It has been more than three weeks since the emergency declaration was issued in the three Kansai prefectures of Osaka, Kyoto, and Hyogo, and the four prefectures of Tochigi, Aichi, Gifu, and Fukuoka.
What has changed in the spread of outbreaks and infections?
At NHK, we analyzed the data with the help of IT companies and epidemiological experts.
What is the change in the number of people?
NHK is a three prefectures in Kansai where an emergency declaration has been issued using mobile phone location information data collected by IT-related company "Agoop" with the permission of the user in a form that does not identify individuals. We analyzed the number of people at major points in the four prefectures of Tochigi, Aichi, Gifu, and Fukuoka.
The analyzed time is
▼ from 6:00 am to 6:00 pm during the day
▼
from 6:00 pm
to midnight the next day at night.
As a result, the number of people at the main points on the 4th has increased during the day and at night compared to the average of the previous 4 weeks on weekdays.
Comparison of daytime crowds
Looking at the daytime, it
increased by
17% near Gifu Station
and by 4% near Osaka Umeda Station and Hakata Station.
▼ The area around Sannomiya Station in Kobe City was 0%, which was almost the same.
On the other hand, the points of decrease were
▼ -14% near Utsunomiya Station
,
▼ -5%
near Nagoya Station, and
▼ -3% near Kyoto Station.
[Comparison with the first emergency declaration]
▼ 182% near Hakata station, about 2.8 times,
▼ 178% near Gifu station, about 2.8 times,
▼ 150% near Osaka Umeda station, about 2.5 times,
▼ Kyoto The area near the station is 148%, which is about 2.5 times, and the
area near Sannomiya station in Kobe city is 132%, which is about 2.3 times.
In addition,
▼ near Nagoya Station increased by 97%, and
▼ near Utsunomiya Station increased by 43%, and the number of people increased at all points.
Comparison of nighttime crowds
At night,
it increased by
6% near Nagoya Station
, 5% near Gifu Station
, and 4% near Hakata Station.
On the other hand, the points of decrease were
▼ -30% near Utsunomiya Station,
▼
-10%
near Kyoto Station
,
▼ -5%
near Sannomiya Station in Kobe City, and
▼ -1% near Osaka Umeda Station.
[Comparison with the first emergency declaration]
▼ 189% near Hakata station, about 2.9 times,
▼ 177% near Osaka Umeda station, about 2.8 times,
▼ 151% near Sannomiya station in Kobe city, about 2.5 times ,
▼ 135% near Kyoto station was about 2.4 times,
▼ near Nagoya station was 131% about 2.3 times,
▼ near Gifu station was 120% about 2.2 times.
In addition,
it increased by 12% near Utsunomiya Station.
How many people are infected from one infected person
When NHK calculated the "effective reproduction number", which is one of the indicators of the infection status and indicates how many people the infection spreads from one infected person, by a simple method, a state of emergency was declared11. In some prefectures, the rate of infection reduction has tended to slow down, but it is generally heading toward convergence.
Experts point out, "Although the downward trend is slowing down, it is thought that the effects of the measures have come out to a certain extent, and the point is whether we can maintain this state forever."
NHK calculated the effective reproduction number of 11 prefectures with a state of emergency based on the data up to the 4th using a simple method supervised by an epidemiological expert.
The effective reproduction number indicates how many people the infection spreads from one infected person, and it is said that the infection spreads when it exceeds "1", and converges when it falls below "1".
In order to get it more accurately, it is necessary to consider more conditions such as estimating the onset date and calculating it, but since it takes time, the number of infected people per day confirmed as a guideline is also included. It is calculated by a simple method.
* In the future, the data on the number of effective reproductions released by public institutions may differ as a result.
Tochigi Prefecture
In Tochigi Prefecture, where the state of emergency will be lifted on the 7th of this month
,
▽
1.52 as of the 7th of
last month,
▽
1.20 as of the 14th of
last month,
▽
0.72 as of the 21st of
last month,
▽
0.60 as of the 28th of last month,
▽ 4th At the time, it is 0.66, which is below "1".
Aichi prefecture
Aichi Prefecture was
1.05 as of the 7th of
last month, 1.13 as of the 14th of last month, which was higher than "1", but
0.91 as of the 21st of
last month, 0.85 as of the 28th of last month, and as of the
4th of
last month.
But it is below 0.66 and "1".
Gifu Prefecture
Gifu prefecture is
▽ 1.17 as of 7th of
last month
,
▽ 1.01 as of 14th of
last month,
▽
0.91 as of 21st of
last month,
▽
0.79 as of 28th of last month,
▽ 0.73 as of 4th, which is below "1". ..
Osaka
Osaka Prefecture was
▽ 1.26 as of 7th of
last month
,
▽ 1.31 as of 14th of last month, which was higher than "1"
,
▽
0.96 as of 21st of
last month, 0.82 as of 28th of last month,
▽ as of 4th. It is 0.72, which is below "1".
Kyoto
Kyoto Prefecture is
▽ 1.02 as of 7th of
last month
,
▽ 1.22 as of 14th of
last month,
▽
0.99 as of 21st of
last month,
▽
0.90 as of 28th of last month,
▽ 0.66 as of 4th, which is below "1". ..
Hyogo prefecture
Hyogo prefecture is
▽ 0.97 as of 7th of
last month
,
▽ 1.33 as of 14th of
last month,
▽
0.98 as of 21st of
last month,
▽
0.84 as of 28th of last month,
▽ 0.71 as of 4th, which is below "1". I will.
In 2 prefectures and 1 prefecture in Kansai
,
▽
1.12 as of 7th of
last month,
▽
1.30 as of 14th of
last month
,
▽ 0.97 as of 21st of last month, which is lower than "1",
▽ 0.84 as of 28th of last month,
▽ as of 4th of
last month
It is 0.70.
Fukuoka Prefecture
Fukuoka prefecture was
▽ 1.18 as of 7th of
last month
,
▽ 1.28 as of 14th of
last month
,
▽ 1.02 as of 21st of
last month,
▽
0.75 as of 28th of last month,
▽ 0.70 as of 4th, which is below "1". I am.
Whole country
In addition
,
▽
as of 7th of last month was 1.17,
▽ as of 14th of last month was 1.27, which was higher than "1", but
▽ as of 21st of last month was 0.96,
▽ as of 28th of last month was 0.77, and as of
▽ 4th. But it is 0.75, which is below "1".
Expert "Remind each and every one of us to continue taking measures"
Professor Kazuhiro Tateda of Toho University, the chairman of the Japan Society for Infectious Diseases, said, "If we can maintain this state in the future, it is thought that we will gradually but surely converge. On the other hand, the effective reproduction number is 0.7 to 0.8. If you do not maintain the minimum condition, it will be difficult to cancel the state of emergency that was extended on the 7th of next month, so we will refrain from participating in eating and drinking places where infections are likely to spread, and actively promote telework. It is necessary for each and every one of us to stay alert and continue to take measures, such as refraining from going out unnecessarily. "