The latest forecast maps have been released in various parts of the country, showing the probability of being hit by violent shaking with a seismic intensity of 6 lower or higher within the next 30 years.

There is a high probability of 70% or more, especially in areas where huge subduction-zone earthquakes are predicted, such as the Kuril Trough and the Nankai Trough.

Based on the latest research results on active faults and trench-type earthquakes nationwide, the government's Earthquake Research Committee estimates the probability of being hit by a violent tremor with a seismic intensity of 6 lower or higher within the next 30 years. It is published as a "map" almost every year.



This time, become a high probability of more than 70% in areas where subduction zone of the huge earthquake is a concern,


▽ 80 percent in Nemuro, Hokkaido


71% in ▽ Kushiro


▽ in Mito of Kanto 81 Pasento


▽ in Shizuoka Tokai 70%


▽ 75% in Tokushima City and Kochi City in Shikoku.

Probability increases overall on the Pacific side of Tohoku

In this forecast, the activity of aftershocks following the huge earthquake off the coast of Tohoku 10 years ago is considered for the first time, and the probability is increasing overall on the Pacific side of Tohoku.



Compared to the previous forecast announced in 2018,


▽ Fukushima City increased by 9.3% and 2.2 points


▽ Sendai City

increased by

7.6% and 1.5 points


▽ Morioka City


increased by

6.3% and 1.7 points

.

Kanto is ...

Looking at the Kanto region, where the Greater Tokyo Area is located, as a result of considering underground structure data from boring surveys,


▽ Saitama City increased by 5 points to 60%,


▽ Chiba City decreased by 62% and 23 points


▽ Yokohama City 38 % And 13 points less.



Naoshi Hirata, chairman of the Earthquake Research Committee and a counselor of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, said, "This map also shows that there are no areas in Japan that are not affected by strong shaking. I want you to check the easiness of shaking of the company you are attending and the school you attend, and prepare for it. "