At the height of his influence and power under the Trump era, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, said MBS, is not in the good graces of the new US administration which wants to recalibrate its relations with Riyadh.

The White House does not hide it and announced, Wednesday, February 24, that President Joe Biden will "soon" speak, for the first time, to King Salman rather than to his son.

In addition, Joe Biden, who had repeatedly criticized human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia during his campaign, will also authorize the declassification of the US intelligence report on the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018. Un report written six weeks after the assassination in the Saudi embassy in Istanbul, which is potentially very compromising for Mohammed Ben Salman.

"It is undeniable that we are witnessing the break with American diplomacy under the Trump era vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia," explains Karim Sader, political scientist and consultant specializing in the Gulf, interviewed by France 24. However, you have to be precise, because it is above all a change of attitude towards one person, namely Crown Prince Mohammed Ben Salman, who was 'the darling' of the Trump administration.

"Another proof of the hostility displayed vis-à-vis the very person of MBS, the decision could not be more explicit consisting in choosing King Salman as interlocutor, and no longer his son who had an almost intimate entrance door in the Oval Office, through President Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, known to interact with him on a daily basis.

Since his arrival at the White House, Joe Biden "has multiplied the decisions unfavorable to the inheriting prince and his works, such as the end of support for the war in Yemen, or the decision to remove the Houthis from the American anti-terrorism list, which was the last diplomatic gift offered by Donald Trump just before leaving power, "recalls Karim Sader.

Without forgetting, he adds, the hand extended by the United States to Iran, with a view to a possible return to the Iran nuclear agreement.

So many files dear to MBS, de facto leader of the Wahhabi petromonarchy, appointed by King Salman crown prince in June 2017, who after having experienced a meteoric rise and a certain notoriety in the West saw his image as a reformer gradually tarnish .

In particular because of its brutal methods of governance and an authoritarian drift illustrated by arrest campaigns carried out in the kingdom against human rights activists, intellectuals and critics.  

War in Yemen, embargo against Qatar ... MBS also collected miscalculations on the diplomatic level, before the assassination of Jamal Khashoggi aroused a wave of international opprobrium against Saudi Arabia and its strongman.

Let go of MBS? 

It remains to be seen whether the US administration can stop working with whoever is destined to rule Saudi Arabia, and whether Joe Biden's decisions are not triggering a process to let MBS loose and provoke his. fall.

The question may arise, according to Karim Sader.

"This rupture signals the end of the feeling of impunity which could animate the young prince under the predecessor of Joe Biden," he said.

While the Trump administration had ardently defended the inheriting prince, going so far as to cover him up in the Khashoggi affair and to relativize his personal and direct responsibility, "this blank check no longer seems relevant".

MBS is not fooled, he knows that this era is over, according to the political scientist.

"The Crown Prince is feeling the pressure of the new administration, he has also slackened off on a number of subjects, in particular about reconciliation with Qatar, and the release of Saudi human rights activist Loujain al- Hathloul, develops Karim Sader. MBS is caught between, on the one hand this new American president who will demand of him more openness and reforms, and on the other, the conservative fringe of the kingdom which remains hostile to change and the modernization projects of the young prince ".

If MBS can no longer count on Washington's support, he will find himself in a very uncomfortable position politically.

"If he loses his American ally, Mohammed Ben Salman will lose a lot of credit internally, judges the political scientist. And this, knowing that he has many enemies who await him at the turn, starting with the conservative fringe and by all the princes he had publicly humiliated ".

"Saudi Arabia remains a major ally of the Americans"

Still, by publicly turning his back on the strong man of the Saudi kingdom, the American president has cast a chill on the future of the relationship between Washington and Riyadh, and of the historic alliance between the first power world and the largest exporter of oil.

"Saudi Arabia remains a major ally of the Americans, and neither country has an interest in ending this alliance, assures Karim Sader. However, for several years now, Saudi Arabia has no longer the same strategic importance from the point of view of the United States ".

Especially from an energy point of view.

"The United States, which have embarked on the development of unconventional energies, including shale gas, have reached a stage of production which allows them to get out of their dependence on Saudi oil," says he. A dependency which was the basis of their alliance.

And to conclude: "Joe Biden wants to rebalance American diplomacy in the region and between the various Gulf monarchies, as Barack Obama had sought to do before him. Who says rebalancing, does not say rupture with the Saudis, so he is is rather to no longer recognize Saudi Arabia's role as a dominating power in the Gulf, especially since the United States can rely more on the United Arab Emirates, knowing that this country, like others in the region, have taken the step of rapprochement with Israel ".

The summary of the week

France 24 invites you to come back to the news that marked the week

I subscribe

Take international news everywhere with you!

Download the France 24 application

google-play-badge_FR