The number of second-hand houses in Shenzhen dropped by 70% month-on-month, and some intermediary stores did not open a single order
Under the influence of the New Deal, the Shenzhen property market began to show its effects. The number of second-hand housing network signings declined rapidly, and some intermediary stores "have not opened a single order" after the New Deal.
The Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued three announcements on February 8, announcing the establishment of a second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism, and for the first time released the city’s 3595 residential community second-hand housing transaction reference prices.
But the reference price is generally low, almost equivalent to 30% off the market price.
The most important thing is that, according to the official interpretation of the Shenzhen Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, banks will issue loans based on the reference price.
After the New Deal, how the market reacted, and whether banks have issued second-hand housing loans with reference to the official "guide price" has attracted much attention.
Last week, Shenzhen's second-hand housing network signed a month-on-month drop of 78.3%, and there was no second-hand housing transaction in a store after the New Deal
The real estate agent Xiao Zhu's store is in Bao'an District, Shenzhen.
According to Xiao Zhu, after Shenzhen released the new policy for the second-hand housing market, the intermediary store where it was located had no second-hand housing transactions.
"After the release of the New Deal, most buyers and landlords are in the wait-and-see stage. From the listed prices, the willingness of landlords to cut prices is not high. Every time the New Deal is introduced, there will be a wait-and-see period. At present, the entire market is relatively bleak. Yes." Xiao Zhu said.
The broker Liu Hui has outstanding performance in the past years and has always been the "sales star" of the intermediary company where he works.
However, judging from the post-holiday market situation, there is currently no transaction.
According to Liu Hui, as the new policy on the guidance price of second-hand housing was released just before the Spring Festival, the impact of the implementation of the new policy on the market has not been revealed so quickly.
"The New Deal was released just in time for the New Year. Many of our brokers have already gone home and there are relatively few market transactions. We are currently waiting for the specific implementation rules," said Liu Hui.
The introduction of the reference price policy for second-hand houses has also led to most second-hand houses rushing to "snap gates" on the day the New Deal was released.
According to Liu Hui, his clients have basically completed transactions before the Spring Festival. According to the communication of the mortgage department of their intermediary company, transactions completed online before February 8 will not be affected by the New Deal.
The Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association (hereinafter referred to as "Shenzhen Real Estate Association") according to the statistics of pre-recorded online contract signing on the real estate information platform of the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, shows that from February 8 to February 14, Shenzhen second-hand housing network signed 1671 sets (including self-service online signing), a month-on-month decrease of 30.5%. From the daily trend, the number of online signings reached 1263 on February 8, accounting for 75.5% of the weekly online signings.
The Shenzhen Real Estate Association believes that on February 8th, the number of online signings exceeded 1,000 units or it was related to the "gate grab transaction" caused by the introduction of Shenzhen's second-hand housing transaction reference price policy that day.
From the data point of view, the impact of the New Deal has begun to appear, and the number of second-hand housing network signings has begun to decline rapidly.
The latest data released by the Shenzhen Real Estate Association showed that from February 15 to February 21, there were 362 sets of Shenzhen second-hand housing online signings (including self-service online signings), a decrease of 78.3% from the previous month.
From the perspective of trends, the impact of the New Deal on the market is "immediate", but because it includes the Spring Festival holiday, it will still be affected by a certain degree of "holiday effect", so the final reaction of the market to the New Deal remains to be seen.
There is an internal bank notice to lend at the reference price
On February 22, a loan manager of the Shenzhen branch of China Everbright Bank stated to The Paper that the bank had recently issued a document stating that second-hand housing transactions will be based on the reference price of second-hand housing transactions issued by the Shenzhen Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development as the basis for mortgage loans.
According to public reports from the media, several branches in Shenzhen, including China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, and Bank of Beijing, have stated that they have implemented loan grants in accordance with the official Shenzhen reference price for second-hand housing transactions.
Contracts signed before the Spring Festival do not need to be executed according to the official reference price.
On February 8, the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Establishing a Reference Price Release Mechanism for Second-hand Housing Transaction."
The Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of Shenzhen pointed out that the Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center, based on the survey and analysis, based on the price of second-hand housing online, and referring to the price of the surrounding first-hand housing, comprehensively formed the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in the city’s residential communities, and followed The principle of full coverage of the city and regional grids, with residential quarters as regional grid units, released the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential quarters in the city.
According to the interpretation of Wang Feng, a real estate expert of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and Director of the Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center, the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in Shenzhen is released once a year in principle. The listed price of the intermediary cannot exceed the reference price. Commercial banks will issue the reference price based on the transaction Second-hand housing loans.
According to the reference price list, the unit price of the most expensive residential district in Shenzhen was set at 132,000 yuan.
According to the Securities Times, there is a certain gap between the reference price and the market price.
Taking the most expensive communities as an example, the current transaction reference price of Taikoocheng Garden in Nanshan Shekou is 132,000 yuan, but on the Lianjia website, the average price of this community is listed as 205,400 yuan, and 8 sets are listed. In the house, there are 6 units with a unit price of no less than 190,000.
This means that the reference price given by the Shenzhen Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development is almost equivalent to 30% off the market price.
After the policy was released, Shell Search for a house, Zhongyuan Real Estate, Leyoujia, Qfang.com and other intermediary platforms blocked the sale of listings overnight.
Zheng Shulun, managing director of Shenzhen Centaline, pointed out that the specific rules have not yet been released. Judging from the reference price announced now, it is much lower than the actual transaction price in the market, so it will be difficult to implement.
But if it is seriously low, the owner will not be willing to sell, and it will be difficult for customers to buy a house at this price.
From the perspective of industry insiders, whether the subsequent bank loan assessment price and tax reference price can follow the reference price announced by the government will affect the effect of market landing.
The New Deal will effectively guide the second-hand housing market price expected to fall
Regarding the impact of the New Deal on the market, Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that whether banks will assess prices and issue loans based on this guideline is an important part of whether the New Deal can work.
Judging from the current position, with the exception of individual banks (such as China Everbright Bank) clearly setting appraisal prices in accordance with the guidance prices, most other banks (especially major mortgage lenders) have chosen to wait and see.
Li Yujia believes that only when banks and the government jointly advance, the New Deal can achieve the desired effect. At this stage, buyers and sellers may have a game process, but as long as the policy persists and more banks implement the guidance price to issue loans, second-hand The listed prices in the housing market will definitely fall.
Zhang Bo, Dean of 58 Anju Guest House Property Research Institute, pointed out that Shenzhen’s second-hand housing reference price policy itself aims to ensure that housing is not speculated, and to influence the market by anchoring the price of the second-hand housing community.
At the same time, the implementation of the policy itself can guide reasonable market expectations, which is conducive to fair and just transactions in the market.
Zhang Bo pointed out that to examine and approve loans based on the reference price of second-hand housing, from a practical perspective, is to enhance the influence of the reference price itself on the market during the actual landing process. While controlling real estate financial risks, it also provides a strong guide for market price expectations effect.
It is worth noting that the effect of the implementation of this policy on housing prices will not be immediately apparent, but the effect of long-term promotion will become more obvious, especially in controlling housing price increases.
Zhang Bo believes that appropriate intervention in the price of second-hand housing, this policy will not be implemented on a large scale across the country, but some cities where the second-hand housing market is overheated cannot rule out follow-up in the future, especially in some cities where second-hand housing transactions dominate the market. , The possibility of advancement is relatively large.
The Paper Journalist Ji Simin