In Osaka Prefecture, it was confirmed on the 8th that a record number of 905 people were newly infected with the new coronavirus.



Mutant virus, which is considered to be one of the causes of rapid spread of infection.

When Osaka Prefecture investigated the ages of people infected with the mutant virus until April 5, those in their 30s or younger accounted for nearly 60% of the total.



In future simulations conducted by Osaka Prefecture, it is estimated that the number of newly infected people per day will exceed 1,400 as of the 14th next week, and the number of patients will be the number of beds currently secured by next week. It is estimated that the number will exceed the limit, and there are concerns about the tightness of the medical system.

Percentage of mutant viruses Approximately 60% are in their 30s or younger

Mutant virus, which is considered to be one of the causes of rapid spread of infection.



When Osaka Prefecture investigated the ages of those infected with the mutant virus confirmed by April 5, it tended to be more common among the younger generation.



The percentage of people in their 30s or younger is 58.2%, of which 46.4% are in their 20s or younger, accounting for nearly half of the total.



Osaka Prefecture defines the period from October 10th to February 28th last year as the "third wave", but in the "third wave", 45.6% of all infected people, in their twenties, are in their thirties or younger. The following is 32.2% of all infected people, and even compared to the "third wave", infection with the mutant virus tends to be more common among the younger generation.

Mutant virus has a higher rate of severity than "third wave"

The number of people infected with the new coronavirus mutant virus, which continues to increase in Osaka Prefecture, tends to be higher than the total number of people infected with the third wave.



Osaka Prefecture investigated the proportion of severely ill persons in all persons infected with the "third wave" and all persons infected with the mutant virus found by April 5.



According to this, the proportion of severely ill persons was 3.2% for those infected with the third wave, while it was 4.7% for those infected with the mutant virus.



The number of days from the onset to the severity of the disease was 8 days in the third wave, but it became 6.5 days in the mutant virus, indicating that the mutant virus tends to become more severe in a shorter period of time.



According to Osaka Prefecture, "Since the population parameter of the mutant virus-infected person is small at present, it is difficult to make a simple comparison with the conventional strain, but the severity rate tends to be higher than that of the conventional strain."

According to estimates by Osaka Prefecture, the number will exceed 1,400 on April 14.

The number of infected people in Osaka Prefecture on April 8 was 905, a record high for the third consecutive day, surpassing 900 for the first time.



What will happen to the number of infected people in the future?

Osaka Prefecture is also simulating the number of newly infected people in the future.



Based on the outbreak trend of infected people as of March 31, we assumed that the number of newly infected people after that would double compared to the previous week, and calculated what would happen to the new infected people per day. ..



As a result, it is estimated that the number of newly infected people in Osaka Prefecture will be 1426 as of April 14.

The pace of the number of seriously ill people in Osaka exceeds the estimate of the prefecture

Osaka Prefecture is also simulating the number of severely ill people.

It is estimated that there will be 156 people on April 13th and 166 people on April 14th, but as of April 7th, the number of seriously ill people was 158, which is already higher than the prefecture's calculation. It is increasing at a pace.

Osaka Prefecture Estimated that the number of beds secured by next week will be exceeded

In addition, according to a simulation in Osaka Prefecture

, it is

estimated that the


number of patients with mild and moderate illness will be 2545 on April 14, and


the number of overnight

caregivers


will be

2704 on April 14

.



However, this estimation result is

calculated to exceed the


number of beds

secured by Osaka Prefecture as of April 7,

1766 beds for mild and moderately ill patients,


and 2416 beds for overnight care recipients.


Therefore, there are concerns about the tightness of the medical system.