At the risk of appearing to be the side that does not want peace, as Yemen is ravaged by a war entering its seventh year, the Houthi rebels rejected the unilaterally proposed "comprehensive ceasefire" plan on Monday. by the Saudis.

Before any negotiations, they demand that Riyadh, which has led the military coalition at war against them since 2015, first announces "the end of the aggression and the total lifting of the blockade" which is suffocating Yemen.

However, the Saudi neighbor only proposed to partially alleviate this blockade, which complicates the delivery of humanitarian aid to the population, threatened by large-scale famine according to the UN.

According to experts, the hand extended by Saudi Arabia, which has also offered to relaunch political talks between the Yemeni government, backed by Riyadh, and pro-Iranian rebels, is based on a crisis-exit initiative that makes the discussed for over a year.

First under the aegis of the United Nations, then more recently with an increased role for the United States.

These included a UN-supervised ceasefire, accompanied by measures to reopen Sana'a airport and the lifting of trade restrictions in the port of Hodeidah, and followed by inter-Yemeni political talks.

Houthis refuse to comply with Saudi calendar

"The devil is in the details," said Peter Salisbury, an analyst specializing in Yemen at the International Crisis Group, on his Twitter account. The Saudis, the Yemeni government and the Houthis all say they support this initiative, but they kept quibbling over the timing and the details of each issue. "

Except that the latest Saudi proposal contains a variant, in particular on the very sensitive question of the sharing of revenues from the transport of oil and its derivatives to the strategic port of Hodeïda.

However, according to Peter Salisbury, this variant "seems to confirm the idea that it is the Houthis who must make concessions".

An idea that can only displease the rebels, "who accuse the Saudis of using the humanitarian crisis as a lever" and "demand the lifting of all barriers to movement on Hodeïda and Sanaa airport".

The Saudis believe that if their diplomatic initiative fails, they can demonstrate that it is the Houthis and Iran who want the fight to continue, analyzes, on Twitter, Cinzia Bianco, a researcher specializing in the Gulf within the circle reflection European Council on Foreign Relations.

"By proposing the reopening of Sana'a airport and access to the revenues generated by the port of Hodeidah, two long-standing wishes of the Houthis, Riyadh believes it is putting them up against the wall against the United States and the United States. 'UN to show that they do not want peace in Yemen. "

#SaudiArabia is offering the reopening of the #Sanaa Airport and some access to the revenues generated by #Hodeida port.

These are both long-standing #Houthis wishes.

#Riyadh believes it is calling their bluff in front of the #US & #UN to show they don't want peace in #Yemen.

- Dr. Cinzia Bianco (@Cinzia_Bianco) March 22, 2021

The Houthis, for their part, appear to feel that they are in a sufficiently strong position to refuse to comply with the Saudis' timetable and conditions.

Riyadh's outstretched hand comes amid increasing attacks by Shiite rebels against the Saudi kingdom and its oil installations.

In recent weeks, the Houthis have also stepped up their assault on Marib, an oil-rich town and the last stronghold of the Yemeni government in the north of the country.

"Marib is a key issue for us because of the blockade which deprives Yemenis from buying petrol and gas at market prices, with the impoverishment of the population," said Abdelmajid al-Hanash, a Houthi negotiator based in Sanaa, interviewed last week by France 24. As long as this blockade is not lifted to allow the northern regions to have access to these vital products, we will try to have it lifted by force. new and it's legitimate. "

For its part, Saudi Arabia regularly carries out air raids targeting the Houthis to prevent them from advancing and still fears, even if it decides to unilaterally withdraw from the conflict, that the border it shares with Yemen will fall under. the influence of Iran, its regional Shiite enemy which supports its Houthi co-religionists.

The United States, a neutral intermediary?

A scenario also feared by the Biden administration, which wants to put an end to the conflict in Yemen for humanitarian reasons and which announced the end of American support for the military coalition under Saudi command as well as the suspension of certain arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

It also removed the Houthis from the American list of "terrorist organizations", the list on which Donald Trump had them registered just before leaving office.

The decisions angered the Saudis, who believe Iran is using the Houthis to pressure the United States, as Washington tries to revive the 2015 deal on Iran's nuclear program.

While the Americans dispatched an envoy to the region twice in a month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the Houthis to cease their offensive and "join with the Saudis and the government of Yemen in acting constructively in favor of peace ".

Abdelmajid al-Hanash said for his part that American diplomatic gestures were not a game-changer for the Houthis.

"Riyadh and Washington are trying to impose by negotiation what they have not succeeded in obtaining by arms, it is unacceptable", accused the negotiator.

"There is some confusion within the Biden administration. Some officials are calling, on behalf of American interests, for an end to the war in Yemen. To believe that the United States is a neutral and innocent intermediary while Washington is an important actor of the conflict, since it is the main support, and not only logistic, of this war, he added. That is why we remain on our guard and wait to see what they really intend to do to put an end to the aggression which targets us. The negotiations will come after. "

The good news: this means they are negotiating.


The bad news: a lot could go wrong.

An errant air or missile strike could blow the whole process up.

- Peter Salisbury (@peterjsalisbury) March 22, 2021

In the end, "the parties are using all the tools at their disposal to strengthen their position at the negotiating table", explains Peter Salisbury.

And to conclude: "The good news: it means they are negotiating. The bad news: a lot of things can go wrong, an air strike or a missile could blow up the whole process."

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