Gas demand will continue to grow according to the Exporting Countries Forum
Audio 02:00
The logo of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project on a pipe of the Chelyabinsk Pipe Rolling Plant belonging to the ChelPipe Group in Chelyabinsk, Russia, February 26, 2020 (illustrative image).
REUTERS - Maxim Shemetov
By: Claire Fages Follow
5 mins
The Covid epidemic has dealt a blow to gas demand, but the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries is still seeing the share of this hydrocarbon increase in the global energy mix, despite the acceleration of the energy transition.
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The Forum of Gas Exporting Countries recognizes it: the Covid epidemic will slow down the growth in gas demand a little, by -2.5% compared to previous forecasts.
But this growth will continue, given the energy needs of a growing population.
According to this club of eleven states, a sort of gas OPEC including Russia, Qatar, Iran and Algeria - but not the United States, gas demand will increase by 50% by 2050, to 5,920 billion m3.
It will double in Asia-Pacific, soon to be the leading consumer area, and will be multiplied by two and a half in Africa.
The only fossil fuel to grow
Gas, the first source of energy from the mid-2040s, will therefore be the only fossil fuel to continue to grow, unlike oil and coal.
Main development sectors according to the rapporteurs: electricity production and industry.
The use of gas should also double in transport, with a switch from maritime fuel oil to liquefied gas, already underway in the maritime sector.
On land, trucks will switch more easily from diesel to gas than to electric.
Asia is moving away from coal
The acceleration of the energy transition, far from harming gas, should therefore boost this fuel.
To move away from coal, hasn't India announced $ 6 billion in gas investments, increasing its targets by 25%?
In China, natural gas is already a priority for the authorities and the new carbon market should encourage its development.
The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil are also promoting gas.
Gas for hydrogen
As for the boom in hydrogen for mobility or energy storage, it should considerably benefit gas, estimates the Forum of Exporting Countries, which promises stability in supply and prices with 77% of reserves and contracts to long term.
Associated with a capture of CO2 emissions, the gas could provide half of the hydrogen, he predict, before electrolysis.
How to finance investments?
The main obstacle to this bright future for gas, recognizes this club of gas countries: the reduction in funding for fossil fuels, including from the World Bank.
However, the Exporting Countries Forum estimates that the investments needed by 2050 to develop gas production and infrastructure will amount to 10,000 billion dollars.
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