North Korea's "Permanent Missing Number" Revival-What is the message hidden in the party convention?

January 30, 11:54

"I highly recommend Kim Jong Eun as the'general secretary'."



The Workers' Party of Korea party convention held until January 12 in North Korea.

The announcement of Kim Jung Eun's inauguration as "General Secretary" surprised many stakeholders.

What is the aim of the revival of the title, which has been seen as a "retired number"?

And what kind of message was hidden in the party convention for the first time in five years?


(Chinese Directorate General Yoshimitsu Nagano, International Department Reporter Takahide Nagasago)

What is "General Secretary"?

"General Secretary" appointed by Kim Jung Eun.

In North Korea's "Korean Dictionary", it says "a leader who has full responsibility for the Workers' Party of Korea, or his position."



In other words, it is the "top of the party".



In North Korea, in 1966, during the time of Mr. Jung Eun's grandfather Kim Il Sung (Kim Il Sung), the post of "General Secretary" was established, and Mr. Il Sung took that position.

Then, Mr. Kim Jong Il (Kim Jong Il) also became the "General Secretary".



The North Korean constitution stipulates that "the state will carry out all activities under the guidance of the party."

In other words, the "general secretary" who is the head of the party is the highest authority in the country.

The aim of the "permanent absence" revival

Kim Jung-eun has positioned his father, Jung-il, who died in 2011, as the "eternal general secretary," and has used the titles "first secretary" and "chairman."



Regarding the revival of the "General Secretary" for the first time in 10 years, an official of the Workers' Party of Korea said, "To be honest, I was surprised because General Secretary Kim Jong Il was the" Eternal General Secretary. " Was heard.



Associate Professor Atsuhito Isozaki of Keio University, who is familiar with North Korean politics, analyzes as follows.

"Mr. Kim Jung-eun's previous" First Secretary "and" Party Chairman "have been transitional posts, indicating that the" General Secretary "is the top socialist system. It's a form that overturned the "permanent absence". It showed off to the country that it would be on par with the father and grandfather. "



" However, with Kim Jung Eun being elected as "General Secretary", something big It is unlikely that there will be any changes. This party convention focused on strengthening the party's leadership toward the nation, and as a symbolic move, it was attached to the post called "General Secretary" that the predecessor was in charge of. become"

"Marshal clothes" released for the first time

Kim Jung-eun is in line with his grandfathers, who are worshiped as the "founding father."

The aim of increasing its authority can be seen from the appearance released this time.

This is Mr. Jung Eun in military uniform, which was broadcast on North Korean national television.

1 star on the shoulder boards.

It is a rank emblem indicating "Marshal".

It is the first time that the military uniform as a marshal has been released since the military leader "Marshal Republic" was released in 2012.



In fact, the pure white military uniform is known as the appearance of his grandfather Ilson in the early days of the Korean War.

It seems to emphasize the image of a "strong leader" like his grandfather who led the battle with the United States and other UN forces.



North Korea is now heavily burdened with sanctions by the UN Security Council, the new coronavirus, and the "triple pain" of natural disasters.



In particular, as a measure against the infection of the new corona, the border with China, which is the largest trading partner, was closed, and the amount of trade with China last year decreased by 80.7% from the previous year, the lowest in the past 20 years.

At the party convention, Jung-eun summed up the economic plan up to last year, saying, "The goals we had set were extremely unachieved in almost all sectors."

We clearly acknowledge the economic downturn.



On that basis, we set out a new economic plan under the banner of "self-reliance and self-sufficiency."



Under these circumstances, the appointment of "General Secretary" and the appearance of "Marshal" in military uniform.

It is believed that the aim is to call on the people in distress to "unify with one heart" under Mr. Jung Eun.

Is my sister Yojeong "demoted"?

This time, the position of Kim Jung-eun's younger sister, Yo-jong, has also changed.



In contrast to Mr. Jung Eun, he was no longer in the post of "Political Bureau Candidate" that he had been with.

Mr. Yojeong has played a role in representing North Korea's position against the United States and South Korea, but there are speculations that he may have been "demoted" due to lack of outstanding results.



On the other hand, Mr. Yojeong, like other members of the leadership, appears at the party convention venue with Mr. Jung Eun and sits in the seat immediately behind him.

Associate Professor Isozaki points out that it may not be called "demotion".

Keio University Associate Professor Atsuhito Isozaki


"Actually, Mr.

