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The third wave can no longer be discussed away.

The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) reported 13,435 new infections on Wednesday morning, around 4,000 more than a week ago.

The nationwide incidence has risen to 86.2 registered infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the past seven days - four weeks ago it was 57. The R value has been continuously above 1 since the beginning of March, so one sick person is infected with more than one other person on average at.

In all federal states, more people are infected again than in February.

The gloomy predictions about the effect of the mutant B.1.1.7, which many lockdown-weary citizens were skeptical about just a few weeks ago, are therefore coming true.

As early as February, the intensive care physicians warned of the impending increase due to the mutation.

The 7-day incidence has recently stagnated or increased only slightly in many federal states.

During this time, the British mutant made up around 50 percent of new infections.

According to the Berlin virologist Christian Drosten, it now dominates with three quarters of all infections.

The effect: In a weekly comparison, the total incidence jumped 21 percent according to the RKI situation report on Tuesday.

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At the same time, mutants and vaccinations change the known infection patterns.

While old people's and nursing homes were previously considered hotspots, now more and more daycare centers are.

According to the RKI, the only group that is still falling is those over 85 years of age, many of whom are now fully vaccinated.

In all other age groups, the number of new infections is increasing again.

The highest incidence is currently in the 15- to 44-year-olds, but the numbers are rising most among the 0 to 14-year-olds.

While the youngest have so far played a subordinate role in the statistics, the 7-day incidence has doubled in the 0 to 14-year-olds in the last four weeks.

"Currently, the role of children and adolescents seems to be changing in the spread of SARS-CoV-2," writes the RKI.

Outbreaks in daycare centers are increasing very quickly and, despite the limited emergency operation that was still in effect in many federal states at the survey point, are long above the values ​​at the end of the year when the facilities were still fully open.

"A similar development is indicated with a time lag (due to the recent opening) for schools", warns the RKI, which attributes the development to the spread of more easily transferable, worrying variants, in particular B.1.1.7.

Source: WORLD infographic

On Friday evening, the RKI published a depressing forecast, such as B.1.1.7.

could determine the infection rate in Germany in the next few weeks.

Accordingly, a third wave "hidden" for weeks is now gaining the upper hand.

Since the beginning of the year, the weekly B.1.1.7 case numbers have grown very evenly, they have doubled every twelve days, according to the report.

Intensive care medics are waiting in February

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This exponentially increasing trend was only overlaid for weeks by declining numbers for the other virus variants.

A significantly steeper increase in the number of infections can be expected from now on.

Fall numbers are to be expected at Easter above the level of Christmas.

So far, the RKI has been right with its forecast.

The German Interdisciplinary Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (DIVI) had designed such a scenario much earlier.

Since February 25th, it has been publishing a forecast model that urgently warns against premature relaxation of the pandemic measures.

In view of the sluggish vaccination start and the increasing spread of B.1.1.7, there is again a threat of "peak loads of around 4,000 Covid-19 patients in intensive care units," it says.

This forecast, which is three weeks old today, has also come true so far: In the meantime, the downward trend in the occupancy of intensive care units by corona patients has stopped, and the numbers have been rising again for a few days.

For a long time the population had been skeptical about such predictions, as many warnings in the past had proven to be unfounded.

A year ago, at the beginning of the pandemic, it was said that Covid-19 did not know seasonality like the flu.

Then spring came and the great wave of infections did not materialize.

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Next, warnings were given about summer vacationers who would fuel the virus occurrence.

The increase in new infections remained manageable.

At the end of summer, warnings were given about the second wave in autumn.

This wave came, and violently, but months later than expected.

Then it was said that winter tobogganers and Christmas visitors would drive the second wave immeasurably - but the hard lockdown had an effect.

Fewer and fewer people became infected.

When the first reports of the dangers posed by the more contagious mutant B1.1.7.

made the rounds in Great Britain at the end of the year, so many waved them off.

It was time to wait.

After all, they'll be vaccinated now, and spring will come soon.

The policy behaved in a similar way, fueling hope at the last federal-state summit with a step-by-step plan for gradual loosening of the lockdown.

But the vaccinations and spring are coming too late, it seems, to prevent a third wave.

Incidence of 200 in April?

In its current forecast from Monday, DIVI expects an incidence of 100 nationwide at the end of March and a value of 200 at the beginning of April to mid-April. Only when hard lockdown measures take effect again from 100 will the intensive care units be subjected to renewed stress as at the beginning of January avoidable, warn the medical professionals.

At that time, there were over 5700 corona patients in intensive care units in Germany.

If tougher measures only take effect from an incidence of 200, this maximum capacity can be expected again in spite of the vaccinations in the spring.

Since B.1.1.7 cannot be dealt with only with lockdown measures, only rapid vaccination against Covid-19 can avert a "critical burden".

In the simulation, in the worst-case vaccination scenario with a late tightening of the current lockdown measures (from an incidence of 200 or more), the peak in intensive care bed occupancy will not be reached until May 1, and around 5,000 critically ill patients are then to be expected.

In the best possible vaccination scenario and with tougher lockdown measures from an incidence of 100, the high could already be reached at the beginning of April with 3,000 intensive care beds occupied.

Drosten

And what does Christian Drosten predict for the next few weeks?

"Shortly after Easter we will have a situation like around Christmas," he said in his NDR podcast episode published on Tuesday.

The situation will become "drastically more difficult" because of the mutant.

Drosten fears that it will be particularly “tricky” for the largely still unvaccinated age groups aged 50 and over, who have a higher risk of developing severe disease.

Because there is also this bad news: B.1.1.7 is now not only considered transferable, but also dangerous.

New studies provided further evidence that the variant is more deadly, warned Drosten.

Even if more and more risk groups are vaccinated, the health system is likely to face another stress test.