Can the hotspot cities cool down?
Our reporter Zhao Yingying
"After lunch and reading the news, the fixed assets were less than 2 million yuan." On February 8, the Shenzhen owner's sentence was widely quoted.
On the same day, the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced the formal establishment of a second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism, and used residential communities as regional grid units to refine the 3595 residential communities in Shenzhen.
This move is regarded as a new regulation and control measure by the government to guide rational transactions in the market under the turbulent real estate market "new wave".
From interviews with three departments in Beijing to We-Media Big V, Shanghai’s implementation of the “point system” for new house lottery, and now Shenzhen’s release of reference prices for second-hand housing transactions, in the beginning of 2021, property market regulation in first- and second-tier hot cities is continuing to increase.
Shenzhen second-hand housing platform clear listing price
"Taikoo Chengbei, no quotation." "China Resources City Runfu Phase I, no quotation." "Vanke City Garden, no quotation." Click on Lianjia Shenzhen Second-hand Housing Network, and buyers can see it in the listing quotation column It's all blank.
Some brokers said that listings above the reference price cannot be displayed to the public, and they are closing the price information of these listings.
The "reference price" mentioned by the broker is a new system established in Shenzhen on February 8-a mechanism for issuing reference prices for second-hand housing transactions.
According to the introduction of the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development, the reference price of second-hand housing transactions is a comprehensive city-wide housing formed by the Shenzhen Real Estate and Urban Construction Development Research Center on the basis of investigation and analysis, based on the online price of second-hand housing, and referring to the price of surrounding first-hand housing. The purpose of the reference price of second-hand housing transactions in the community is to guide the market rational transactions and real estate brokerage agencies to reasonably release listed prices, guide commercial banks to issue second-hand housing loans rationally, and stabilize market expectations.
How will the second-hand housing transaction reference price work in the future?
The Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban-rural Development has not disclosed it yet, but on February 9th, the reporter found that multiple platforms including Lianjia, Zhongyuan, and Shell Search have all cleared the quotations of second-hand housing listings.
Guide price expectations to reduce the leverage of house purchases
“The selling price does not need to go up, but it is impossible for the owners to sell at a discount.” After the prices of 3,595 residential communities were announced, most industry insiders pointed out that the official reference price was lower than the actual market transaction price, especially It is that the guide price of hotspot community is generally equivalent to 30% off the market price.
Take the “net celebrity” community China Resources City Runfu as an example. The transaction reference price of the first, second and third phases of the community is 132,000 yuan/square meter, while the previous owners' average listing price on Lianjia.com is 180,000 yuan. /M² up and down.
“A significant problem that appeared in the Shenzhen property market last year was the first. Second-hand housing prices are upside down.” Deng Zhiwang, vice president of the Shenzhen Economic Association, pointed out that most of Shenzhen’s previous regulatory policies were aimed at new houses. This time, a guide price was set for second-hand housing. Conducive to the formation of a stable expectation for the entire market.
The reporter noticed that if the reference price of China Resources City Runfu Phase III was 132,000 yuan/square meter compared with the average price of 130,000 yuan/square meter at the opening of the new China Resources City Runfu Phase IV, the spread is almost negligible. .
Many experts also pointed out that the more important and profound meaning of the second-hand housing transaction reference price release mechanism is that in the future, commercial banks may be guided to reasonably issue second-hand housing loans with reference to the transaction reference price and reduce the leverage of housing purchases. When buyers need to pay more down payment, Housing transaction volume will also tend to cool down.
In the second half of 2020, the Shenzhen property market is indeed very hot.
This enthusiasm is manifested in the turbulent "new wave", the second-hand housing market is also rising in volume and price.
According to the statistics of the Shenzhen Real Estate Agency Association, there are 120,295 second-hand housing online signings (including self-service) in Shenzhen in 2020, which is 17.3% higher than in 2019.
If you exclude the part of self-service online signing, the number of online signings in 2020 will hit a new high since the statistics were available in 2016.
"Patch" the implementation of the "housing, housing, no speculation" policy
At the beginning of 2021, the real estate market has stepped on the brakes, and Shenzhen is not the only one who has increased its regulatory policies.
On January 27, Hangzhou issued a new regulation and upgrade policy, raising the threshold for purchase restrictions, and clarifying that families who have settled in Hangzhou for less than 5 years are restricted from purchasing one house.
On February 3, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Municipal Internet Information Office, and the Beijing Banking and Insurance Regulatory Bureau conducted a intensive interview with five self-media organizations, requesting them not to deviate from "housing and living without speculation" when publishing articles related to the real estate market. Positioning, not to create panic when buying houses in various ways, and not to speculate on the direction or trend of regulatory policies.
On February 6, Shanghai also officially implemented the "point system" for new house lottery. The first batch of 3 new house projects all adopted points sorting, and priority was given to satisfying the demand for self-occupied houses of "family without house".
"In the beginning of the year, many cities have released the signal of increasing the regulation of the property market. The main reason is that the regional property market is heating up significantly, which has led to the expectation of the market." According to Wang Xiaoqian, an analyst at the Zhuge Real Estate Data Research Center, the tightening of regulation is mainly based on market conditions "Housing to live without speculation" also continues the previous model of filling policy loopholes, strengthening purchase restrictions, and guaranteeing home purchases for families without houses. The fundamental purpose is to curb speculation. "It is expected that there will still be cities in the future to follow up regulation and upgrade. The high market enthusiasm and the obvious increase in house prices will lead to policy tightening."