On the seafront, in Calais.

(illustration) -

DENIS CHARLET / AFP

  • The government wants to do it on a case-by-case basis depending on the health situations in each region, but the decision concerning the Pas-de-Calais, re-defined at the weekend, seems at first glance difficult to read.

  • Because Seine-Saint-Denis, which has an equal incidence rate, and Marseille, with the higher incidence rate, will not be entitled to it.

  • For some the situations are not necessarily comparable, but if the decisions end up appearing inconsistent they may be less well accepted.

Health measures on a case-by-case basis, depending on the health situation of each region, a priori, it is rather a consensus guideline.

Perhaps less if government decisions are seen as inconsistent.

The question to be asked this Thursday evening: the Prime Minister, Jean Castex officially announced the containment on the weekend of Pas-de-Calais, on the model already known by the neighboring area of ​​Dunkirk (North) and the area, a a little further away, from Nice (Alpes-Maritimes).

Except that to date, other departments are approaching or even exceeding the incidence rate of Pas-de-Calais.

This is the case of Bouches-du-Rhône (Marseille) and Seine-Saint-Denis, in the near Parisian suburbs.

The measure may seem completely incoherent, and that's what Mickaël Rochoy thinks, who has the impression that decisions are taken "by a headless duck".

The epidemiologist from the collective “On the side of science”, interviewed by

20 Minutes

thinks that the government too often announces measures without defining any coherence or objective: “It's like with the curfew at 8 pm or at 18 hours.

We are told that the whole world envies us, and that it works very well.

But according to what criteria since we have not defined an objective?

The curfew is still not intended to be perpetual.

If it is effective, then it must be lifted.

We welcome results by doing post-rationalization.

"

Situations not so comparable

For others, at the same or higher incidence rate, we cannot exactly compare departments with a very high population density, such as Seine-Saint-Denis and Bouches-du-Rhône, to Pas-de-Calais. and in the Alpes-Maritimes, a little less dense.

"In dense departments, with more precarious basic social situations, the circulation of the virus is inherent in the proximity of populations, as we know," explains epidemiologist Martin Blachier at

20 Minutes

.

And contaminations are a priori more linked to people having to travel to go to work.

In the cases of Nice and Dunkirk, the resumption of the epidemic is mainly due to behavioral issues: because of the carnivals in the north, or to go to restaurants in Italy and Monaco for the south-east.

"

Confinement on weekends can then appear as a legitimate and effective solution.

Michaël Rochoy who, it should be noted, works in Pas-de-Calais, recognizes that all the measures, even partial, have anyway effects on the epidemic.

“But there is nothing to prove to us that the virus circulates more on weekends or in the evening.

It could !

For example, we know that malaria is transmitted by a mosquito that lives mainly at night.

But we are not at all in the same situation.

Here, we seem to focus on intra-family transmissions of the virus.

It is important but limited.

If it still circulates as much, it is because too little is done for extra-familial contaminations.

An expected justification

If, as we have understood, Martin Blachier is not shocked by what could be seen as a "double standard" he is still "curious to see how the government will justify it".

This is one of the problems of the government, already confronted with the lack of clarity of its decisions in health matters.

“It is the problem of the thresholds, judge Michaël Rochoy.

We have an alert threshold of 50 contaminations per 100,000 inhabitants, a reinforced alert threshold of 150 and a maximum alert threshold of 250. Except that no measure corresponds to each threshold, we do nothing!

"

In other countries, such as Italy, each alert threshold corresponds to specific health measures.

This is not the case in France, where everything is decided a bit with elected officials, many in health defense council, therefore behind closed doors.

So every week or almost its controversy.

In this case, the risk is that the case of Paris appears to be preferential treatment.

More generally, that the decisions of the government end up appearing arbitrary… and therefore less well followed.

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  • Health

  • Curfew

  • Covid 19

  • Confinement

  • Coronavirus