Covid-19: the other threat to the economy, the fall in the birth rate caused by the pandemic
Audio 03:58
Because of the pandemic, China has recorded a drop in births of 12% compared to last year, or 1,800,000 fewer babies.
(Photo illustration) Photo by VCG / VCG via Getty Images
By: Dominique Baillard Follow
9 mins
Publicity
A year ago to the day the WHO declared the state of pandemic.
This major health crisis continues to have multiple implications in our lives.
For example, it lowers the birth rate in the countries most affected by the coronavirus.
Fewer babies today is a concern for the economy the day after tomorrow.
The announcement of the state of the pandemic caused a mini-stock market crash.
There is a birth rate crash that we are observing, but it is only nine months after the official start of the pandemic that we began to take the dimension.
In Italy, one of the European countries most affected by Covid-19, in December 2020, the number of births fell by more than 20% compared to the previous year.
The decline was of the same order for the month of January.
Spain, another severely affected country, posted an even greater dropout, -23% for December.
In France it is -13%.
In Hawaii, the baby crash is staggering with 30% fewer births.
The phenomenon is also noticeable in China: 1,800,000 babies less than the previous year, ie a drop in births of 12%.
The confinement did not boost the birth rate, contrary to the speculations of pseudo-experts
We all like to tell each other that thunderstorms or power outages cause baby booms.
That's a beautiful story.
But it is wrong.
An urban legend, which does not work for power cuts or for confinement.
Anxiety about the future, economic and health, discouraged children's projects.
The Spanish flu in 1918 or the financial crisis of 2008 had similar effects, but in the case of Covid-19, no one expected such an impact.
Unemployment plays a decisive role in this drop in the birth rate
"
One point more unemployment is one point less for the birth rate
" observed two American economists who combined demographic data and those of the labor market.
It is therefore a major factor in a crisis situation.
In the United States, we do not yet have final figures on the population, these researchers expect a drastic drop in births.
The fact that women's jobs in personal services and catering were the most affected by the confinement measures worsened the economic insecurity of the women who preferred to postpone their maternity plan.
Some also had to give up their work to take care of their children or relatives.
Do we already have an idea of the consequences of this drop in the birth rate?
We do not yet know what will be the extent and the exact duration of this "baby bust", it is part of a general movement of decline in fertility in the West.
The only certainty is that the consequences will be irreversible.
According to HSBC bank, the number of missing babies could have a far greater economic impact than the number of deaths caused by Covid-19.
The manufacturers of infant milk or diapers were the first to feel the negative effects.
They are already reorienting their production.
At the macroeconomic level, there will of course be long-term repercussions, more or less painful.
On the labor market, on pension systems, on immigration.
And also on the evolution of interest rates.
Decreased fertility plays a key role in their decline.
The correlation has been spotted in both the United States and Japan.
All those who fear today a sudden rise in rates, and therefore the price of silver, should look at the pink notebooks to get an idea of the future.
► In short
The controversy over vaccine retention swells between London and Brussels
Europe accused of blocking exports yesterday published figures that speak for its defense: since February 1, 2021, at least 34 million doses have been exported outside the Union, including 9 million to the United Kingdom.
A country which, on the other hand, keeps all its production to cover its needs, accuses Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, which Boris Johnson denies.
To boost tourism, Australia offers half-price plane tickets
This offer is subsidized by the government and is reserved for nationals, from April.
The mainland country remains closed to foreigners, at least until June.
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Coronavirus
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