Arnaud Fontanet, member of the Scientific Council, believes in an interview with the "Journal du Dimanche" that the English variant "is now giving it away" in France and that our ability to control its progress depends on the implementation of possible new restrictions.
"Any new restrictions" will depend on "our ability to control the progression of the English variant" of Covid-19, said epidemiologist Arnaud Fontanet, member of the Scientific Council, in an interview with the
Journal du dimanche
.
"Everything will depend on our ability to control the progress of the English variant. It is now he who sets the tone, and who will impose new restrictions if necessary," says the professor.
"The transmission is done a lot in family or between friends"
The English variant was responsible for 3.3% of new contaminations in France at the beginning of January, and 14% at the end of the month, recalls Arnaud Fontanet.
"If we continue on this trajectory (...), we will reach 30-35% in mid-February and the number of hospital admissions will then be around 2,000 per day. The variant will become the majority around March 1 ", indicates this member of the Scientific Council, whose recommendations guide the executive.
He also detailed the places of contamination identified by the 3rd ComCor study for the Institut Pasteur, a study which confirms the conclusions of the first two.
"The transmission is done a lot with family or friends", he notes.
"Teleworking protects but contaminations are less frequent in the office than in October", no doubt thanks to a better application of protective gestures and to the wearing of a mask, according to him.
Shops, religious places and public transport do not increase "the risk of infection either", unlike carpooling, "no doubt because space is reduced and wearing a mask is not systematic".
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Little chance of controlling the epidemic without containment?
Asked about President Emmanuel Macron's decision not to confine the French, Arnaud Fontanet declares that containment, "if it had been accepted by the population, would have made it possible to relieve hospitals and to regain control of the epidemic" .
"But the economic, social and educational cost would have been very high," he said.
"Suddenly, the government has chosen to give a last chance to non-re-containment, at the risk of seeing the health situation deteriorate further and being forced later to re-contain".
"Without containment, the chances of controlling the epidemic are slim," he finally believes.