“Decontamination Money” Asking bureaucrats who know policy decisions March 19, 18:52

After the accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Japan has been working on an unprecedented huge public project "decontamination" in order to remove scattered radioactive materials and restore people's lives.

The decontamination cost, "decontamination money," which started as if we were trying to figure out how much it was necessary and who would bear it, increased to about 5.6 trillion yen.

After verifying this, we conducted interviews with former bureaucrats, who are key persons, after repeated interviews.

What we have come to see is the fact that the costs have increased unexpectedly and continuously, and the possibility that future generations will bear the "decontamination money".

(NHK Special "Thorough Verification" Decontamination Money "" Interview Group Social Affairs Department Reporter Yu Yokoi Takashi Yoshida)

Unprecedented huge public works

Due to the nuclear accident, the radiation dose exceeded a certain standard in 111 municipalities in eight prefectures.

Up to 160,000 people were forced to evacuate in Fukushima Prefecture alone.



Under these circumstances, decontamination was started in order to reduce the radiation dose in the living environment and realize the return of residents in a vast area.

In the 1986 Chernobyl accident, no major decontamination was carried out and residents were forced to relocate.

Decontamination carried out in Japan was a huge public project unlike any other in the world.

Stray over the ministry in charge "Somewhere must take responsibility"

How did decontamination begin?


Hideki Minamikawa, the former administrative vice-minister of the Ministry of the Environment, who is in charge of decontamination at the time of the earthquake, responded to the interview for the first time after he retired eight years ago.



A person from the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, who often serves as the administrative vice-minister, became the administrative vice-minister as a graduate of the Ministry of the Environment, and is known for taking measures against the earthquake that occurred two months after taking office.



Former Vice-Minister Minamikawa testified that the ministry in charge of decontamination was decided.

It is said that the first consultation came about a month after the accident.

Former Vice-Minister Hideki Minamikawa


"I was called by the Deputy Secretary of the Cabinet Secretariat, and there was me and the Vice-Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry. The existing nuclear law cannot handle it. What if some government office is not responsible? If I didn't proceed, I got my homework. "

There is no provision in nuclear law regarding what to do if the environment is polluted by a large amount of radioactive material.

Initially, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, which has jurisdiction over nuclear power administration, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, which has a wealth of experience in large-scale public works projects, were nominated as candidates for the ministry in charge, but all said that they were reluctant.



The bottleneck was the last waste that came out.


In the end, the Ministry of the Environment, which has jurisdiction over waste, had no choice but to do it.

Former Vice-Minister Hideki Minamikawa


"The local people were in trouble. There is radioactive material in the soil of the school. It is not possible to play in the schoolyard. I have received crying petition over and over again. I knew the situation of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which is dealing with the nuclear reactor, so I couldn't even decontaminate it. Someone is responsible. I thought it should be done. The minister was also worried a lot, but once again, when the administrative vice ministers of each ministry gathered, he said, "If necessary, the Ministry of the Environment will act as a coordinator."

The law and the budget started by groping

Immediately, we started to develop a new law for decontamination.

The bill began to be drafted by gathering staff who had learned about radioactive materials in a hurry.



A bill was submitted to the Diet as an act of parliament, and on August 30, the final day of the ordinary Diet session in 2011, the "Act on Special Measures Concerning Radioactive Contamination" was enacted.

Based on this law, the outline of the decontamination business carried out by the government has been set.

Budgetary measures are the most important issue along with legislation.


The Ministry of the Environment has begun to consider the cost of decontamination in the future in parallel with the legislative work.



In this interview, it was found that the Ministry of the Environment had compiled the estimation as of January 2012.

This is a trial calculation of the oldest "decontamination money" that could be confirmed.



At that time, the goal was to complete decontamination by March 2014, except for areas where it was difficult to return, and this estimate would cover the costs required for that, such as the development of interim storage facilities and highly contaminated areas (currently difficult to return). Excluding the cost of countermeasures for the area), it was said to be "1 trillion and several hundred billion yen."



However, this outlook is far off.


