The British variant of the coronavirus today represents nearly 65% ​​of the cases detected in our country, according to data published Monday evening by Public Health France.

On the other hand, the evolution of the Brazilian and South African variants is slow and rather reassuring, according to specialists in this epidemic. 

DECRYPTION

For the first time, Public Health France has unveiled the precise figures of the circulation of the different variants of SARS-CoV-2, department by department.

First observation: the British variant is largely the majority in the country, with nearly 65% ​​of new cases in France.

A figure known thanks to the sequencing efforts carried out for several months in France.

We actually establish the genetic identity card of the virus, which makes it possible to identify the strains that take over.

The three departments most affected by the British variant are Corse-du-Sud (85.1%), Aube (84.5%) and Alpes-Maritimes (81.2%).

It was foreseeable that this variant would become the majority because epidemiologists estimate that it is between 30 and 70% more contagious than the old strain.

But as the various vaccines remain effective against this strain, the vaccination campaign should result in the coming months both in a decrease in hospitalizations and in a decrease in the number of deaths.

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Low circulation of South African and Brazilian variants 

With the data from Public Health France on the variants, we also know more about the South African and Brazilian variants.

These two strains are the ones that worry the authorities the most.

"The vaccines are probably a little less effective, for some of them, compared to the South African and Brazilian variants", underlines Yannick Simonin, virologist at Inserm and at the University of Montpellier.

They currently represent 5% of new cases in France, against 4.3% a fortnight ago.

"The good news is that obviously the South African and Brazilian variants remain under control in France, insofar as we have not noticed an exponential increase in the number of contaminations", assures Yannick Simonin.

"It would appear, so far, that they are less contagious under current conditions."

As these variants are less contagious, they should therefore not interfere with the vaccination campaign.

But we must remain cautious and follow their development very closely in the coming weeks.

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In unknown variants in some departments ... which are not of concern at the moment

In Paris and in the Hautes-Pyrénées, more than 20% of positive tests are unknown variants.

But this is probably a cocktail of lots of variants and we are not at all sure that there is one that takes the top.

And even if it were to be, it wouldn't necessarily be bad news.

In a very optimistic scenario, one can quite imagine a more contagious variant which becomes the majority but much less virulent.

This variant would then become a simple cold.

However, this scenario has already been observed in the past in other epidemics.