It has been seven weeks, 26 days after the state of emergency was declared.
When NHK calculated the "effective reproduction number", which is one of the indicators of the infection status and indicates how many people the infection spreads from one infected person, by a simple method, in the 10 prefectures where the state of emergency is declared. In both cases, the number of infected people is decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down, especially in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
Experts say, "The metropolitan area hasn't improved as much as we expected, and we need to take more measures than ever before."
Under the supervision of the director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Motoi Suzuki Epidemiology Center, NHK calculates the number of effective reproductions by a simple method based on the data up to the 25th for the 10 prefectures where the state of emergency has been declared. Did.
The effective reproduction number indicates how many people are infected from one infected person, and it is said that the infection spreads when it exceeds "1", and converges when it falls below "1".
In order to get it more accurately, it is necessary to consider more conditions such as estimating the onset date and calculating it, but since it takes time, it is based on the number of infected people for each day confirmed as a guideline value. It is calculated by a simple method.
* In the future, the data on the number of effective reproductions released by public institutions may differ as a result.
Tokyo
The number of effective reproductions in Tokyo was 1.28 as of the 7th of last month (January)
and 1.22 as of the 14th of last month, which exceeded "1", but
▼ 21st of last month. At that point it was 0.94, below "1".
After that,
▼ 0.73 as of 28th of last month
,
▼
0.75 as of 4th of this month (February),
▼ 0.78 as of 11th of
this month,
▼
0.82 as of 18th of this month,
▼ 0.84 as of 25th of
this month.
Although unchanged, the rate of infection reduction has been declining gradually since the beginning of this month.
Kanagawa Prefecture
In Kanagawa prefecture, it
increased once after the state of emergency was declared
,
▼
1.11 as of the 7th of
last month and 1.45 as of the 14th of last month.
After that,
▼ 0.97 as of 21st of last month
,
▼
0.68 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.71 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼
0.71 as of
11th of
this month,
▼
0.74 as of 18th of this month,
▼ 0.95 as of 25th of
this month
However, the rate of decrease in infection tends to slow down.
Saitama
In Saitama Prefecture
▼ 1.10 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.25 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
1.05 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.73 as of 28th of last month
,
▼
0.89 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.80 as of 11th of this month,
▼ 0.83 as of the 18th of this month,
▼ 0.81 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Chiba
In Chiba prefecture
▼ 1.22 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.42 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
1.04 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.82 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.78 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.74 as of 11th of this month ,
▼ 0.85 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.98 as of the 25th, which is below "1", but the rate of decrease in infection tends to slow down.
1 metropolitan area 3 prefectures
In addition,
▼ 1.21 as of 7th of
last month,
▼
1.30 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.98 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.73 as of 28th of last month
,
▼
0.77 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ this month As of the 11th, it was 0.76,
▼ as of the 18th of this month, it was 0.81, and as of the
25th, it was 0.88, and the rate of infection reduction continues to slow down.
Aichi prefecture
Aichi Prefecture was
▼ 1.05 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.13 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.91 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.85 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.66 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 11th of this month As of 0.81,
▼ 0.78 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.77 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Gifu Prefecture
Gifu Prefecture is
▼ 1.17 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.01 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.91 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.79 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.73 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.90 as of 11th of this month ,
▼ 0.75 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.67 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Osaka
Osaka Prefecture was
▼ 1.26 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.31 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.96 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.82 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.72 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 11th of this month As of 0.70,
▼ 0.76 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.83 as of the 25th, which is below "1", but the rate of infection reduction tends to slow down.
Kyoto
Kyoto Prefecture is
▼ 1.02 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.22 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.99 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.90 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.66 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.55 as of 11th of this month ,
▼ 0.74 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.65 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Hyogo prefecture
Hyogo prefecture is
▼ 0.97 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.33 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.98 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.84 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.70 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.68 as of 11th of this month ,
▼ 0.76 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.68 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Kansai 2 prefectures 1 prefecture
In 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture in Kansai
,
▼
1.12 as of 7th of
last month,
▼
1.30 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
0.97 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.84 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.70 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 11 of this month It is 0.67 as of the
date, 0.76 as of the 18th of this month,
and 0.77 as of the 25th.
Fukuoka Prefecture
Fukuoka Prefecture is
▼ 1.18 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.28 as of 14th of
last month,
▼
1.02 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.75 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 0.70 as of 4th of
this month
,
▼ 0.82 as of 11th of this month ,
▼ 0.83 as of the 18th of this month
,
▼
0.71 as of the 25th, which is below "1".
Whole country
In addition,
▼ 1.18 as of 7th of
last month
,
▼ 1.27 as of 14th of last month, which was higher than "1"
,
▼
0.96 as of 21st of
last month,
▼
0.77 as of 28th of last month,
▼ 4th of this month As of 0.74,
▼ 0.75 as of 11th of
this month,
▼
0.80 as of 18th of this month,
▼ 0.85 as of 25th, which is below "1".
Expert "More measures are needed to cancel 1 metropolitan area and 3 prefectures"
Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "Although the rate of decrease is slowing down, the number of infected people has been steadily decreasing nationwide, and the effects of your efforts and countermeasures. I feel that I managed to suppress the infection situation so far. However, the population of 1 metropolitan area and 3 prefectures has not improved as much as I expected, and it is necessary to take more measures to release it. I would like you to stay alert and act cautiously so that the infection does not spread again, such as by refraining from having dinner with a large number of people for a while. "
In addition, regarding the infection situation in 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture in Kansai, "The rate of decrease in the number of infected people has slowed down, but except for Osaka prefecture, the number is gradually decreasing again, and the actual number of infected people has also increased recently. However, if the emergency declaration is lifted and you feel relaxed, the infection may spread again, so you should live with caution, such as attending or refraining from holding meetings that involve eating and drinking for a while. I want you to act cautiously with a sense of crisis that the infection will spread again if you are not careful. "