(Economic Observation) Will China's real estate market emerge from the "slow bull" market if the regulation is overweight?

  China News Service, Beijing, February 15th, title: Will China's real estate market emerge from the "slow bull" market if the regulation increases?

  China News Agency reporter Pang Wuji

  Some of China’s core cities are ushering in the gradual increase in the regulation of the property market. When buying a new house in Shanghai, you must first calculate the points, the charged price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen, the purchase of a house in Hangzhou within 5 years, and the mortgage loan interest rate on floating houses in Guangzhou... Has received much attention.

  Since the beginning of the year, the real estate market in first-tier cities has been repeatedly over-regulated.

  On the evening of January 21, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Ten Articles" of the new regulation and control policy, and four days later, the "foreign auction house" was included in the purchase restriction.

On January 29, the Shanghai Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau issued eight measures including strict implementation of real estate loan concentration management.

On February 2, multiple departments in Shanghai interviewed major real estate agencies, sales agency companies and representative real estate companies.

On February 6, the new rules concerning new house lottery in the "Shanghai Ten Articles" were officially implemented. Points are required to buy a new house, and only those with higher points can participate in the lottery.

  Shenzhen has also issued relevant policies on the property market 5 times within 20 days.

For example, it has been stipulated that families purchasing commercial houses can only be registered under the names of members who are qualified to buy houses; the reference prices of second-hand housing transactions in 3595 residential communities in the city have been released.

Among them, the price control of second-hand houses is regarded as a "big move" of regulation-according to the latest regulations of Shenzhen, second-hand houses whose quotation is higher than the reference price will not be listed.

  Beijing has also expressed its position again recently.

It was reported on February 10 that Ni Hong, the deputy minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, led a team to Beijing to investigate and discuss real estate regulation.

The relevant person in charge of the Beijing Municipal Government stated that the capital real estate market will never allow any form of speculation and speculation. If there are signs of local volume and price increases, targeted control measures will be taken quickly to ensure market stability.

  Why do local governments frequently increase regulation?

  Since the second half of last year, the property market in Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places has been exposed to the phenomenon of "owners jumping in price" and "queuing to shake new houses", while in Hangzhou, there have been "ten thousand people shaking" new houses.

Regarding the reasons for the concentration of the housing market in first-tier cities, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, analyzed that on the one hand, the continuous net inflow of high-income and high-tech groups has brought strong demand; on the other hand, real estate in first-tier cities is regarded as a core asset , Is an important target for the preservation and appreciation of the wealth management of high-income groups.

  Especially under the special environment in 2021, due to the impact of the overseas epidemic, a large number of school district housing needs will return, and some home-home buyers may also return to the first and second tiers. The real estate market in core cities is still under upward pressure.

At the same time, people's willingness to return home to buy a home has also decreased significantly. The "2020-2021 Return to Home Buying Survey Report" previously released by 58.com and Anjuke shows that only 37.8% of the surveyed people in 2021 expressed their desire to return to their hometown to buy a home.

In the same period last year, this ratio was close to 70%.

  This year, many places advocated celebrating the New Year on the spot, and the number of people returning home decreased.

Daily interactive big data shows that in the seven days before the Spring Festival travel season in 2021, the number of returnees in 19 first-tier and new first-tier cities has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, with the highest drop of over 70% and the lowest drop of nearly 50%.

Home-buying has always been one of the important driving forces supporting the sales of third- and fourth-tier property markets. The colder home-buying this year may mean that first- and second-tier cities will increase "off-season" demand during the Spring Festival.

In order to avoid a jump in the property market in the coming year, some places began to introduce intensive control measures.

  At the same time that the regulation and control are issued continuously, the real estate financial prudential management policy tools have also been introduced.

Liu Shui, deputy research director of the Corporate Business Department of the Zhongzhi Research Institute, believes that the future real estate market may show three characteristics of weak cycle, "slow bull" market and differentiation.

  According to the analysis of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, on the one hand, prudent financial management can prevent a large amount of funds from flowing to the real estate market, thereby preventing the real estate market from rising and falling.

On the other hand, China’s urbanization rate may reach 70% in 2030, and GDP will continue to grow at a medium to high speed in the next 10 years, and the real estate market still has room for upward development.

Under financial and other regulatory interventions, China's real estate market may see a "slow bull" market in the next 10 years.

  However, the general rise in housing prices in large, medium and small cities may be difficult to reproduce.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai Securities, pointed out that as the characteristics of the stock economy gradually emerge, the Chinese property market will show obvious differentiation characteristics like the stock market.

In the next five years, the number of cities with falling house prices will exceed the number of cities with rising prices.