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In December 2019, the World Aviation Organization IATA announced its forecast for 2020: The number of passengers will rise by four percent to 4.72 billion worldwide, and the industry will make a global profit of 29.3 billion US dollars.

But then Corona came and everything turned out differently.

2020 was not the most successful year for aviation, but the blackest year since the invention of the aircraft.

Worldwide, the number of passengers dropped dramatically in 2020 compared to 2019 - by 60 percent to 1.8 billion.

The last time there were so few passengers were in 2003, reports the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).

The decline was strongest on international routes at 74 percent, while domestic connections shrank globally by “only” 50 percent.

The airlines alone flew in a loss of 370 billion dollars last year, plus another 115 billion in losses from airports around the world.

Atlanta replaced as the largest airport in the world

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Europe was particularly hard hit: According to the Airport Industry Connectivity Report 2020, over 6,000 connections were canceled, half of all flight routes.

The big losers include Madrid and Rome Fiumicino airports, which lost 71 and 70 percent of their direct connections, respectively.

The two largest German airports, Munich (minus 68 percent) and Frankfurt (minus 67 percent) did not do much better.

Previously hardly noticed, aircraft are now much more noticeable in the sky

Source: Getty Images / JethuynhCan

In Germany, the drop in passenger numbers in 2020 was even stronger in percentage terms than the global average.

In this country, the number of passengers fell by 75 percent to 62.9 million, reports the Association of German Airports.

So few passengers were last registered in 1986.

In domestic German traffic, the drop was minus 74.7 percent, European traffic fell by 74.0 percent, and air travel to long-distance destinations fell by 77.1 percent.

Due to the global drop in passenger numbers, there was also a massive upheaval in the ranking of the largest airports worldwide, measured by the number of passengers (see table).

Atlanta, by far number one in 2019 with 110.5 million passengers, had only 42.9 million in 2020 (which was still enough for second place).

The new global record holder is now Guangzhou, China, with 43.7 million passengers.

Source: WORLD infographic

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In 2020, a total of five Chinese airports made it into the top ten.

The reason: In 2020, Chinese domestic tourism recovered rapidly.

The aviation analyst CAPA Center for Aviation determined that there were almost as many domestic flights in China as in the previous year, namely 93 percent.

Many Europeans are planning a flight as early as 2021

And when is the number of guests in the airline industry going up again outside of China?

Expert opinions differ.

Eurocontrol, the European Organization for the Safety of Aviation, expects a longer dry spell in Europe: The most optimistic forecast (which assumes an early availability and effectiveness of a Covid-19 vaccine) does not expect air traffic to return to the level of 2019 until 2024 at the earliest before the pandemic.

In the worst case, the recovery could even last until 2029, says Eurocontrol Director General Eamonn Brennan.

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The IATA also calculates in years: the number of passengers will return to the level of 2019 at the earliest in 2024, believes the organization, which represents 290 airlines worldwide.

A recovery in the aviation industry will at least not fail because of the Europeans.

According to a survey by the European Travel Commission (ETC) from December 2020 / January 2021, more than half (53.5 percent) of those surveyed want to get back on the plane in the next six months.

And at least 12.7 percent of Europeans are planning a long-haul trip by the summer of 2021, according to the ETC.

Which in turn promises a boost for the airlines, because very few long-distance trips are likely to be made by sailboat or ocean liner.

The aviation crisis is an opportunity for the railways

For many pilots and flight attendants, job prospects have become massively worse since the pandemic.

But the aviation crisis is an opportunity for Deutsche Bahn.

She is desperately looking for employees.

Former flight attendants have already retrained.

Source: WELT / Lea Freist