State Department and the Germans

Well, to all appearances, the next stage of the battle for the energy map of Europe this time more or less confidently begins to approach its, in general, quite natural resolution.

As a member of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives Michael McCall told the American press, the State Department has already submitted to Congress a list of organizations that may be subject to sanctions under the Nord Stream 2 project. The fact of the transfer of this, in general, rather entertaining and recommended for thoughtful study of the document and other more or less authoritative overseas sources.

So, in particular, according to Bloomberg, the document mentioned the violation of restrictive measures by the Russian pipe-laying barge Fortuna and its owner, KVT-RUS.

What is especially amusing - both the ship and the company are already on the lists of American restrictions, but any German or other European companies involved in the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 project are somehow on the "list of the State Department" not at all.

Which, by the way, causes quite a sincere surprise not only on this side of the ocean.

For example, let's give the floor to the same Republican Michael McCall, who, by the way, is an ardent opponent of Nord Stream 2 due to the simplest and most primitive, but from the point of view of internal American rules, quite respected: it is quite legal, from the point of view of indigenous political principles, American LNG.

At the same time, the congressman's reaction turned out to be so impressive that somehow it even further pleases the credulous European ear with rather fresh notes, let's listen.

“Simply put, today's sanctions are completely inadequate.

Congressional intentions are clear and cannot be ignored: the bipartisan mandate of the last two defense budgets is intended to halt the completion of the Russian pipeline, ”the Republican congressman said in a statement, naturally posted on Twitter.

From where, by the way, they haven’t yet been cut out for some reason, following the leader of his own party, who worked here somehow, I remember, in the post of the entire US president.

In short, I'm sorry, I didn't think I would hear it from there, but "Biden leaked everything."

What can I say here: what happened, in general, is not news for the expert community.

Something like this, in principle, many - especially in Germany - and expected.

And the point here is not at all (or rather, not only) that, according to the same Bloomberg, the US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken had already made it quite clear that he did not want to impose restrictive measures against Germany and considered it more important to find a diplomatic solution of the problem.

And not even in Berlin's constantly erupting irritation: yes, the German allies are, of course, much more important for the American democrats than for the Trumpist republicans oriented towards their own "rusty belt".

But in America, just as no one was going to reckon with the opinion of the Germans on issues of vital importance to themselves before, and now about no one intends either.

Another thing is on issues - well, let's say - for myself personally secondary.

Especially in the circumstances ...

Here, in fact, everything is quite simple, and we have written about this more than once.

The US oil industry, as well as the gas production and gas processing industries connected with it (and these are primarily the so-called shale), in the closest way - purely technologically - and before the arrival of Biden was in a deep systemic crisis, and was saved largely thanks to the really heroic efforts of Donald Trump.

Who, for the sake of this salvation of the American oil industry, if you remember, did not even hesitate to call either the Saudi princes or Vladimir Putin personally.

And in fact - we must pay tribute - largely thanks to his decisive actions, it was possible to formalize some, albeit largely informal, agreement.

Which the expert community around the world immediately designated as the "new big oil troika" or "OPEC ++ agreement".

After the defeat of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections, the informal OPEC ++ agreement, by the way, quite naturally and somehow quite quietly disintegrated.

No additional arguments are needed here: it is no coincidence that Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have already made the last decisions on the fate of global oil markets together, within the framework of a completely formal and "simple" OPEC +.

And this happened, we note separately, back in December, when Donald Trump had not even moved to Florida yet.

And it’s understandable why: just with the arrival of the Democrats, led by Biden, to the American government, the situation radically changed systemically.

And the American "oil industry", as well as the planned "gas expansion" associated with oil production, will not be rescued and supported there anymore - again, there is no need to invent anything, the new American president spoke about this back in his election campaign.

Therefore, even the emerging - albeit in the distant future - the world economy's emergence from the systemic crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will by no means mean the resumption of US activity in global markets that oil (if you remember, before the last crisis, the United States even took the first position for its production), that of liquefied, as well as any other natural gas.

In the absence of the product itself, which must be supplied somewhere to these same markets.

No, of course - it won't happen tomorrow.

And it will not happen at all, as they say, landslide - such a scenario, of course, is also possible, but still unlikely.

But at the level of the medium term, it is better to forget about the expansion of American LNG into European markets for at least the next decade.

And it is better to delete it from the equation altogether: this "unknown" is already too well known, and it simply does not exist.

Which is not a secret for anyone, including all the same Germans.

And in this kind of situation, Biden, who also positions himself as a staunch opponent of "dirty" shale production and a supporter of "green energy", to insist on strict restrictions on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is also It has long been clear that the "allied" Germans need it much more than these disgusting Russians - somehow, admit, it is not good at all.

Therefore, this topic is better if you do not completely "merge" - it just will not work while such, mentioned above, Michael McCalls sit in the Congress - but at least to quench it a little.

In addition, in this case, the United States does not care what is called, there are options for how they can drastically reduce the supply of Russian gas to Europe - for this it is enough to call Kiev, and not to Biden himself, but to any third-rate employee of the State Department, and stop supplies Russian gas through the "Ukrainian corridor".

What is called - on click.

In a word, the absence of European, primarily German companies in the American sanctions lists for the gas pipeline being completed is not a cessation of "hostilities" in European energy markets.

It’s just a certain lull necessary for the new American administration to regroup forces and clarify positions.

Well, as regards Ukraine itself, the completion of the construction of Nord Stream 2, actually sanctioned by the new democratic American administration, is, of course, another zrada from the series "The State Department and the Germans."

Although this kind of development of events was understandable from the very beginning, because the Americans have at least something to talk about with Germany.

And what else to talk about with this - so this is overseas in any administration, whether democratic or republican - no one at all can understand for sure.

Because, excuse me: why?

Ukraine lost everything, excuse me, absolutely not now, but then, when with its own hands it renounced any form of sovereignty, voluntarily becoming "an instrument of Western politics."

Well, when the tool ceases to be needed, if they do not get rid of it, then in any case they do not enter into discussions with it, but silently put it away in the barn.

If necessary, they will get it.

But it will turn out to be necessary for a while in a different way - they will simply order: and the valve on the pipe is screwed on at the first instruction.

In short, everything interesting on the European and, so to speak, “near-European” energy markets is just beginning.

Well then.

We will be attentive and, naturally, quite interested in watching.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.