Decontamination continues even now, and the total amount of decontamination money has risen to 5,554.6 billion yen by the next fiscal year's budget.

2 places → 16 places Difficulty in handling radioactive materials

An interview with former Vice-Minister Minamikawa also highlighted the difficulty of the decontamination project and the increase in costs due to the handling of radioactive substances.

The Ministry of the Environment initially planned to build two temporary incineration facilities in the area near the nuclear power plant to burn waste contaminated with radioactive materials.

The idea was to keep construction and operating costs as low as possible by consolidating and treating waste.

However, the candidate municipality opposed the acceptance of waste from other areas.



Former Vice-Minister Minamikawa received a voice from the local government saying, "We can do something about our own waste, but don't increase the number of problems even if we accept annoying waste."

The negotiations ran into a snag.



Therefore, the Ministry of the Environment has changed to a policy of proceeding with construction in each municipality around the nuclear power plant.

The temporary incineration facility has a useful life of 15 to 20 years, but promised to shorten the operating period from 2 to 5 years and dismantle it as soon as the treatment is completed.



The number of facilities has increased to 16 locations.

Due in part to the increased amount of waste, the cost of treating contaminated waste has increased to about five times the initial forecast.



I asked former Vice-Minister Minamikawa how he perceived the increase in costs so far.

Former Vice-Minister Minamikawa


"I had to run as I was groping for an unprecedented project that I had no experience in the world. There are many points to reflect on how to do the decontamination project. I think it needs to be recorded and inspected, including costs. "

Decontamination talked about by the "first site manager"

A former executive who was the head of the field dispatched to Fukushima in an emergency also responded to the interview.

Former director Taku Omura, the first director of the Fukushima Environmental Restoration Office, which was newly established in 2012.



It is said that the site was unexpectedly continuous.

Fukushima Environmental Restoration Office (at that time) Former Director Taku Omura


"When I go to the actual site, the residential land is supposed to be a bush mountain, or the owner has evacuated and the field is completely unmaintained. When the grass is bobo, you have to start from the place where you mow the grass. You have to avoid the growing trees and work. I had no choice but to add data. "

Subsequent one-party bidding Structural issues of decontamination

Decontamination work required the ability to gather and manage up to 20,000 workers a day.

It was a major general contractor that had a great influence there.



The general contractor, which has received the order for decontamination work, will first spend a large amount of money to secure accommodation and transportation for thousands of workers.

In order to take advantage of the initial investment, the first contracted general contractor repeatedly tried to receive orders in a specific area, creating a structure that is less likely to cause competition.

When we examined the bid status of decontamination works ordered by the government, the number of bids for which only one company participated was 39 out of 57 works, accounting for 68% of the total.

The ratio of one-party bidding was almost double that of ordinary public works projects.



It is pointed out that expensive contracts are likely to be concluded when the number of businesses participating in bidding is limited and competition does not work.

Regarding this issue, former director Omura said that he could not help in a situation where speed of reconstruction was required.

Fukushima Environmental Rehabilitation Office (at that time) Former Director Taku Omura


"If it is said that the situation was not such that competitive conditions could be secured, that may be the case. There was a restriction that decontamination had to be done in an area where there was nobody out. Of course, if there was enough time, a lot of manpower, and flexible construction, that might have been avoided. However, I wonder what other methods could have been possible. "

Unusual mechanism Decontamination by national debt

The unprecedented huge public works project "decontamination", which has been sought after in the field, has introduced a mechanism that is completely different from ordinary public works projects, even in terms of securing huge costs.



The law stipulates that the Ministry of the Environment pays taxes on decontamination costs and then claims TEPCO for damages.

This is because, in principle, TEPCO, which has polluted the area with radioactive substances, is responsible.



However, the scale of the damage was so great that it was virtually impossible for TEPCO to take responsibility alone.

A complex system was established to support the government for various reasons, such as "smooth decommissioning and compensation", "for a stable supply of electricity", and "fulfilling the responsibility of the country that promoted nuclear power". ..



