Every morning, Nicolas Beytout analyzes political news and gives us his opinion.
This Friday, he returns to the new confinement for a third of French people announced this Thursday by Jean Castex.
While Emmanuel Macron wanted to be optimistic and that he was betting on a strategy without confinement, he will have to make his choices in front of the French.
The Prime Minister announced this Thursday evening a third confinement for, roughly, a third of the French.
Despite the attempts of Jean Castex and the Minister of Health Olivier Véran, to demonstrate the excellence of French performance in terms of vaccination, the country will pay dearly for the French mess in the vaccination campaign.
To date, one in two English people is vaccinated, against barely one in 10 French people. We knew that our way out of the health crisis depended on the speed race between the vaccine and the variants.
It is clear, and the Head of State admits it himself, it is the virus that has won, he has become "the master of time".
It could be concluded that re-containment was part of the odds.
If we listen to the doctors, yes, many were asking for a new confinement, and this since the end of January.
But sorry, that was not at all the tone of the message delivered by the head of state and his government.
Since he had made the bet not to lock France up again (unlike Germany or Italy, for example), Emmanuel Macron was doing and saying everything to justify his position.
It was necessary to hold, for a few more difficult weeks, four to six, "an increasingly near horizon", said the government spokesperson.
That was two weeks ago, so there was theoretically a short month left before what the government called "the return to a more normal life".
Well, instead we have the immediate confinement of part of the country.
Because the virus and its English variant suddenly sped up.
This is what Jean Castex says.
It is surely true.
But why then all this optimistic speech held again Wednesday evening by Emmanuel Macron in front of mayors of the Paris region?
Why did you say in public that in the event of re-containment, life would be "impossible"?
Fighting the virus certainly requires adapting your discourse to the rhythm of the appearance of variants.
But not to say things clearly, to let marinate for several days a public opinion under pressure, to which one distils little phrases like: "We will make the decisions that we must take", is to install incomprehension.
Nicolas Beytout does not know if Emmanuel Macron won or lost his bet at the end of last January, we still won more free weeks than those now announced for part of France.
It does not matter whether the Head of State was wrong or not, what is certain is that the French can feel they have been cheated.
Doing everything not to be predictable is to feed disappointment.
And politically, this kind of episode necessarily has a cost.