Recovery is conditioned by access to the vaccine
Audio 03:33
The logo of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) outside the headquarters building in Washington, United States.
REUTERS / Yuri Gripas / File Photo
By: Dominique Baillard Follow
8 mins
The IMF will present its growth forecasts for the world economy shortly.
This eagerly awaited diagnosis should confirm the already perceptible trend: the big gap is widening between those who have regained control over the coronavirus and the others.
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Overall it will get better and better, and much faster than expected.
Global growth will accelerate in 2021, but this figure is only an average, in detail, the divergences appear to be larger and larger.
Only a handful of countries will exceed their level of wealth before the onset of Covid this year, the United States, China, India, South Korea and Indonesia.
What these countries have in common: they have regained control of the coronavirus.
By health control and thanks to the vaccine.
Economists have all become somewhat of a doctor today and to predict economic developments, they are tracking the curves of contamination and the progress of the vaccination campaign.
Their observation: countries in need of vaccines are in the process of dropping out
This is the case of Europe where the third wave which is in the process of surging has pushed governments to reconfine.
And therefore put the economy back on the back burner.
The 27 fell behind in vaccination because they were slower than the British or the Americans to sign contracts but they ordered something to vaccinate their population.
They hope to have achieved immunity by this summer in mid-July, and therefore have a chance to bounce back at the end of the year, especially since they all have stimulus plans to support the recovery.
On the other hand, the outlook is much bleaker in developing countries or countries with middle income
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The GDP per capita of these countries fell by 20%, it is twice as much as in the rich countries according to the estimates of the IMF;
100 million people have fallen back into extreme poverty, especially in Southeast Asia.
And in these countries vaccination could take another two years, due to lack of access to the product pre-empted by the richest countries, and the most agile in negotiations with laboratories.
During this time they will remain permanently exposed to the threat of the coronavirus and its mutants, the Brazilian, the South African and the British.
Without having the financial resources of Europeans to cross this long tunnel.
What resources are available to the IMF to support them?
The IMF can already relieve their finances By extending the moratorium on debt repayment.
This was announced yesterday during the first day of the fund's general meeting, once again virtual.
This will not be enough, we must also increase the resources of these countries.
There are special reserves for this.
The famous SDRs, or special drawing rights, are a bit like the IMF's currency, which it can issue at will, of course with the agreement of all the member states and especially the most powerful of them, United States.
Joe Biden's administration is in favor of this increase in SDRs, it should materialize in the coming days.
To speed up the vaccination campaign, a few tens of billions of dollars are sufficient.
With 12 billion Africa would achieve collective immunity estimates the World Bank.
With $ 44 billion, vaccination could be completed worldwide by next year.
In short
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Two senior executives of Credit Suisse leaving because of the setbacks of the Archegos fund
This American fund plunged the markets ten days ago because of these abysmal losses.
The two bankers involved were unable to take the measure of the risk that the fund made their bank run by financing it.
Swiss credit losses should be announced today, it could amount to $ 4 billion.
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