(Fighting New Coronary Pneumonia) Expert: The drop in the number of confirmed diagnoses in Hong Kong does not mean that the epidemic has bottomed out or clustered infections or emerge within a week

  China News Service, Hong Kong, February 16 (Reporter Han Xingtong) After about three months of repeated outbreaks in Hong Kong, the fourth wave of outbreaks in Hong Kong finally recorded single-digit confirmed cases for two consecutive days after the Lunar New Year.

However, when two Hong Kong medical experts were interviewed by China News Service on the 16th, they both believed that the decline in the number of confirmed diagnoses did not mean that the fourth wave of the epidemic had bottomed out. Some cases of infection due to the Spring Festival party may only gradually emerge within a week.

  After 9 new confirmed cases in Hong Kong on the 15th, the number of confirmed cases in a single day on the 16th fell further to 8. The Health Protection Center and the Hospital Authority did not hold an epidemic press conference that day. This was the first time since the fourth wave of the outbreak.

  Does this mean that the fourth wave of the epidemic is coming to an end?

A reporter from China News Agency interviewed two medical experts, and they both thought it was too early to make such a judgment.

  Respiratory specialist Liang Zichao pointed out that the decrease in confirmed cases is obviously related to public activities during the Lunar New Year holiday.

There were 9 local cases of unknown origin on the first day of the Lunar New Year, and the number fell sharply to 2 cases of unknown origin on the second day of the Lunar New Year. They were also low in the next two days, which was obviously related to the decrease in the number of people tested during the holiday.

  "The people undergoing testing during this period basically belong to industries that need to return to work after the year, such as catering, teachers, beauty salon staff, etc." Liang Zichao frankly said that these groups are low-risk, even if the daily test volume reaches 230,000 There will not be too many cases.

On the contrary, potential patients who are truly at risk may not be tested.

  Tang Jisheng, vice president of the Hong Kong Medical Council Licensed Doctors Association, also believes that the number of people undergoing tests during the holidays and the staff of the testing centers have been greatly reduced, which is one of the factors that have contributed to the recent sharp drop in the number of confirmed diagnoses.

"The decline in the number of confirmed diagnoses can only reflect some circumstances, but it remains to be seen whether the gathering of people during the holidays will lead to a rebound."

  During the Lunar New Year, crowds of people can be seen in the Mong Kok Flower Market and other Lunar New Year Fairs, Wong Tai Sin Temple, and shopping malls. The reporters on the first and second days of the Lunar New Year also observed many citizens wearing new clothes and carrying gift boxes, and the whole family went out to celebrate the New Year together.

Whether the walking between relatives and friends will cause the epidemic to rebound, Liang Zichao believes that if there are infection cases, they will gradually emerge within a week after the eighth day of the eighth day.

  Tang Jisheng’s view is similar, "It is difficult to say whether the epidemic will rebound or not. The changes in the next two weeks are very important."

  However, the Secretary for Food and Health held a press conference on the afternoon of the 16th to announce that social distancing measures will be relaxed from the seventh day of the Lunar New Year, including restaurants open for evening meals until 10 pm, and can accommodate a table of up to 4 people; some tables are listed The premises may resume operations to a limited extent.

At the same time, the Education Bureau has earlier announced that all kindergartens and primary and secondary schools in Hong Kong will resume half-day face-to-face teaching after the Lunar New Year holiday, and that no more than one-third of the total number of students will return to school every day.

  Tang Jisheng believes that there is nothing wrong with the SAR government’s relaxation of social distancing measures. “The economy has been restricted by epidemic prevention measures, many industries have been hit hard, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises may fail due to the long economic downturn.” Under this circumstance , The SAR government must strike a balance between epidemic prevention policies and economic recovery.

He believes that although the rebound of the epidemic is related to policies, the public's awareness of fighting the epidemic is even more important.

  In this way, the relaxation of social distancing measures coincides with the cycle of cases in which clusters of cases occur during holidays.

But Liang Zichao's analysis pointed out that the risk is limited.

  "Although there may be clusters during holidays, the chance of super-spreading due to suspension of work and school is not particularly high. Even if the epidemic rebounds to two to three times the current number of confirmed cases in a single day, it will not suddenly rise to the fourth wave of epidemics. High position.” Among them, how to prevent the resumption of work, classes, and the market from colliding with the cycle of rebounds. He emphasized that strengthening testing services will be the top priority, such as increasing the number of testing centers and manpower, and the number of mobile testing stations. Wait, and distribute sample collection bottles at workplaces where cases occur as soon as possible.

  He reminded that if the above two factors overlap, there is a chance that "cluster infection plus construction group outbreak" like the New Year's Day holiday will eventually lead to a rebound of the epidemic.

  Liang Zichao said that after the social distancing measures are relaxed, the public should avoid cross-family contact and excessive activities. If it can be done in moderation, the risks can still be controlled.

After a week or two, if the number of confirmed diagnoses remains low or low, it can be judged that the epidemic is stable. By then, through measures such as compulsory testing and voluntary inspections, Hong Kong can move towards "zeroing" again.

(Finish)