(Economic Observation) Will housing prices in first-tier cities "lead the rise" at the beginning of the year will usher in new regulation?

  China News Agency, Beijing, March 15 (Reporter Pang Wuji) After a few years, four first-tier cities in China, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, once again experienced rising housing prices and “leading increases” in housing prices.

  According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on the 15th, in February, the prices of new and second-hand houses in first-tier cities increased faster than those in other tier cities.

Especially in the second-hand housing market, second-hand housing prices in first-tier cities rose by 1.1% month-on-month, which was significantly higher than that in second-tier cities (0.4%) and third-tier cities (0.2%).

The prices of second-hand houses in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen increased by 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.0% and 0.9% respectively, taking the top four month-on-month increases in second-hand house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities.

  This trend has already appeared in January, with the increase in housing prices in first-tier cities ranking first among all tier cities.

  Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst at the Shell Research Institute, pointed out that in February, first-tier cities were still the main driving factor for the rise in housing prices across the country. Second-tier and third-tier cities saw a decrease in the month-on-month increase in housing prices, indicating that the core cities have strong market momentum.

  Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Provincial Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that first-tier cities have become the leader in housing price increases, which seems to be similar to the previous round (2015-2018) of the property market.

At that time, the housing prices in the first-tier cities appeared to be led by Shenzhen, and then the housing prices in Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou continued to rise, which evolved into a wave of general housing prices.

  This time, will house prices in China's big cities repeat this cycle?

  Xu Xiaole pointed out that in February, 56 cities out of 70 cities saw a month-on-month increase in the price of new houses, 3 more than the previous month, and the number of cities where the price of second-hand houses increased from the previous month by 5 more than the previous month.

This shows that the impact of the early loose monetary environment on real estate still exists. At the same time, under the influence of the promotion of "New Year's in situ" in many places, real estate transactions in first- and second-tier cities have led to price increases.

  However, due to special factors such as the Spring Festival holiday and the ultra-low base in the same period last year in February, data such as housing prices may appear to be "distorted."

Zhao Yiqi, an assistant researcher at the E-House Research Institute, said that there may be changes at the beginning of the year, leading to an increase in housing prices in some cities in February.

  Recently, many places have tightened their mortgage policies.

For example, many banks in Shenzhen stated that they use the official reference price of second-hand housing as an important basis for bank mortgage loans.

Shanghai, Beijing and other places have expressed strict inspections of consumer loans and business loans flowing into the real estate market in violation of regulations.

According to media reports, cases of early withdrawal of credit funds flowing to the property market in violation of regulations have emerged.

Experts believe that with the implementation of a series of regulation and control policies, the housing market in first-tier cities will decline.

  In fact, the growth of second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen and Guangzhou slowed down in February.

The month-on-month increase in second-hand housing prices in Shenzhen narrowed from 1.7% in January to 0.9% in February, and in Guangzhou from 1.4% in January to 1% in February.

Zhao Yiqi said that the growth rate of second-hand housing in the two major cities has narrowed, indicating that the previous regulatory policies have been effective.

  Since March, the property market in first-tier cities is expected to be steady and declining for two consecutive weeks.

The Shell Research Institute released on the 15th the market conditions in the second-tier cities on the second Monday of March, showing that the regulatory effects of the first-tier cities continue to be released, the property market is expected to remain stable, and the transaction volume is slightly adjusted.

Among them, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Shenzhen hovered at a low level, while the transaction volume in Beijing and Shanghai declined slightly.

  Xu Xiaole believes that since March, the prosperity index of second-hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai, etc., has recovered from a high level, and it is expected that the increase in housing prices in first-tier cities may shrink in March.

He believes that the follow-up property market enthusiasm may be passed on to second-tier cities.

In February, the prosperity of second-tier cities such as Xi'an, Hefei, and Chengdu increased, and market expectations increased. Superimposed on the seasonal release of March rigid demand and school district demand, it may drive the market in some second-tier cities to heat up.

  This year's "Government Work Report" reiterated the positioning of "no real estate speculation", emphasized "stabilizing land prices, stabilizing housing prices, and stabilizing expectations", and specifically mentioned the need to "solve outstanding housing problems in big cities."

Industry insiders predict that if the property market in hot cities continues to heat up, it may face a new round of regulation and overweight.

At the same time, supply-side measures such as increasing the supply of land and rental housing will help ease the contradiction between supply and demand in the medium and long term.

(Finish)