The mechanism is summarized as follows.

▽ First, the Ministry of the Environment will charge TEPCO for the cost of the decontamination project.


This procedure is called "reimbursement" and is treated in the same way as a claim for damages made by residents who were forced to evacuate due to the nuclear accident.



▽ And TEPCO requests and receives funds from the authorized corporation "Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Support Organization" established by the government.



▽ "Organization" requests this fund from the Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry.



▽ Then, the Ministry of Finance receives the request and borrows from the financial institution.



In other words, the cost of decontamination is covered by the national debt from the financial institution (the interest of the debt is paid by the national tax).



The government has decided that the total amount of support under this system will be up to 13.5 trillion yen, including compensation for residents.

Borrowing is "over 30 years loan" and "gain on sale of shares"

So who, how, and how long will the debt be repaid?


It is inevitable that it will take a considerable amount of time for all repayments to be completed, which is a problem that must be known as a generation that has experienced a nuclear accident.

One of the "decontamination money", the cost of the interim storage facility.

The national government currently has a total of 1.6 trillion yen.



The source of debt repayment is the "power development promotion tax" that people who use electricity pay in addition to the electricity rate. Payment began in 2014, and the current annual repayment amount is 47 billion yen. ing.



A simple calculation would take more than 30 years to complete the repayment.

And decontamination of 4 trillion yen (including pollution waste treatment), which is the largest amount of "decontamination money".



The government says that if the stock of TEPCO acquired for 1 trillion yen in 2012 rises and can be sold for 5 trillion yen in the future, 4 trillion yen of profit will be used for decontamination costs.



On the other hand, the government says, "If there is a shortage, we will consider it."

In other words, if the stock price does not rise according to the target, we will discuss how to cover the huge cost at some point in the future when it is judged that "profit is insufficient".



And it is possible that the shortfall will be borne by the people after the "examination" has taken place.

Become Ichiro for a youth baseball player?

In order to generate a gain on the sale of 4 trillion yen, it is necessary to raise the stock price of TEPCO in the middle of the 300 yen range and sell it for an average of 1500 yen.

Can this plan be realized?



We interviewed six analysts familiar with the power industry.



Analysts pointed out that the difficulty of achieving the goal should be considered on a market capitalization basis rather than a simple stock price comparison of "300 yen to 1500 yen", and both said that it was extremely difficult to achieve. ..



In fact, when converted to market capitalization, which indicates the value of a company, in order to generate a profit on the sale of shares of 4 trillion yen, TEPCO's market capitalization should be increased from the current approximately 600 billion yen to 7.5 trillion yen, which is more than 10 times higher. I have to pull it up.



This is because when a large amount of stocks are sold to the market, a phenomenon called "diluted stocks" occurs, which breaks the balance between supply and demand in the market and makes it easier for stock prices to fall.

In TEPCO's business plan, in order to achieve a market value of 7.5 trillion yen, plans are made such as restarting the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant and establishing joint ventures with other companies in the fields of power transmission and distribution and nuclear power generation. However, there is no prospect of realization in either case.



One analyst likened the difficulty of achieving the goal to "it's like telling a youth baseball player to become a star player with an older salary like Ichiro."



When the stock sale profit mechanism was introduced in 2013, it was led by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

It was said that it was a painstaking measure to reduce the burden on TEPCO and others and not increase tax expenditures.



A former METI executive who knew the discussion at the time confided to us:

Former METI executive


"I think the sale of shares went into a rather unreasonable place. But at that time, I had to put it together in a way that made sense on paper. There was only that in the middle. Beyond that, if you don't think about it, you'll end up with fiction. If you leave it as it is, you'll be deceived. "

Questions about the mechanism of gains on the sale of shares

2016, three years later.


In addition to decontamination, the cost of decommissioning and compensation has increased significantly, and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry has set up the "Tokyo Electric Power Reform 1F Problem Committee" by gathering experts, and in principle, proceeded with private examination.



What kind of discussion was there, we got the minutes of the committee this time.

