Urban exodus: the curse of Covid-19

Audio 03:33

The empty streets of London (illustrative image).

© Justin Tallis / AFP

By: Dominique Baillard Follow

8 min

From London to Dubai, the big metropolises are emptying, because of the Covid-19.

A real hemorrhage in countries with high immigration.

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More than 4% of the population has literally evaporated from the Gulf countries according to the study published this week by Standard and Poor's.

And according to the agency the world capital of luxury

bling bling

, the emirate of Dubai, which attracts a lot of tourists, is the city most affected by this exodus, without giving precise figures since the United Arab Emirates does not provide no statistics on the nationality of the workforce.

Oman, for its part, has seen its population shrink by 12% in one year.

In this region of the world, expatriates represent 80% of the workforce, they are the engine of growth, because they bring skills that are not widely used locally or because they accept low wages.

And they are also the adjustment variable in the event of a crisis

There is no social safety net for them, they have to leave as soon as the activity runs out of steam.

Historically their influx is correlated with the price of oil, the main resource of the region with gas.

When prices are high, expatriates are in great demand and when prices fall sharply, most of these working poor are quickly dismissed.

Their arrival in the Gulf began to slow down in 2015 after the barrel plunge of 2014. The oil crisis of early 2020 combined with the effects of the slowdown caused by the confinement caused a downright drop in the population.

A calamity for migrants: they can no longer send money to their families.

The Gulf countries are one of the main sources of transfer, a quarter of expatriate remittances come from this region of the world.

These migrants therefore have an interest in returning as soon as possible.

Despite the current peak of oil at $ 60, Standard and Poor's is more likely to expect a barrel around $ 50 this year, which is too low a level to generate strong enough growth to trigger their return.

In addition, these countries have all tightened their reception conditions for foreign workers in order to favor national employment.

The region is therefore at a pivotal moment: with the post-covid recovery, it could reallocate jobs to nationals and thus provide work for young people, the most affected by unemployment.

Without sufficient investment in education, they will not necessarily be trained or ready to take menial jobs.

Medium-term growth could therefore be weakened by the absence of this foreign workforce.

London has lost 8% of its population, is its situation comparable to that of the Gulf

?

Like many large Western cities, the British capital has been partly deserted by young city dwellers aspiring to a quieter and cheaper way of life through teleworking.

And it was partly abandoned because of Brexit.

But as in Dubai or Riyadh it is above all the departure of foreign workers very present in the services, which depopulated it, 700,000 inhabitants left.

Because of the confinements, but also because of the strength of the pandemic, these workers, mostly from Eastern Europe, preferred to return home;

they found health security and very quickly a job.

Not sure that they are very motivated for the return ticket.

The UK has lost a total of 1.3 million people.

But migrants continue to be magnetized by this country, arrivals from other parts of the world could very quickly take over.

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  • Economy

  • International Migration