[Explanation] A few days ago, with the exception of Hebei and Heilongjiang, which have not yet held the two provincial meetings, the remaining 29 provinces in China have all specified their economic growth targets for 2021 in their government work reports.
On the whole, the 29 provinces set GDP growth targets for 2021 at no less than 6%, and Hubei and Hainan have the highest GDP growth targets, both of which are above 10%.
Economists say it makes sense for these two provinces to set an expected target of 10%.
[Concurrent] Wan Zhe, Economist, Academic Committee Member of Pangu Think Tank
For Hubei, in 2020, especially in the first and second quarters, it is basically in a state of economic stagnation due to the new crown epidemic, so its base should be said to be particularly low.
After the second half of the year, we saw that the second and third rounds of the global epidemic did not actually affect the cities in central China. Therefore, it is not surprising that Hubei has set such a highest growth rate.
From the perspective of Hainan, the impact of the epidemic is not too great. The current policy of the Hainan Free Trade Port as a whole has actually given it great benefits. In fact, it has made good results in shopping in the bonded area.
On the other hand, we must also see that Hainan Province’s overall GDP plate was relatively small in the past, so the marginal effect of its growth space and speed should be relatively large.
[Explanation] Wan Zhe said that in recent years, consumer demand has played a strong role in driving economic growth.
In 2021, Hubei and Hainan should strengthen demand-side management, give full play to the role of consumption engines, increase service industries, and boost economic development.
In addition, the two provinces should also adjust measures to local conditions and develop their own characteristic and advantageous industries.
[Concurrent] Wan Zhe, Economist, Academic Committee Member of Pangu Think Tank
I think Hainan pays more attention to its international status as a free trade zone, a free trade port, and more research on opening up, or market-based rule of law, and how to go deeper in order to make it a truly international one. Kind of trading port.
For Hubei, as a central city, on the one hand, it has to make its own judgment on the important position of the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone.
In fact, Hubei is especially like Wuhan. It has many universities and research institutes. It should include chips in emerging strategic industries. It may still need to be improved in this respect.
[Explanation] Tibet, Guizhou, and Yunnan, the top three GDP growth rates in 2020, have set their GDP growth targets for 2021 to be above 8%.
It can be seen that with the confidence that the economy will grow against the trend in 2020, the GDP growth targets of these three provinces in 2021 are still relatively high.
[Concurrent] Wan Zhe, Economist, Academic Committee Member of Pangu Think Tank
They all belong to some provinces in the southwest, so in the past, the base of their economic aggregates should be relatively small.
In recent years, (the state) has given them a relatively large policy support and development. One is poverty alleviation.
The second is the "Belt and Road Initiative", and the third is the imbalance and inadequacy of the economy.
How do we make it more balanced and adequate? In fact, the central government has made a lot of adjustments and transfers. Therefore, the overall economic growth of these three provinces and autonomous regions in recent years has been relatively bright.
Last year, they were actually relatively little affected by the epidemic. Then they (they) should continue to maintain such a development trend and speed.
[Contemporary period] Recently, the "World Economic Outlook Report" released by the International Monetary Fund shows that the global economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2021, and the Chinese economy will grow by 8.1%.
In this regard, Wan Zhe said that compared with the optimistic forecasts of some international institutions on the Chinese economy, the economic growth of more than 20 provinces in China for 2021 is set at 6% to 8%, which is a reasonable range.
[Concurrent] Wan Zhe, Economist, Academic Committee Member of Pangu Think Tank
The growth target we currently set is slightly lower than the international expectations for us, indicating that we still have more room and space.
I think that we actually see this range of 6% to 8% is more reasonable.
We all know that before the epidemic, China's economic growth rate had shifted from a high speed to a medium high speed.
For example, (growth rate) 6% is already a medium-high speed. We just said that we need to have a full-year plan, so we have to set this goal, healthy growth, sustainable growth, and high-quality growth.
Reporter Liu Xuanting reports from Beijing
Editor in charge: [Li Yuxin]