Prime Minister Jean Castex is due to speak on Thursday evening and is expected to announce new measures for the 20 French departments particularly affected by the Covid-19 epidemic.

But the decisions are not yet clear, between local reluctance and risk of social explosion in the event of re-containment. 

DECRYPTION

The case of Paris, where, unlike Pas-de-Calais, the hypothesis of reconfinement at the weekend was finally ruled out due to the lack of political consensus, perfectly illustrates the complexity of the government's strategy.

While Jean Castex must announce new measures on Thursday evening for 20 French departments particularly affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, everything is not yet fixed and the task of the executive turns into a puzzle. 

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Pas-de-Calais and Seine-Saint-Denis are of particular concern

First, which departments are we talking about?

Pas-de-Calais therefore, and Seine-Saint-Denis, two departments where the incidence rate exceeds 400 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, are of particular concern.

This is much more than the maximum alert threshold, set at 250 by the health authorities.

There are also the other seven departments of Île-de-France are also in the red zone.

Val-de-Marne and Val d'Oise have even seen a 20% increase in the number of cases over the last seven days.

In this map of France of the epidemic, there are also the departments which were not yet placed under surveillance but which are recording a rebound in the circulation of the virus.

This is particularly the case of Corrèze, Aube or Hautes-Alpes, a territory that has fallen into the red zone with 280 new cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

Finally, the Alpes-Maritimes remain the most affected department with an incidence rate of 563. But in recent days, it is an encouraging sign, the number of contaminations has dropped slightly.

The reluctance of mayors and the risk of social explosion

Faced with these disparities, the prefects therefore conduct local consultations ... while trying to maintain a semblance of consistency from one territory to another.

A balancing act, with a range of measures available: closure of shopping centers of more than 5,000m², prohibition of access to river banks, limitation of events or even reinforced sending of vaccines.

Several prefects confide in Europe 1 how difficult the task is, because in some popular departments, in the event of local reconfinement on weekends, the real risk does not seem to them so much to be the virus as the social explosion.

In other territories, the prefects face resistance from the mayors, who do not want the government to impose any measure whatsoever.

According to our latest information, only the Pas-de-Calais department is currently affected by a re-containment. 

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Is the complexity of the task, which should allow Emmanuel Macron not to lose his bet of national non-reconfinement, worth it?

"We waste time, we play on words with this non-containment," said an adviser to the executive interviewed by Europe 1. "And in the end we really risk losing this bet."