restaurants in areas where the virus does not circulate much, what are these areas currently?

Only four French departments have an incidence of less than 100 on Tuesday.

If the numerical indicators come back, the happy days will wait a little longer.

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  • Coronavirus

  • Covid 19

  • Health

  • Emmanuel Macron

  • epidemic

  • Public health