Does Europe need Nord Stream 2?
Audio 04:02
A sign directs traffic to the entrance to the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline landing facility in Lubmin, Germany in September 2020 Odd ANDERSEN AFP / File
By: Dominique Baillard Follow
9 min
Will the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany be affected by European sanctions against Russia?
The 27 must speak about it today at the level of the foreign ministers.
If the project is stopped, what will be the consequences for the EU gas supply?
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Europe depends more than 80% on foreign countries for its gas supply.
Russia is its main supplier ahead of Norway and Algeria.
But for ten years the global demand for gas in the European Union has stagnated while it has soared in the rest of the world.
The abandonment of Nord Stream 2, which is not yet in service, will therefore a priori not have a noticeable impact on the supply of the 27. Unless their consumption rebounds even more, which nobody predicts for the moment.
In Europe, the International Energy Agency, on the contrary, plans a decline in gas in favor of renewable energies.
Why is Germany so attached to this submarine gas pipeline project that it is carrying out jointly with Gazprom?
To avoid a catastrophe comparable to that which occurred a few days ago in Texas, the wind turbines frozen by the cold which caused a vast blackout, we must keep conventional plants.
Germany, Europe's biggest consumer of gas, believes that Nord Stream 2 is a safe alternative to the defunct nuclear and doomed coal.
Because Russian gas has never failed him.
The pipe that must be built and financed is an unwavering link between the supplier and his client, as history tends to prove.
On the other hand, Poland, a notorious opponent to Nord Stream 2, has announced its intention to do without Russian gas, by importing more LNG.
Liquefied natural gas. Because it is cheaper?
In 2019 it was much cheaper than the gas delivered by the pipes, in 2020 with the Covid-19 the prices fell even lower.
But it is a very fluctuating market.
When it is stretched the cargoes sail towards the most profitable countries.
Not sure that LNG is the right choice in terms of energy security.
Russian gas, its supporters point out, is more predictable.
Its price is established for the duration of the contract, it varies marginally depending on the price of oil, which gives long-term visibility to the consumer.
Choosing one source over another therefore goes well beyond the economic equation alone, it is first and foremost a choice of energy policy.
A choice that can also be influenced by other supplier countries, such as the United States
Donald Trump has not stopped putting pressure on Nord Stream 2, to better sell American liquefied gas.
With success.
Since the summer of 2018, European imports of American LNG have soared.
The Biden administration is also hostile to the pipeline.
Will it defend the shale gas industry, the main supplier of LNG exports in the name of jobs?
Or on the contrary to be more conciliatory with the largest country of the European Union manhandled by the previous administration?
Anthony Blinken, the new Secretary of State, could raise the subject with the 27 as he is invited to join their meeting to discuss sanctions against Russia.
The fate of Nord Stream 2 is not only linked to the question of respect for human rights in Russia, the economic and strategic interests of European and American protagonists will also be taken into account.
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