Despite certain projections which predicted a very sharp increase in cases of coronavirus contamination because of the different variants, for the time being, the epidemic continues to ebb in France.
A finding that questions their real contagiousness compared to the first strains of Covid-19.
DECRYPTION
Difficult to navigate in this health crisis where nothing has been going as planned for a year now.
While alarms are multiplying around variants of Covid-19, contaminations paradoxically seem to begin to decline during this first fortnight of February.
If this decrease confuses epidemiologists, the trend has been clear for two weeks at the national level, despite localized increases.
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All indicators down
Currently, 18,000 cases of contamination are observed per day on average, or 9% less in a week.
A drop in the incidence rate has also been recorded, from 215 cases per 100,000 inhabitants just ten days ago, to 193 cases on Sunday.
The same goes for hospitalizations, which have fallen by 10%.
The reproduction rate (the famous R) has also fallen below the 1 bar.
The epidemic is therefore indeed receding, while the English, Brazilian and South African variants continue to progress and worry local authorities in Moselle, the Vosges, Brittany, or even in the Hauts-de -France.
These variants, which represent up to 35% or even 40% of contaminations in certain territories, should therefore boost the figures.
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Only, this is clearly not the case.
Among the hypotheses put forward is that of variants that are less contagious than expected, as explained by Mircéa Sofonea, lecturer in epidemiology and evolution of infectious diseases at the University of Montpellier.
"It is quite possible that the excess contagiousness is not as important as that estimated in Great Britain", defends the specialist.
"Instead of having a 70% increase like it was in some projections, it could be 20 or 30%. In that case, it doesn't infect a lot."
Hospitals in battle order
The Directorate General of Health (DGS) still sent a circular at the end of last week to all regional health agencies in the country.
Objective: that a crisis organization be implemented in each region, whatever the level of hospital tension.
All hospitals must therefore be in battle order and be ready in case the variants boost the number of officially detected cases.
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Because even if this is not the observation drawn up at the present time, public health specialists wish to stick as closely as possible to the situation, and this by taking local measures now.