What can we expect from a situation “in four to six weeks”?

Emmanuel Macron announced a period of four to six weeks before a possible reduction in the measures.

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Benoit Tessier / AP / SIPA

• Asked about a possible reorganization of the curfew, Emmanuel Macron asked for a delay of four to six weeks before a possible reduction in the measures.

• A period that brings us to mid-April, while France remains for the moment on a very high plateau.

• Can we really hope for a better epidemic situation then?

Monday, during an exchange with young people in a training center for industrial trades in Stains (Seine Saint-Denis), Emmanuel Macron was arrested by a young man who asked him to postpone the curfew to 7 pm "because that it's hard ”.

At this, the Head of State smiled and asked him to "hold out for a few more weeks", before giving an even more precise figure: "four to six weeks".

If we take the largest estimate, six weeks, an appointment is therefore made for Monday, April 12.

In the meantime, what may have changed that could justify easing measures against the coronavirus, or even lifting the curfew?

The President of the Republic was very vague on the subject, giving no details on the reasons for this delay, which motivated his hope or even the objectives to be achieved for a reduction in the measures.

But by mid-April, a few factors of change may indeed occur.

Strengthen to better lighten

First factor… New measures.

Tighten the screw harder to be able to loosen it more quickly, in short.

“If we are to believe the forecast models, we expect a peak in contamination due to the variants within two to three weeks.

We can strengthen physical distancing measures now, in order to limit this peak ", pleads Franck Clarot, doctor of the collective" On the side of Science ".

For him, more effective measures now would finally lead to a drop in cases, and therefore a possible reduction.

Not necessarily national containment, "but at least in regions likely to experience an epidemic outbreak, such as Ile de France for example".

Asked about France 2 on Monday, the Minister of Health Olivier Véran indicated that during the four to six weeks indicated by Emmanuel Macron, the curfew and the current measures "will be a minimum", and that he hoped "not to go beyond that across the country ”.

Vaccination, effective from mid-April?

But can we hope for an improvement in the situation without new measures?

Two elements could contribute to this.

First, the vaccination.

The example of Israel shows that vaccination works in a real population and leads to drops in the curves of the virus, be it cases, hospitalizations, resuscitations and deaths.

In the case of France, while 80% of nursing home residents have received at least a first dose, mortality in these residences has fallen by nearly 50% in three weeks.

"It is certain that vaccination works", enthuses Michaël Rochoy, researcher in epidemiology.

But, "in six weeks, the number of new French people vaccinated seems too low to reverse the trend at this point."

Nine million doses of Pfizer are expected in March, then 19.3 million doses in April.

1.5 million doses of Moderna are expected in March, then 3.2 million doses in April.

6.4 million doses of AstraZeneca are expected in France in March, and 9.6 million doses in April.

2.7 million delivered doses of the Jansen vaccine are expected in April.

If we add up all its doses, the country could be able to vaccinate 17.8 million people by the end of April (retaining a wastage rate of 5%), or around all of the so-called “fragile” people in France. .

Safe ?

The saturation of hospitals, a constant problem

Several points tarnish this record.

First, there is a delay of several weeks between the first and the second dose.

However, there will be fewer doses in March than in April, so less first-time injected and eventually vaccinated with two doses by the end of April.

Second, it is estimated that it takes several days after the second dose is received before full protection is achieved.

Third and above all, this is the number of potential vaccinated by the end of April, but Emmanuel Macron speaks of the end of March to mid-April as a calendar.

By then, probably the majority of older people (over 75) will have received both doses of the vaccine.

A news which should naturally lower the number of deaths, but “it is not this population which clogs the hospitals.

It is more about people between 50 and 65 years old, who will not all be vaccinated by mid-April ”, deplores Michaël Rochoy.

In other words, the saturation of hospitals, the very one that led to the first and second confinement, will probably still be relevant.

Especially since "more contamination necessarily means more hospitalizations", supports Franck Clarot.

“When the virus explodes, it increases exponentially, where vaccination does not yet… It will therefore be difficult to catch up with the number of people infected by vaccination.

"And then even with all vulnerable people vaccinated," the virus also affects young people and people without co-morbidity or fragility, "recalls the doctor.

The hope of spring

Last point, the good weather to come.

But here too, you have to know how to keep reason.

“Of course, with the return of heat, there is a decrease in certain risky behaviors: there is better ventilation, more gatherings outside and less indoors, windows more often open,” notes Franck Clarot.

However, if links are starting to be studied between temperature and direct impact on the coronavirus, there is nothing officially established, nor very referenced on the subject.

And Michaël Rochoy immediately warns: "It is wrong to think that the coronavirus will disappear with the return of sunny days".

Proof of this is its violence in California, Florida, Italy, Brazil, etc.

or simply the first wave in France, mainly in March and April.

So yes, the summer of 2020 was relatively calm in France.

But more than the heat, "it must be remembered that we were coming out of a very heavy and strict confinement, with a very low circulation of the virus, that there were long school holidays, a lot of partial unemployment or vacation among the employees ”, recontextualizes the researcher.

Criteria that will not be implemented in mid-April.

It remains then, as Olivier Véran said on Monday, to "keep your fingers crossed".

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