Yojeong

has been out of the post of a candidate for political bureau, and he goes in and out repeatedly. So the title is not so important. Mr. Yojeong It is hard to say that he was demoted, and since he was in the venue with Kim Jung Eun, there is no doubt that he has a special role. He will continue to play a role of assisting and supporting his brother. Expected to go "

Message to the "greatest enemy"



Another notable

feature of the

party convention,

"Focusing on Suppressing and Surrendering America, Its Biggest Enemy,"

was Kim Jung-eun's first mention of US policy after the US presidential election. did.



Although he didn't name him, he set out to confront the new Biden administration.

He emphasized the policy of promoting

the production

of

miniaturization and weight reduction of

nuclear weapons

development of tactical nuclear weapons

▽ super-large nuclear warheads



in order to strengthen nuclear and missile development

.





On the other hand, it is Professor Shunji Hiraiwa of Nanzan University who analyzes that "confrontation" is not all about.



Professor Hiraiwa focused on the military parade after the party convention.

North Korea just held a military parade last October, and it is unusual to continue in such a short period of time.

Among them, the SLBM = submarine-launched ballistic missile, which seems to be a new model, with the words "North Pole Star 5" appears.



However, there were no ICBM = intercontinental ballistic missiles claiming that North Korea could attack the entire continental United States.

From here, Professor Hiraiwa points out that the attitude of both "confrontation" and "dialogue" toward the United States can be read.

Professor Shunji Hiraiwa of Nanzan University


"ICBM was introduced in October last year, so I think there was a judgment that it was not necessary to make it appear, but North Korea is still making a final decision on the possibility of including dialogue with the United States. It can be said that he did not do this. At this party convention, he is wary of the United States, but he also conveys that there is a good chance that he will respond to the dialogue depending on the response of the Byden administration. I think"

"New seeds of instability"

North Korea has implications for the possibility of "dialogue."

However, in terms of "confrontation," he showed an unprecedented attitude.

Yu Koizumi, a military analyst and specially appointed assistant professor at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo, pays attention to the short-range ballistic missiles and rocket artillery that appeared in the military parade.

Combined with Kim Jung Eun's mention of "tactical nuclear weapons" at the party convention, the analysis is as follows.

"'Tactical nuclear' is a small, short-range nuclear weapon intended for use on the battlefield. The short-range ballistic missiles and rocket guns that appeared in the military parade are equipped with both nuclear and normal warheads. Yes, and based on the speeches at the party convention, I would have wanted to say that these could also be used as "tactical nuclear weapons."

North Korea has so far justified the development of nuclear weapons as a "deterrent" to the United States.

However, Assistant Professor Koizumi points out that the introduction of "tactical nuclear weapons" with a short range may be a sign of a new nuclear strategy with South Korea and Japan in mind.

Yu Koizumi, Assistant Professor, Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo


"If we really start to mount nuclear warheads on these rocket guns and missiles, it will be a new source of instability in the situation on the Korean Peninsula. In a way that reflects this, it seems that North Korea is thinking about a new nuclear doctrine (nuclear strategy), and I got the impression that various weapons have emerged to match it. "

How the international community responds

North Korea talked about its nuclear and missile development policies in detail at a party convention and went to a military parade in an unusually short period of time.



Professor Hiraiwa of Nanzan University interprets the message to the international community as follows.

Professor Shunji Hiraiwa, Nanzan University


"

Imagine that the

United States or the international community will strengthen their defense capabilities in this way depending on how they respond to North Korea. By doing so, their attitude toward the United States will change. I think that there is such a purpose to seek out. ”



“ Originally,

I think

that such military technology should be secretly developed and made available. However, in the case of North Korea, we dare to develop our own. The message is to show the international community what they are aiming for and say, "If you want to prevent it, respond to the dialogue that North Korea wants."

Kim Jung-eun, who has the same "general secretary" as his grandfather and father and is trying to strengthen the system, how far will he promote nuclear and missile development?



For Japan, which aims for "complete, verifiable and irreversible destruction" of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction, closer cooperation with the new administration of Biden in the United States and related countries such as South Korea will be required.

Yoshimitsu Nagano



Reporter


,

General Bureau of China

Joined in 2006


After working at the Seoul branch office, he is


currently in Beijing


covering the

situation in North Korea and

China-

North Korea

relations.

Takashi Nagasago, British Interdisciplinary



Reporter


Joined in 2007 In

charge of coverage of North Korea in Beijing


from 2014 to

2018

Currently

in charge of coverage of the Korean Peninsula in the

International Department