There were a number of opinions questioning whether the profit on sale of 4 trillion yen could really be generated.

"I think the most difficult thing is to raise corporate value and generate money for decontamination." "It is already difficult to really generate (target) corporate value. How to solve this problem Whether or not



to proceed

remains a fairly important issue. ”

On the other hand, Satoshi Kusakabe, then Secretary of the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, who was at the center of the discussion, emphasized that it would be possible if management reforms proceeded. It was.



"Why don't you organize the idea of ​​(TEPCO's) economic business in the form of" fulfilling your responsibility to Fukushima by winning the world? "" TEPCO itself reformed its management, and in simple terms, innovation. By doing so, it is a scenario that creates new value and at least does not increase the burden on the people. "

As a result of the committee's examination, the mechanism to cover the decontamination cost with the gain on the sale of shares has been maintained and continues to this day.



Was it a decision after sufficient discussion?


To ask that, we asked former Secretary-General Kusakabe, a key person, for coverage.

Former Secretary of the Energy Agency “The Most Important Issue in the History of Energy Policy”

Former Secretary Kusakabe is a big bureaucrat who has been leading Japan's energy policy.



On the day of the interview, when he entered the interview room, he said with a smile, "I had a good opportunity to tell what kind of stance the policymakers took on the most important issue in the history of energy policy."



We repeatedly asked if we had any doubts about how we thought about the feasibility of our goals, but former Secretary Kusakabe replied without hesitation.

Former Secretary Kusakabe


"I think it will be possible to add cost reforms. Furthermore, by restoring the trust of nuclear power, we must pave the way for the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. In addition, various companies and new technologies the to a wide range of cooperation in order to realize. if in this thinking Susumere the reform of the Tokyo Electric Power company, improvement of corporate value required to subsidize the decontamination costs advanced the discussion in the direction that there is a possibility "


" Play In fields such as possible energy, hydrogen, and electricity storage, there is no definite winner in the global market yet. The business environment surrounding TEPCO is a risk, but if you change your perspective, it is also an opportunity. Management innovation that only seizes that opportunity I remember coming to the conclusion that there is a possibility of further improving corporate value by focusing on. "

There was a big gap with the analyst's analysis.



Approximately 50 minutes from the start of the interview.

I hit the problem awareness that was being discussed in the interview team.



"Do you think the 2016 decision can withstand the verification of history?" For a



moment, I felt that former Secretary Kusakabe's complexion had changed.

Former Secretary Kusakabe


"There was a feeling that (the mechanism of gain on sale of shares) could not be realized easily. However, the cost will increase, the situation will change, and the latest information will be gathered at that time. I may not be convinced by this person, but I decided that this policy would lead to a better conclusion. I think the fact that we made a decision for the stability of Fukushima will remain. "

Finally, I asked him what he thinks about the need to discuss the cost of decontamination.

Former Secretary Kusakabe


"At the turning point of 10 years after the accident, we will seriously face this discussion again and evaluate it, and what should be corrected and what should not be corrected, Fukushima's early stability I think it's time to do it from that perspective. I think it's very important. "

In this interview, we interviewed various people such as former bureaucrats, politicians, university professors, analysts, and residents.



There were many points of disagreement, but there were some points in common.

The problem of decontamination is ongoing.

And it needs to be verified and reviewed for the future.



It has been 10 years since the nuclear accident occurred.


The final disposal method and burden of decontamination waste have not been decided, and the final form of "decontamination money" cannot be seen.



There are too many challenges left.



NHK Special "Thorough Verification" Decontamination Money "" will be rebroadcast from 2:37 am (midnight on 22nd) on March 23 (Tuesday).

Reporter of the Social Affairs Department


Yu Yokoi


Joined the


Bureau in

2007

After working at the Nagano Bureau

, covered the judiciary and the Diet in the


Social Affairs Department from 2012.


Reporter of the Social Affairs Department


Takashi Yoshida Joined the

station in


2011


After working at the Nagoya Bureau

, he


was in charge of interviews with the Ministry of the Environment from 2019.