The government's "Coronavirus Infection Control Subcommittee" shows new indicators for determining which of the four stages that indicate the infection status, "the degree of medical pressure" and "the number of people receiving medical treatment". We reviewed the five factors: "positive rate of PCR test", "number of newly infected people", and "ratio of people whose infection route is unknown".
Of these, there are three items for "medical pressure": "bed usage rate," "hospitalization rate," and "bed usage rate for the severely ill."
According to the summary of the Cabinet Secretariat, in the 10 prefectures where the state of emergency was declared, and in Miyagi and Okinawa prefectures to which "priority measures such as spread prevention" are applied, as of April 21, "medical care" Some local governments are in the most serious "Stage 4" in terms of "tightness" and "number of medical treatments".
Regarding the bed-related indicators, some local governments publish different values based on the "number of beds that can be immediately responded" that can be accepted immediately.
1-1 Medical tight usage rate
First is the tightness of medical care.
As a guide, the bed usage rate is 20% or more for stage 3 and 50% or more for stage 4.
The usage rate of the entire sickbed is
▽ 27% in Tokyo
▽
32% in Saitama
▽
24% in Chiba
▽
26% in Kanagawa
▽
32% in Aichi
▽
29% in Gifu
▽
83% in Osaka
▽ 83% in Hyogo prefecture
▽
56% in Kyoto prefecture ▽
34% in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
53% in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 90% in Okinawa prefecture
1-2 Medical tight hospitalization rate
The standard hospitalization rate is 40% or less for stage 3 and 25% or less for stage 4.
Hospitalization rate is
▽ 30% in Tokyo
▽ Not applicable in Saitama prefecture (see end of sentence)
▽ 28% in Chiba prefecture
▽ Not
applicable in Kanagawa prefecture
▽ Not
applicable in
Aichi prefecture
▽
67% in Gifu prefecture
▽ 11% in Osaka prefecture
▽ 17% in Hyogo prefecture ▽
25% in Kyoto prefecture ▽
24% in Fukuoka prefecture
◇ Not
applicable in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 35% in Okinawa prefecture
1-3 Medically ill people
As a guide, the bed usage rate for severely ill people is 20% or more in stage 3 and 50% or more in stage 4.
The bed usage rate for the severely ill is
▽ 33% in Tokyo
▽
15% in Saitama
▽
6% in Chiba ▽
15% in
Kanagawa
▽
12% in Aichi
▽
7% in Gifu
▽ 84 in Osaka %
▽ 74% in Hyogo prefecture ▽
28% in Kyoto prefecture ▽
13% in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
28% in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 65% in Okinawa prefecture
2 Number of recuperators
Next, the standard number of people receiving medical treatment is 20 or more in stage 3 and 30 or more in stage 4 per 100,000 population.
▽ 38 in Tokyo
▽
26 in Saitama
▽
18 in Chiba
▽
17 in Kanagawa
▽
29 in Aichi
▽
15 in Gifu
▽
167 in Osaka
▽
76 in Hyogo
▽ Kyoto 39 people in the
prefecture ▽ 22 people in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
39 people in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 89 people in Okinawa prefecture
3 Test positive rate
This is the positive rate of PCR tests for the last week.
As a guide, stage 3 is 5% or more, and stage 4 is 10% or more.
▽ 5.7% in Tokyo
▽
4.1% in Saitama
▽
6.5% in Chiba
▽
5.8% in Kanagawa
▽
5.2% in Aichi
▽
4.4% in Gifu
▽
7.9% in Osaka
▽
15.6% in Hyogo
▽ Kyoto 7.5% in
prefecture ▽ 4.8% in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
5.5% in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 6.7% in Okinawa prefecture
4 Number of newly infected people
As a guide, the number of newly infected people in the last week per 100,000 population is 15 or more in stage 3 and 25 or more in stage 4.
▽ 33 people in Tokyo
▽
17 people in Saitama prefecture ▽
15 people in Chiba prefecture ▽
16 people in Kanagawa prefecture
▽
20 people in Aichi prefecture
▽
12 people in Gifu prefecture
▽
90 people in Osaka prefecture
▽
59 people in Hyogo prefecture
▽ Kyoto 30 people in the
prefecture ▽ 20 people in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
16 people in Miyagi prefecture ◇
51 people in Okinawa prefecture
* "14.8 people" in Chiba prefecture.
It is rounded to "15 people", but it is below the standard value for stage 3.
5 Percentage of people with unknown infection route
Finally, the percentage of people whose infection route is unknown.
The standard value is 50% for both stage 3 and stage 4.
▽ 59% in Tokyo
▽
46% in Saitama
▽
49% in Chiba
▽
51% in Kanagawa
▽
45% in Aichi
▽
34% in Gifu
▽
64% in Osaka
▽
48% in Hyogo
▽ Kyoto 47% in
prefecture ▽ 51% in Fukuoka prefecture
◇
45% in Miyagi prefecture
◇ 60% in Okinawa prefecture
The newly adopted "hospitalization rate" as an index is the ratio of those who have been hospitalized to all the recuperators.
As the number of patients with the new coronavirus increases, the number of patients who should be hospitalized but cannot be hospitalized and receive medical treatment at home or institution increases. Therefore, the lower the "hospitalization rate", the more patients cannot be accepted. It is increasing, that is, medical care may be tight.
However, the government's "New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Control Subcommittee" does not apply in the following cases.
▽ When the number of medical treatment is less than 10 per 100,000 population.
▽ Of the number of new positives, those who need to be hospitalized can be hospitalized by the day after the notification of the outbreak.
No stage decisions are made for these municipalities.